Ellierouge

Bitcoin ~ Crypto

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc short I

Still slow pa. De-risked half...

Alright, fast forward 6 hours and still no real action achieved.

Personally to me, I really wanted to see a move down on late Tuesday or early Wednesday and the fact we haven't seen that yet is either because the market is in extended range territory, reversing late in the week, or ultra bullish.

I still rather think it's still the former, because that's how bottoms form.

I talked about this before and you would know I believe the macro bottom is in, and so that means this short is just playing the range as the bottom forms and the range extends far.

That is what we are trading now, with mostly longs 60k -> 66k and now mostly shorts back down from above 66k as we have been doing.

We have been executing that properly, but with this local price action on a weekday, getting this compound for the win really has been tough.

My conviction for lower is still very much present, but again, mental strain pairs up with holding period around entry, so I'm just looking to reduce size some more.

Means a proper derisk, to quarter size now.

I know, that's pushing it to fairly low size now.

But it's for good reason. When the market is boring, you want your execution to be boring. When the market moves fast, you generally want to perform fast moves. If we were to drop, then that means to not take any partials, until we see new lows to still turn this into a proper win unless we receive confirmation and reason to increase size again.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc short I and short III

Still holding, price still acting stubbornly, not moving much.

Would be exiting more aggressive short if it wasn't half size but reduced size on the aggressive compound does help to hold for longer and keep management flexible.

Personally awaiting NYO where I expect reversal volatility again on this type of day (the latest Thursday). Until then we'll just have to hold and sit through.

As mentioned, as long as the avwap holds, the overall countertrend short idea can still be milked further into new lows once more, so that's the goal.

So idea of lower still very much present, but with reduced size and careful management on the compounded exposure.

Posting this reminder because it helps through these times of chop, preventing mistakes, etc etc.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc shorts VI

So far a good reaction on the reshort. Still expecting lower

With again, a good reaction and initial follow through on the short.

Third attempt shorting the 64k region to new lows with the first two ending in BE's.

Turbulence through a Tuesday NYO is expected but reminding you I expect lower here and bias is still bearish on the daily.

Mmd with $eth persisting, order flow overextended and local levels (e.g. Monday high) holding price which continues to support this short idea.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc

Another BE, reshorted again.

Same plan, same confluences, but we just received another sweep stopping out the remainder and ending up break even for a second time.

Some trades are easy, soms are hard.

But I still think we drop. So I shorted once more.

Certainly the last attempt before giving up and just watching it drop or not.

So with that said, a last attempt indeed on this idea.

Can we get six wins in a row this time?

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc shorts vi

Alright! Here we drop again, off the second short entry we took 2 hours ago. With our short bias and local timed entry and appearances such as $eth mmd, tpo and order flow confirmation.

To me, this is another nice spot to shave off initials nice and clean.

Yes, still expecting lower and new lows, still expecting bearish continuation.

But arrogance doesn't pay. We did make new lows already on CME and the plan already completed so this short is slightly more on the wishful side of the spectrum.

It's still a short, but we act accordingly, take profit into local liquidity, you know the drill.

So so far, so good, as we plan for the sixth win in a row.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc shorts VI

And here we drop, new lows loading. 6th win in a row now very close.

Can you feel it?

Not just a trade.

With this one, we are getting close to breaking the cycle where we kept on getting 5 wins in a row, 3 times.

This time is different.

6th inc.

No jynxes.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc shorts VI

Nice initial drop ✅️, shaved some initial profits off here.

Alright, plan going well, caught the weekends top so far.

We received a nice drop of half a grand up until this point.

Again a good point to take off some initial profits, exactly what I've done.

Keeping the dream alive at all times.

Catching tops and bottoms, longs and shorts, live for the world to see.

Still expecting new lows, where we lock in our sixth win in a row if it happens.

I am confident as usual.

Good night.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc

My next trade, is another short. Can we get six wins in a row?

Alright, here we are, with last long called and ridden from 63.4k towards the weekly open, we are back at a clean 5 win streak, all for the world to see, all in live time.

That was a long, a "cheeky" long so to speak, against my bearish daily bias. But the confluences and setup was clean.

Time moves on however, we are now Sunday already, and as you know, my main bias is still bearish on the daily timeframes.

In alignment, we posted and elaborated not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, but 5 confluences so far as to why we shorted above 66k, shorted above 65.5k as a first compound, and why we are starting to short again now as a second compound on top of the initial 66.3k short.

So this short, is indeed just a plain and logical compound into that trend, catching the last remnants of it IMO, as I indeed still believe we see new lows, also stated before.

Confluences named again below:

➡️FOMC reversal still to complete
➡️A vwap rejection
➡️mmd $btc-$eth
➡️The magic 66k level as a major pivot
➡️Sentiment

There are more confluences, also locally speaking. But I'll leave that up to you. As the astute observer and follower will know, will know very well why another short on top of the downtrend.

So after the last longs, which, were a clear countertrend long, as well as the scalp longs here in the weekend, I'm no longer interested in longs, and only look to short again, to catch more price action on the downwind side of the trend.

It's been a pleasure so far, but let's not underestimate this trend, let's not underestimate the impact and meaning of new lows below 62.2k and the liquidity there, and for the ones who understand references and follow me closely, let's not underestimate the loudness of the dog's bark.

Woof, woof.

[Ellierouge @Ellierouge2]

@astronomer_zero Thanks Astro 🫡

[CGT Trader @CGT_Trader]

$BTC

Open interest is once again at extremely elevated levels.

Throughout this choppy market phase, every time open interest has reached similar levels, it has marked a pivot both for open interest and for price.

On average, those OI resets came with price moves of roughly 5% as leverage was flushed out of the market.

If history repeats itself, a move back toward the 65K region could be a realistic scenario.

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

Anyone ready for another scalpable long?

[Ellierouge @Ellierouge2]

@astronomer_zero

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc recap

5 trades, 5 wins ✅ All called live.

66.3k short (short III) still open as FOMC reversal completes.

Pretty good month of July since last review.

Last streak ended in 5 wins in a row but contained 2 BE's. This time, we scored 5 wins in 5 trades so far, with indeed 0 losses per definition and 0 BE's.

Streak is not done yet, we look for more.

But first, we look for the FOMC reversal to complete, and the story of short III to complete, which is still open.

It's been a pleasure sharing every single trade live with you.

[CGT Trader @CGT_Trader]

$BTC

Same sh*t, different year.

During the last bear market, we saw three major HTF sweeps of the lows.

On top of that, we swept the low of the last major bull market correction.

The third and final sweep ultimately marked the bear market bottom.

This cycle has followed a very similar structure. We’ve seen the same major sweeps in the same order.

After the final sweep in 2022, a period of choppy price action within a tight range followed.

I think that’s a realistic scenario this time as well.

It’s not impossible that we sweep the lows one more time, but it’s also highly likely that we keep ranging until Q4 before the final breakout to the upside occurs.

These are my two main scenarios I’m watching right now, but either way, I don’t think it’s up only from here.

[Ellierouge @Ellierouge2]

@astronomer_zero

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

And so the answer is now revealed.

We indeed got 5 wins in a row again.

5 has been a cursed number for us.

3 times now we reached 5 wins, 1 loss, 5 wins, 1 loss.

Let's see if this run breaks the cycle.

[Blasto @iBlasto_]

$BTC

[CGT Trader @CGT_Trader]

$BTC

We swept last week’s lows and got a strong bounce, reclaiming last week’s open.

Now, a retest of this weekly open, and maybe even a sweep of this week’s high, is extremely likely.

Beyond that, I don’t currently see much reason to expect this rally to continue, and I think that area is where we’re most likely to see a reversal in the form of a swing failure pattern.

[Ellierouge @Ellierouge2]

@astronomer_zero

[Astronomer @astronomer_zero]

$btc

Kitty cat dashing her way to "the safe house"