Equine-Notebook

Old and Grumpy, can still pick a horse. avid race-watcher, note taker and backer of flat and all weather horses.
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[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

@GayKelleway Almost everyone that I know that has/had an interest in racing has not been able to get a bet on at a bookies for a year or two now ... The general public has moved on. I no longer bother looking most days cos I know I won't be able get more than a fiver down on anything I like .

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

6.30 Newcastle - Saisons D'Or
7/2 willhill, mgm, betuk - others 10/3
1pt Win

Been really game last two times out over this track and trip. Both times up with pace, led until well inside final furlong and collared on the line.

Had todays fav Pallas Lord a couple of lengths behind and I suspect, with just a 1lb pull for that last race, will hold form with that one tonight.

Deserves to get head in front after last two runs and the price of 7/2 seems like a fair bet to take here.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

@JonnyBetsHorses Class act, well done Jonny !

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

7.45 Newcastle - Matty Too
@ 18/1 - 4 places sky 0.75 e/w
@ 20/1 3 places all others

Rattled home in a 0-77 last time out over 7 at Newcastle, chasing home two in front in vein after they got first run. Slight drop in grade and up in trip here on stable debut for new trainer after being sold for 21k. Down to last winning mark and not without a chance at a big price, I've personally gone 0.75 e/w for the 4 places at 18's.

Last run Notes :

The one eyecatcher here was the third horse Matty Too, has shown little recently, but was able to stay on best of these all the way to the line, is now just 1lb higher than last winning mark and seems to be ready to capitalize on falling mark. This stiff 7f seemed to bring out the best after being pushed along early and seemed to be outpaced a little. Needs the stiff track and may be worth pushing out to a mile.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

We knew our fate there as soon as the gates opened, horse was given an almighty pull to stop it going forward and then settled in at the back.

I know it likes a bit of cover, but let it give me a run for my money please !

Horrible results here recently. -4 today. We will hit a winner or two soon enough. Stick with it.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

6.15 Kempton - Dayman
1pt e/w @ 11/2 + (2pts total)

Most books are showing 11/2, 888 showing 6/1, sky have 5/1 with 4 places.

Dayman seems to be coming to the boil, two runs ago was staying on well late in the race but had nowhere to go close to the line, a few horses since come out of that race and won.

Next time out upped in grade and distance but didn't seem to quite get home.

7f suits better, as will the longer run in at Kempton. Back down in grade here too. Should be competitive.

Giant worries me, which is the main reason for the e/w play.

Qualifying race notes :

Another running on late with just as much enthusiasm as the fav was Dayman. Another that always seems to run on “too late” I would rather there types of horses be at a track like Kempton or ideally Newcastle, where the tired horses out front will be stopping quicker and the late speed and stamina will be more likely to get a horse home. Ideally a drop to 75 and a 0-75 race will see this one snatch a win somewhere down the line.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

4.30 Kempton - Egoiste
2pt win @ 2/1

I had been waiting on a drift here as I liked the horse, but was wanting at least 3/1 for it to go back up against the one that beat it last time out "Stoic Sid"

Stoic has just been withdrawn, so that leaves ours with a clear-cut chance in this race now, price has been cut to 2/1, 9/4 in a couple of places, but that price seems about right to me.

Egoiste seems to have been a little unlucky the last few times it its raced, each time running into one that was well ahead of its mark or that seems to have been laid out for the race.

As long as he can keep running to that kind of form, should be best in this race.

Qualifying race notes :

both the winner Charlatan and the eventual runner up Egoiste were impressive in this race....
Jockey on Egoiste also seemed confident holding the horse together until around 1f out, when asked for an effort the horse made a challenge and was probably a little unlucky on the day to run into one here. The front pair pulled approx. 5l clear of the 3rd horse and they will be interesting when they next appear.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

Have two that I am still watching prices for at Kempton tonight. will post them up around 3pm if they get to "fair odds"

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

No good there, had a go, but Gustav much the best. Couple of maybes tomorrow, will post back between 10am and 12pm.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

7.30 Newcastle - Herakles
1pt win @ 7/1

Won well enough back in January after a wind op and a break over todays track and trip in a 0-65 grade race. (The two behind both came out and won since)

Next time out upped in grade and split a pair of horses rated in the 80's when only 3.5 lengths from eventual winner "Cover up" - that one came out again since and won a class 3 and is now rated 101.

Form is good and horse is back down in grade here, the race looks hot and the pace should be strong, but hopefully we can sit just behind the leaders and stay on better than the rest.

Qualifying race notes :

The top three all showed decent form here over the minimum trip. In a 0-65 and coming off an 11 week break and wind surgery Herakles sat in the perfect position throughout the race to take advantage of a strong early pace, sat on the heels of the pacemaker until it started to fade approaching the final furlong, then asked for an effort and had enough to hold off both Rory and Street Life who were running on from the back late on. This looked like a hot race.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

Certainly nothing from lingfield today, looks like some very competitive racing. Tough to pull most of those races apart and loads with chances.

If there is anything for this evening it will be posted in about an hour.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

Month One Done !
14.9pts profit.
21 Bets - Three wins @ 10/1, 12/1 and 12/1
plus several places @ 9/1, 15/2, 10/1, 9/2 and 5/1.

Long post alert !

The plan for March is to try and get a few more bets on the board. I will likely be moving towards win only bets.

I will likely be placing the bets the morning of the race (between 10 and 12) rather than fight with night before pricing, plus bets on the day of the race tend to protect your account a little longer.

Solid enough start to the Notebook page.

I hope to eventually add a website where you can see the notes each day and read about each of the qualifiers and why they are a yes or a no bet.

Will also get a profit and loss sheet online so that it can be viewed at all times.

Things tailed off a little towards the middle to end of February, but I hope to ramp up the bets into March. Flat racing proper back at the end of March and then into full swing by early April.

I will not be posting bets for Cheltenham or the National meeting, jumps racing is just not my thing. Plenty of decent pages out there that will be much more informed and much better at that than me.

I'll keep my money in my pocket and aim at cold Tuesday nights at Newcastle instead. None of the Glamour, none of the £8 pints of Guinness, but hopefully plenty of profit to come for March - Stay tuned.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

Had my eye on one for later this evening hoping for a drift in price, although the horse did drift overnight, it never got quite big enough to post. Now back in to silly prices, so no more bets for this month.

Month review and plan for March to follow ...

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

I think we are due a result of some kind, still well ahead for the month, but need to kick on from here

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

updated the initial post - horse is lunar rocks, sorry.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

8.00 Wolvs – Lunar Rocks
1pts win @ 3/1 most books

A rematch here between Subaltern and Lunar Rocks. Another step up in trip this time to 1m4f and a change of headgear, alongside the 4lbs pull in weights between the last race and this may make the difference.

The last two runs Lunar rocks has seemed a little outpaced early and has stayed on towards the end of the race. Taking a chance at reversal here, but I feel like we have yet to see the best of this one and at the current price I’m willing to take a punt on further improvement to come. The pace should not be as strong so may not use up as much energy chasing the field early. Will need to be in striking distance at the final turn if we are to have a chance though.

2 LTO race notes :

Lunar Rocks, making handicap debut, in rear and always pushed along, found another gear inside final furlong and finished the race really well, with the current OR of just 46, this one has some upside to work with and should be competitive if he is able to build on this, would be good at Kempton or Newcastle 1m2f or the stiff mile seems ideal.

Going forward we may have one or two more before the end of the month, but we should still close out with a decent enough profit despite a poor run towards the end of the month.

Stay tuned.

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

@JonnyBetsHorses Well done Jonny !

[Equine-Notebook @Equine_Notebook]

6.35 Southwell - Wiseacre
0.75pts e/w @ 16/1 4 places
Available on Paddy/Betfair Betfred, willhill, livescore

Been interested in this one the last two runs and the step back up to 1m here may be the catalyst and excuse needed to allow the return to form.

In the writeup for this one last time out I said "Crucified the field in a low grade handicap back in June by 12 lengths on last race for archie watson. Off 7 months after being sold for 18k and given an easy ride round here in a race with an Avg OR of 80 for return to the track after a 12lb bump in rating. Drops back into a slightly easier race here, but sticks with the 7f at Wolvs. Could be that they want a few more lbs off before going again with this one, I'd expect a switch to Lingfield when they are ready, but something about the way it was ridden last time makes me think that there is a run in this one"

Todays race similar grade to last race, slightly more galloping track may help, the step back up to a mile may help, the fact that this race has a decent pot for the grade will help too .. The stable certainly like to gamble, we should know 30 mins before the race starts if we are running "handbrakes off" as the price will be much shorter than it is now if the horse is expected to run its best.

Fingers crossed we are ahead of the game with this one, but i wont be giving up on it just yet. There is some talent in there, its just got to be allowed to be put back on show.