The Bitcoin low could be in for the cycle, price wise only. Doesn’t need deeper.
But I’d argue strongly it’s going to need 3-5 months (sideways) to build a base from which the next Cycle can launch from.
This might be the most important chart nobody is paying attention to right now.
S&P 500 on top, yield curve in the middle, Fed Funds rate on the bottom. Nearly 30 years of data.
Before every major decline over the last three decades, the same pattern played out. New all-time highs. The yield curve inverts and then un-inverts. The Fed starts cutting rates.
The Dot Com bubble. The Great Financial Crisis. The Pandemic.
Currently, S&P 500 is near all-time highs. Yield curve recently came out of an incredibly long and deep inversion. Fed cutting rates from the highest level since 2007.
I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. I just find interesting patterns in the market. As Mark Twain once said, history doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.
But if something bigger does play out, we're all going to look back at this chart and wonder how it was so obvious.
Then again… I know, I know. "This time is different." It always is, right?
Pela primeira vez na história, a Strategy comprou bitcoin sem vender uma única ação de $MSTR.
$1 bilhão em bitcoin. Financiamento: 100% $STRC. Diluição para acionistas: zero.
Leia isso de novo.
Semana passada, a compra foi ~75% STRC e ~25% MSTR.
Essa semana:
→ STRC vendido: 10.028.363 ações, $1 bilhão líquido
→ MSTR vendido: 0 ações
13.927 $BTC adquiridos a $71.902 por bitcoin, 100% com dinheiro de preferred stock.
Aqui está o que isso significa na prática:
A Strategy construiu uma máquina de aquisição de bitcoin que funciona sem tocar no equity dos acionistas comuns.
O STRC paga ~11,5% de dividendo, não converte em ações, e investidores de renda fixa compram felizes porque o yield é melhor que qualquer bond comparável.
O investidor de STRC recebe yield. O acionista de MSTR recebe acumulação de BTC por ação sem diluição. O Saylor recebe bitcoin.
Teoricamente, todo mundo ganha.
780.897 BTC no balanço. $59 bilhões investidos. E agora com $21,6 bilhões em STRC ainda disponível pra emitir.
Isso não é uma compra de bitcoin. É a prova de conceito de uma nova arquitetura de capital corporativo.
Quarterly candle view of the Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle. Just like all prior Cycles, despite the relentless narrative changes you hear.
Don't get hung up on price. Time matters more than Price. Time gives structure.
JUST IN: Michael Saylor says "There isn't enough Bitcoin for everyone." 🐂
Strategy is currently mass buying BTC via STRC at ~3.5x faster than miners can mine it 🚀
BREAKING:
Tom Lee on CNBC: "Bitcoin bottom is in."
This is the same man who called the 2020 bottom.
BTC pumped +600% after that call.
Every major BTC rally started with maximum fear.
This moment feels exactly like 2020.
You've been warned. Act accordingly.
When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000?
Depends on what growth rate you assume.
At historical BTC growth (~67%): 2031
Power law fair value: 2033
Tech-style returns (~25–31%): 2036–2038
S&P-like returns (~15%): 2045
Gold-like returns (~13%): 2046
Even modest assumptions eventually converge to $1M.