Elo Predicts!

🏆2023 Squiggle Overall Champion
👥Discord: my work:

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

Tips for Round 14
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#AFL #afldogscrows #aflcatssuns #afldeesdons #aflnortheagles #aflportswans #afltigerslions #aflsaintsgiants

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

It's been a while! Flat out with other projects, I have had no time to post here consistently. One day I'll write something to automate it all...

Predicted #AFL ladder after round 13
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[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

Two rounds to go!

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Predicted A-League ladder with a month to go

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Predicted A-League ladder with a month to go

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Predicted #AFL ladder after round 2

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@onepercentas I was subscribed to Kayo when it was $20 a month and my phone plan gave me a $10 credit. Since my wife and I switched phone providers, I haven't been subscribed.

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@TheWestSport

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

Tonight's prediction

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#AFL predicted ladder after round 1

[Max Barry @SquiggleAFL]

Round 1 by the models. https://t.co/Y0nD8y7G2N

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

Round 1 tips: https://t.co/jmtuVsXWWd

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🏈Scores on Discord with Marcus: https://t.co/I1XpzSvKq8

#AFL #football #round1

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

@insightlane Sorry, I explained that poorly. Each team's rating reverts towards the average at the end of each season.

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Similar to Carlton, I forgot to show up yesterday to get my best work in front of the fans. Here's my predicted #AFL ladder, before the game last night.

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@insightlane Each team's rating reverts to the average (1500) at the end of each season

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

@insightlane It means that the model thinks a given team will only finish in places 1-8, that is, won't finish 9th or lower. It's due to the rating gap. There are nine teams with a rating of 1550 or higher, and then a 100-point gap to the rest except one (Sydney)

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

@CianLangan Yes, there is a travel penalty depending on the state. This means that for neutral games played in the NT for example, both teams get a travel penalty.

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

@insightlane The model definitely thinks there are clear favourites. It will even out a bit as the season progresses.

[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

Running at 100% so far this season.

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[Elo Predicts! @EloPredicts]

This model is running at 0.83 log loss this season.

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