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The CLARITY Act is now in its do or die phase. If it doesn’t pass the Senate before the August 7 recess, the chances of it becoming law drop to almost zero. The Senate returns July 13. That leaves roughly 20 working days to get this done. Here’s where things stand. • No floor vote has been scheduled. No cloture motion has been filed. Senate Majority Leader John Thune hasn’t allocated floor time yet. • The full compromise text is expected to be released soon. Senator Lummis promised it would come out during the July recess, but it still hasn’t appeared. The main thing blocking it is an ethics dispute. Democrats want language preventing the President, members of Congress, and federal officials from personally profiting from crypto while in office. This became a bigger issue after Trump’s financial disclosure showed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto income for 2025 from memecoin royalties, World Liberty Financial token sales, and other streams. The White House says it accepts rules that apply to everyone but rejects anything targeting one specific officeholder. Republican Senator Thom Tillis said in April he’d vote against the bill without ethics language. There are two other fights holding it up. • Section 604 protects software developers from being treated as money transmitters. Law enforcement groups say it would hurt criminal investigations. • Whether crypto exchanges can pay yield on stablecoin balances. Coinbase alone earns about $1.35 billion a year from USDC rewards, so this one has real money attached to it. Now let’s see the votes. Republicans hold 53 seats. Two of them, Hawley and Paul, are expected to vote no. They need 60 votes to break a filibuster, so they need at least 7 Democrats. Right now, only 2 have publicly backed it. If this passes, digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum get permanently classified as commodities under CFTC oversight, and the SEC loses the ability to reclassify them. That’s the framework institutions have been waiting on before deploying serious capital. But if it fails, the crypto market will operate without any clear rules, which will hinder its adoption.