Tebiro

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Hunter Biden says he has not made a "single dollar" on his crypto memecoin $LAPTOP

[Jeeniuz @jeeniuzx]

Positioning & Crowded Trades

- One of the biggest mistakes we make as Traders is asking:

“Am I right about the direction?”

Institutional dudes ask another question:

“Who is already positioned this way?”

Because a great trade idea can become a terrible trade when everyone is already on the same side….

So lets Talk About this

- What is positioning?

Positioning tells you how market participants are exposed

For currencies we got one useful public source is the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report, which breaks down futures positions held by different categories of traders

One category traders often watch is:

- Leveraged Funds

This includes participants such as hedge funds and commodity trading advisors

We then can compare:

Long contracts − Short contracts = Net positioning

What do I mean by this:

Lets take
- EUR futures

+100k longs − 40k shorts = +60k net long

That doesnt tell you EUR/USD must rise…

It tells you something potentially more interesting:

A lot of participants are already positioned for EUR strength.

Can you notice the difference?

- Why crowded trades are dangerous?

Imagine:

Everyone is bullish EUR

Then - EUR/USD rises

Leads to Positioning becoming extremely long

Then the ECB delivers a slightly dovish surprise….

Where There arent many new buyers left

Leads to Existing longs start closing

In the end… Selling creates more selling

This is where a relatively small fundamental surprise can produce a much “larger-than-expected” move

The catalyst doesnt necessarily have to be huge….

Sometimes the problem is simply:

The market was positioned for perfection.

More on this in Next Tweet.

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzx Yessir, taking notes 🗒️

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@Sid_Mystique Are you still in this long?

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz Telegram

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@andrew_nfx Trading

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@YShirley_XAUUSD Sl hit

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz Noooo, I will miss your tweetsssss

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz News came out positive, any changes in your plan?

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz Should we worry about that little gap?

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz Oh 🥲🥲🥲

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz I have the same issue ughhh

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@Leizltrader Leizl is the goat 🐐🫶🏻

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@Leizltrader @meskakarh Group is so dead..

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz couldn’t agree more 💯

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@flexxtrades 10k

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz 😭😭😭😭

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz No worries !! 😊

[Tebiro @EltabirIbrahim]

@jeeniuzz I am actually a woman 🤭🤣