EquiHive Insights

I decode markets with AI/ML. Tracking Institutional Flows & Trading Telemetry daily. 0-bloat. Pure Data → Alpha 📊. Curated Insights for serious market minds.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

This NVIDIA of Taiwan - TSMC - has single‑handedly propelled the TAIEX (Taiwan Weighted) Index into the sky over the last 18 months. It’s been a phenomenal run, accounting for ~42% of the index’s market capitalization.

Take a look at the relative performance chart of TAIEX — it outpaces gold by a mile, which says a lot considering how well gold has performed as an alternate asset class.

I’ve added global macro events (primarily shocks) as vertical timeline markers. India’s Nifty, the S&P 500, and TAIEX all converged around the same cumulative‑returns level when tariff shocks rattled Asian economies. Soon after, TAIEX picked up pace, it surged 50% higher than S&P500 and 100 % higher than Nifty, only to hit the brakes during the US–Iran conflict and the resulting crude‑oil spike.

Following the first ceasefire announcement, TAIEX added another parabolic 100 % relative gain in less than three months — before the breakdown of that ceasefire erased over 50 % of those returns. Yet, remarkably, it has now climbed back to the same level.

Extraordinary run so far, but it all depends on the AI gold rush. Let’s hope this momentum continues for a while — at least until other industries find their feet and learn to survive alongside what is fast becoming the revolution of the century, a.k.a. AI.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Yields should retreat to a comfortable level, at least to < 5% and then to < ~4.75% as a first step.

The persistent inflation necessitated a sudden change of policy stance, triggering a surprise rate hike in the middle of a rate cut cycle, which further worked against Gold.

Precious metals lose their relevance in such market conditions due to lack of yield or utility other than serving as safe asset, especially as the opportunity cost spikes (with rate hike).

However this is only temporary and Gold will soon be back to limelight as real rates peak and geopolitical risks persist. Further, if these aggressive hikes continue, even if justified, they'll heighten recession risks.
Ultimately, Gold will be Gold again.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Do we really have someone in the government who observes what is happening on a daily basis? There should be daily updates and discussions among cabinet ministers and the PM -- not as a mere formality, but in a true sense, similar to how a project is run. It seems that 3rd tenure at the helm has made this govt completely disassociated from public feedback. All we see are empty, meaningless words and time-wasting discussions without substance.

The PM should regularly engage with the media and answer questions comfortably. We shouldn't have to wait for an election rally to hear the PM address the public. While we copy many nonsensical things from the US, there're also good practices we could follow. All we ask is for the government to listen, engage, and think constructively. I wonder why there is no direct engagement with the press; it should not be a one-way broadcast all the time.

The Govt can't continue to ignore the capital market if we're serious about attracting more investments -- especially given today's precarious geopolitical situation.

And I'm sure it's another waste of time writing but couldn't resist raising it. Let's hope for some sanity from both - the govt and the market.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

As expected, Nifty gave away all the moderate gains and went down by 0.4%, so a total of 0.7% intraday fall from the day's high.

A mild uptick in crude prices, triggering reversal.
Only hangseng holding onto gains for now, Taiwan & Japan markets closed for the day, so they ended in green with good 1-2% rise.

Nifty is on track to create the record of 8-week losing streak, With just 1 more trading day for this week (Friday being holiday for Indian market), Nifty is almost certain to register it!

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🌐 MARKET PULSE - LIVE SNAPSHOT:

Crude Oil starts correcting. Bond yields too are falling after long time, though it still stays above 5.2.

Nikkei outperformed all asian markets with 2.37% gains. Nifty 50, Taiex and Hangseng are staying in green with less than 0.5% appreciation. Kospi is trading with negative bias with around -0.5% fall.

Except Pharma and Metal, other sectoral and broader markets performing okay in India, with Bank and Auto leading the charge, > 1% gains.

Nifty has gone up by about 65 points or ~0.3% up. Wondering when it will reverse as you never know for sure these days.

#Nifty #Nikkei

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🌐 MARKET PULSE - LIVE SNAPSHOT:

Crude Oil starts correcting. Bond yields too are falling after long time, though it still stays above 5.2.

Nikkei outperformed all asian markets with 2.37% gains. Nifty 50, Taiex and Hangseng are staying in green with less than 0.5% appreciation. Kospi is trading with negative bias with around -0.5% fall.

Except Pharma and Metal, other sectoral and broader markets performing okay in India, with Bank and Auto leading the charge, > 1% gains.

Nifty has gone up by about 65 points or ~0.3% up. Wondering when it will reverse as you never know for sure these days.

#Nifty #Nikkei

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Wouldn't you have said otherwise if the US had stayed? Or why do you think the US doesn't have the right to decide for itself without requiring your journalistic wisdom? You have anti-establishment reporters pushing biased narratives on every issue.

I wonder why you post less about Wall Street than any other street in the world, yet you are named after it.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

@kothariabhishek This is exactly what I said when Bernstein manipulated the market with a biased and illogical report, completely failing to evaluate the structural changes to the PB commission-based model. Brokerage reports have absolutely no credibility these days.

https://t.co/DuERcaITsN

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

After posting this already, you're repeating it as if you were some "sold-out fin-fluencer". Just because some brokerage recommends, it is not necessary to simply broadcast without realizing the impact. Be a responsible business media and protect retail investors from all such clickbaits.

After having fallen over 30%, the report is quite contradictory on growth aspects. If the commission is deep-rooted to the level of shaking its growth trajectory, it is not a good business model then. If not, the visibility of growth prospects need to be explained in detail without imaginary narration.

This just an attempt to facilitate exit for institutions if not justified.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🌐 Flows, liquidity vectors &amp; momentum guardrails — with FII &amp; Retail F&amp;O positioning decoded in today’s NIFTY pulse.

🔗 Full report → https://t.co/oguiZ52M2r

📊 The brief also captures intraday liquidity tone and momentum signals shaping today’s close.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🏛️ NSE NIFTY DAILY BRIEF | 29-09-2026

📊 Macro Audit & Institutional Telemetry

🔴💤 Negative Close with muted intraday volatility & easing VIX.

📝 5-day momentum registered explosive -2.98% move, signaling violent liquidity flush conditions.

▪ Domestic investors offered limited support, failing to offset heavy foreign selling. Near‑term downside risk persists.

Institutional Cash Flow:

FII: Rs. -9980 Cr | DII: Rs. 6953 Cr

Snapshot below 👇

#NIFTYDailyBrief #EquiHive

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

F&O Options Exposure | 29-09-2026

FII (Smart Money):
└ Calls: -4.21L (Δ: ⚡ -174,988) │ Puts: +6.51L (Δ: -22,537)
└ Net Bias: -10.73L (Δ: ⚡ -152,451)
└ 🟥🟥🟥 Heavy Short

PRO (Prop Desks):
└ Calls: +1.00L (Δ: ⚡ +300,250) │ Puts: +0.45L (Δ: ⚡ -141,309)
└ Net Bias: +0.55L (Δ: ⚡ +441,559)
└ 🟩⬜⬜ Lean Long

Retail (Client):
└ Calls: +3.17L (Δ: ⚡ -118,989) │ Puts: -7.46L (Δ: ⚡ +166,920)
└ Net Bias: +10.63L (Δ: ⚡ -285,909)
└ 🟩🟩🟩 Heavy Long

F&O Futures & Divergence

🧭 FII Directional Bias (Futures):
▪ Index L/S: 0.09x [🔴 91.4% Short] (Z: -2.04) │ Net: -2.67L (+52,362 Δ)
▪ Stock FUT: +4.96L (-15,244 Δ)
▪ Confluence: 🟥 Bearish / Mixed
▪ OI Skew: Nifty Rs.36,100 Cr │ Midcap Rs.3,993 Cr

Note: It’s F&O monthly expiry today. So there is very little interpretation possible based on the current data. Lot of rollover contacts, true picture will emerge later this week.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🏛️ NSE NIFTY DAILY BRIEF | 29-09-2026

📊 Macro Audit & Institutional Telemetry

🔴💤 Negative Close with muted intraday volatility & easing VIX.

📝 5-day momentum registered explosive -2.98% move, signaling violent liquidity flush conditions.

▪ Domestic investors offered limited support, failing to offset heavy foreign selling. Near‑term downside risk persists.

Institutional Cash Flow:

FII: Rs. -9980 Cr | DII: Rs. 6953 Cr

Snapshot below 👇

#NIFTYDailyBrief #EquiHive

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

US market - current update:

Bond yields - the talk of the town!

UST 10Y now reached 19-year peak level, crossed 5.288% now.

UST 30Y now at 24-year peak, crossed 5.61% now.

The last time the 10-year yield sustained levels above 5.25% was in the summer of 2007, right before the onset of the Great Recession.

In fact, Japan and Germany 30Y bond yields are at multi-decade high. A century level peak for Japan and 17-year high for Germany.

US market is going down now due to this bond selloff. Crude prices going down a bit but fails to cheer up the market.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🏛️ NSE NIFTY DAILY BRIEF | 29-09-2026

📊 Macro Audit & Institutional Telemetry

🔴💤 Negative Close with muted intraday volatility & easing VIX.

📝 5-day momentum registered explosive -2.98% move, signaling violent liquidity flush conditions.

▪ Domestic investors offered limited support, failing to offset heavy foreign selling. Near‑term downside risk persists.

Institutional Cash Flow:

FII: Rs. -9980 Cr | DII: Rs. 6953 Cr

Snapshot below 👇

#NIFTYDailyBrief #EquiHive

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Haven't you noticed something that happens frequently these days related to crude oil prices? They usually go up during India market hours, and then Trump says something or someone spreads rumors about some imaginary deal with Iran or improved supply routes etc., which props up the US market.

Although it's not exactly a 1:1 correlation, it holds true on most days. The Indian market correction has been associated with many reasons and this is just one among them.

Be it tariffs, critical minerals, or crude oil -- everything is weaponized these days. The crude oil price is simply an effect of additional shipping costs due to uncertainties and the risks associated. This actually has nothing to do with crude production or a shortage. Once the war overhang is over, prices should come crashing down through the roof. (Or) Isn't it going to be case?

What do you think?

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Market updates:

Crude prices a bit stabilized, gave away the gains and almost flat for today.

US 10Y Yields are staying flat, providing some breathing room for equities. Gold fut is trading flat.

Kospi recovered partially and ended with -0.27% cut. Hang seng closed with -0.47%, Taiex & Nikkei closed around similar % fall.

Nifty recovered ~200 points from the low of the day, right now trading with -0.44% cut. Nifty bank and Reliance recovery helped Nifty.

Today is Sep monthly expiry. So we need to watch for CAS close if there are any anomalies.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Market updates:

Crude prices a bit stabilized, gave away the gains and almost flat for today.

US 10Y Yields are staying flat, providing some breathing room for equities. Gold fut is trading flat.

Kospi recovered partially and ended with -0.27% cut. Hang seng closed with -0.47%, Taiex & Nikkei closed around similar % fall.

Nifty recovered ~200 points from the low of the day, right now trading with -0.44% cut. Nifty bank and Reliance recovery helped Nifty.

Today is Sep monthly expiry. So we need to watch for CAS close if there are any anomalies.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Market updates:

US 10Y rises to 5.26%, keeps going up. Pulling down equities across the world. All Asian markets are down, again.

Crude prices hovering around ~100$ (for Brent $BNO ).

#Nifty is falling very quickly to another ~0.85% this morning. Pharma & Healthcare are staying in green. The rest of the sectors are all in deep red.

India VIX has risen another ~5%.

Kospi down ~0.9%
Taiwan weighted down ~0.6%
Hang seng down ~1%

Dollar Index appreciating mildly, INR depreciating as usual.

Bond yields should retreat, and oil prices should go down. However, it doesn't look like the U.S. administration is interested in either. This reckless warmongering, without the ability to either achieve victory or reach a truce, has held the world hostage for months.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

The bond market just reminded Bessent who owns the house.
US 10Y at 5.24%. Interest on the debt jumps from ~$1.3T toward $1.7T. That is the deficit trap.

#BondMarket #US10Y #EquiHive https://t.co/rPMtVD1D4y

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

How is this good news? Any US deal that actually gets signed will come with a fat compromise. Either it doesn’t happen, or it happens and India gets little beyond a photo-op that flatters Trump. This is still guesswork. We’ve already seen how slow and unresponsive this government is when it actually matters.

Piyush Goyal as Finance Minister is not a market upgrade. This is the same minister who previously dismissed Indian startups as mere "shopkeeping" and claimed that delivery apps turn young people into cheap labor for the rich. While fair criticism is acceptable, the ecosystem's failure to allow innovation to thrive should be blamed squarely on the government.

Most importantly, following Budget 2026, he asserted that the markets had “overreacted” to a “welcome” STT hike. That is simply not the mindset of someone who understands capital markets.

Also, let’s not kid ourselves. Meaningful market policy in India is never the FM’s solo call. It is primarily driven by the PMO and the Finance Ministry for fiscal policy, alongside SEBI for regulations. Changing the nameplate changes almost nothing on the ground. If it changes anything, it will only be negative.

If he really becomes FM, forget the Indian market. Time to load puts.

What the government actually needs are new faces, new ideas and some energy.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

US Bond Market Selloff and the Deficit Trap
If the 10Y stays near 5.24%, how ugly does debt servicing get? ~$1.3T is already gone. $1.7T is next.

#BondMarket

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

The bond market just reminded Bessent who owns the house.
US 10Y at 5.24%. Interest on the debt jumps from ~$1.3T toward $1.7T. That is the deficit trap.

#BondMarket #US10Y #EquiHive https://t.co/rPMtVD1D4y

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

The bond market just reminded Bessent who owns the house.
US 10Y at 5.24%. Interest on the debt jumps from ~$1.3T toward $1.7T. That is the deficit trap.

#BondMarket #US10Y #EquiHive https://t.co/rPMtVD1D4y

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

🏛️ NSE NIFTY DAILY BRIEF | 28-09-2026

📊 Macro Audit & Institutional Telemetry

🔴⚡ Negative Close with expanding intraday volatility & rising VIX.

📝 5-day momentum registered explosive -2.42% move, signaling violent liquidity flush conditions. Immediate micro-trend overrides baseline macro expectancies.

📉 Sudden downside shock - Index fell 1.6%, while volatility spiked 12.2%. Defensive flows dominate.

FII sold -5353 Cr | DII bought 5189 Cr

Snapshot below 👇

#NIFTYDailyBrief #EquiHive

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

After 3% up in the morning, Policybazaar goes down again, now down ~1.75%. Bernstein and CNBCTV18 are doing a great job in ensuring smooth exit for institutions whoever got stuck in IRDAI's storm.

[EquiHive Insights @EquiHive]

Surprised to see there are many posts since the morning.

Not 1 or 2 or 3, a total of 7 posts related to Policybazaar and Bernstein report.

https://t.co/eBQGk8F4NS
https://t.co/DEZtW1k7Ad
https://t.co/ubCs9vahle
https://t.co/gkTlPbEVTM
https://t.co/qfU2vwY8SG
https://t.co/f1kpZFDor5
https://t.co/OUo4zoh2Al

If this isn't manipulation or paid-promotion, I don't understand what to call this then!! This reeks of persistent misuse of your medium @_prashantnair

Such unnecessary repetitions should be probed @SEBI_updates as this is not looking like merely posting a news and instead they push the news.

#SEBI