Entropic Negentropy

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@norse____god @aphrosociety https://t.co/zLqmyXFPXw

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

"The other thing I get irritated with is people who say, 'Elon is just a business guy, he was gifted the money, and he's just investing in all of this,' when he was really deeply involved in a lot of the decisions, not all of them were perfect, but he cared very much about engine material selection, propellent selection. For years he'd be kinda telling me to get off that hydrogen peroxide stuff, liquid oxygen is the only proper oxidizer for this, and the times i've gone through the factories with him, we're talking very detailed things about how this weld is made, how this subassembly goes together, what are startup/shutdown behaviors of the different things, so he is really in there at a very detailed level, and i think that he is the best modern example of someone that can effectively micromanage some decisions on things on both tesla and spacex to some degree, where he cares enough about it. I worry a lot that he's stretched too thin, that you get boring company, neuralink, and twitter, because i know i've got limits on how much i can pay attention to that i have to box off different amounts of time, and i look back at my aerospace side of things, and i did not go all in on that, or commit myself at a level that would've taken to be successful...yea it's kinda a weird thing having a discussion with the richest man in the world right now and he operates on a level that is still very much in my wheelhouse on the technical side of things"

--John Carmack

Is this what you'd expect a 140+ who is independently wealthy, to say about someone who is 105, really?

You'd have to believe: John Carmack is not nearly that smart, or that IQ differential wouldn't clearly manifest in the context described, or that he is working through tremendous amounts of cognitive dissonance and/or publicly lying.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

the question is: if elon's generic claim about how stocks work in the long term, and his specific claim about how he grows his wealth right now are both trivially untrue locally, then what must be true implicitly to reconcile them?

your position is that elon is stupid, and this is a mistake of reasoning, and that elon just doesn't actually know how stock prices are calculated. that's a perfectly valid way of metabolizing the contradiction.

my position is that elon is not stupid, and that there is often a difference between what someone says, and what they mean, and that this likewise applies to people who are not stupid.

the stock value = what elon said
the fundamentals = what elon meant

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

elon is making the implicit assumption that over a long enough time horizon, the value of a stock is predominantly determined by the fundamentals, so there is an inevitable convergence between price and fundamentals that is taken for granted.

his mental model is that any wealth appreciation that is untethered to the fundamentals is ephemeral, and should be discounted as noise.

the "nitpick," then, is you and destiny being so eager to score a point against the big bad of your tribe, that you begin to slip into a hyper-literal, local argumentation as a means of carving out territory and reaffirming your priors about elon's intelligence.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@elonmusk @farzyness @JOBhakdi “electric aircraft” 👀

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@perlyngemark @JOBhakdi They get publicly released a month behind. So we’ll get November data sometime in the next few weeks.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@robinivski @anthonypesec Wow what an excellent post. There’s not a modicum of motivated reasoning present!

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@TMFAssociates do you really think a company missing their revenue targets by 5% is anything but noise?

with some cursory research, it does appear that you do enjoy prophesying the impending failure of everything musk. you even use the same argument 5 years apart!

https://t.co/VYOuQhj0A6

[Tim Farrar @TMFAssociates]

When your Starlink story is falling apart, and funding needs are urgent, you have to switch to selling a different vision...

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@FredLambert @joelcan Fred, I thought that we didn’t weight things that happen in beta tests that highly until it scales, or is that just your criteria when it comes to Tesla?

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

i didn't answer your trump question because it's not ultimately salient. musk's personality is a known quantity, and, in fact, his more recent reconciliation with trump is evidence to the contrary of your thesis--that he has an intractably corrosive way of relating to people.

no, my evidence that he manages talent well is not *mostly* based on things he promises he's going to deliver. it's based on looking at the things he already has delivered and looking at how he delivered them, and what people close to operations consistently say about elon's role in achieving those things.

in terms of the camera only question, your framing implicitly assumes he is wrong. which is certainly something you can believe, but you should probably disambiguate that which you believe and that which is objectively knowable at this point in time. maybe his stubbornness with this issue was the wrong choice. maybe it's not. right now, it's in superposition, so celebrations one way or the other seem premature. in terms of the roadster and the cybertruck, again, the same problem applies. why is a roadster that flies a dumb direction to go in? you just assume this is true and state it confidently. that's not an argument.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

"do they execute or leave in frustration" is a false dichotomy.

it also assumes the reason for their departures beyond what can reasonably be inferred. i don't think anyone denies that working for elon can be frustrating. do you deny that working as a navy seal can be frustrating?

is evoking frustration in subordinates inherently a bad thing?

is it frustration?--the feeling of being upset or annoyed, especially because of inability to change *or achieve something*

is it burnout?--the state of physical, emotional, and mental exhaustion from prolonged or excessive stress, often from work, leading to loss of motivation

notice what i emphasized in the definition of frustration. if you require your employees to routinely solve incredibly difficult (often thought impossible) problems, would it not be expected that frustration be a natural byproduct of placing such high expectations?

let's see what your second example of this pattern has to say about elon.

andrej karpathy:

"i would say definitely elon runs his companies in an extremely unique style. i don't actually think that people appreciate how unique it is. you sort like even read about it, but you don't understand it, i think. it's like even hard to describe. i don't even know where to start. but number 1 is like, he likes very small, strong, highly technical teams. i would say at companies by default the teams grow and they get large. elon was always like a force against growth. i would have to work and expend effort to hire people. i would have to like basically plead to hire people. and then the other thing is that at big companies it's really hard to get rid of low performers. and i think elon is very friendly to by default getting rid of low performers. so actually i had to fight for people to keep them on the team. because he would by default want to remove people. so keep a small, strong, highly technical team. no middle management. that is kind of like non-technical. so that's number one. number two is kinda like the vibes of how everything runs. and how it feels when he sort of walks into the office. he wants it to be a vibrant place. people are walking around. they're pacing around. they're working on exciting stuff. they're charting something, they're coding. he doesn't like stagnation. he doesn't like for it to look that way. he doesn't like large meetings. he always encourages people to like leave meetings if they are not being useful. so you actually do see this. it's a large meeting and if you're not contributing, and you're not learning, just walk out. and this is like fully encouraged. and i think this is something that you don't normally see. i think a lot of other companies pamper their employees. the culture is that you are there to do your best technical work and there's the intensity and so on. and i think the third thing that is very unique is just how connected he is to the team. usually a ceo of a company is like a remote person five layers up who talks to their vps... that's not how he runs his companies. like he will come to the office, he will talk to the engineers. normally people spend 99% of the time speaking to the vps, he maybe spends 50%...."

https://t.co/H4OeFiqXNV

as you can see, he is clearly embittered and scorned by elon. i mean the contempt is just emanating from every word, right?? or does this just prove that highly talented people can leave his companies for reasons other than what you suggest?

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@ewinsberg @TMTLongShort so let's hammer down on what you actually think. maybe you can disabuse me of my prior assessment of you. does musk attract a ton of high quality talent?

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

i'm sorry, you're right. i should be more explicit. you have very sloppy reasoning and poor epistemics that betray one of two things.

1. a dispositionally irrational relationship to everything elon

or

2. a deficit in iq.

or, more likely, both. either way, functionally, you are retarded.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@ewinsberg @TMTLongShort Hopelessly retarded

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

it is preprogrammed... using AI simulations. what you call preprogramming, people who know what they are talking about call reinforcement learning. some of that initial data was gathered from an initial teleoperation of mocap movements, but the actual execution video that elon responded to is not teleoperated.

teleoperation implies real time human intervention; preprogramming does not, so you are equivocating.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

what do you think this is?

if your system can't survive with pressures from competing systems, it is not robust enough to warrant the laudits you give it.

there is no crying in the casino. the USSR also tried to undermine the US; the only difference is it failed.

you should try introspecting about the inevitable contradictions that arise from a socialist state engaging in realpolitik--how your sacred ideals are invariably shelved for crass, tribal, myopic, survival. it's all the same.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@kirkburgess @TSLAFanMtl I think you are missing the fact that, at a certain point, tesla’s cost structure allows them to price the service at a cost where it begins disrupting car ownership. The market is going to be so much larger than what it is now.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

on the contrary. recognizing the unconscious drivers of behavior and belief can be of great importance for those who wish to parse reality clearly.

the fact that arrogant was the adjective that came to mind for you is itself diagnostic considering your evident arrogance here. mirror mirror.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@47fucb4r8c69323 @gbrl_dick everyone has a tribe.

you are laundering them basically as much as anyone else does fwiw, i just felt compelled to point it out.

[Entropic Negentropy @EntropicN]

@47fucb4r8c69323 @gbrl_dick well i won't call you an idiot then.

i will, however, suggest that you are laundering some tribal feelings as objective analysis.