Kimi K3 is short compute. Demand is so high , they can’t take new subs.
Wasn’t Kimi K3 the Deepseek moment that was going to kill the AI infrastructure trade?
Long live compute, interconnects, memory and DC energy.
July 22nd $GOOGL will reiterate capex and if I were to wager a bet forward capex guidance will be higher and this will likely follow through with all hyperscalers .
Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that was also token efficient unlike Kimi K3 which is 50-70% more expensive to run than GPT 5.6 per Artificial Analysis.
Rationale:
A world where there are only 2-3 dominant frontier labs with 90% inference margins is net negative for every other layer while being awesome for those 2-3 labs. Those labs would become monopsonies for power, data centers, semiconductors and hyperscalers and would obviously vertically integrate over time into all those layers while also completely subsuming the application/software layers.
Anything that lowers margins and increases competition at the model layer is good for every other AI layer: power, semiconductors, hyperscalers, neoclouds and yes even software.
This is why Jensen is so supportive of open-source. An open-source model requires the *exact* same amount of compute to run as a closed frontier model of similar size and architecture. Kimi K3 is roughly the same price as GPT 5.6 Terra on a per token basis, which actually suggests that it is less computationally efficient as I am sure that GPT 5.6 is priced to a higher margin than K3. And given that K3 is a token wastrel, i.e. token inefficient, it is significantly more expensive per task than GPT 5.6 and Grok 4.5, which are much more token efficient. Cost per token and token efficiency (i.e. intelligence density per token) are the drivers of intelligence per unit of cost. The winning AI companies will be those that offer the most intelligence per $ over time.
Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at every part of the infrastructure layer and is a godsend for software. This can happen either through open-source models like K3 at the frontier *or* having a vertically integrated model company like Meta, SpaceX or Google at the frontier. Both outcomes result in a lower margin % at the model layer as vertically integrated model companies don’t really care where the margin $ come from. This is why it was so painful for OpenAI and Anthropic when Google was right there with them from a model competitiveness perspective and why Grok 4.5 and Muse 1.1 were just as important as Kimi K3.
The reason Kimi K3 is only *potentially* negative for Anthropic and OpenAI is 1) the @ericvishria point that the Claude and ChatGPT products and harnesses may be more important than their models today and 2) the hypothesis that they have much more advanced model checkpoints internally that are already being used for RSI. In the latter scenario, reaching RSI even a few months ahead of other labs might be enough to cement a permanent lead.
Time will tell on both points. And likely fairly quickly.
Caveat would be that since Kimi K3 is not token efficient and thereby actually more expensive than ChatGPT 5.6, we may need to see a more token efficient open-source model at the frontier or see Grok 5/Composer 4/Muse 2 at multiple points on the Pareto frontier for this potential risk to Anthropic and OpenAI to play out. And I am sure they will both vertically integrate as quickly as possible while continuing the product/harness strength they have shown over the last 8 months.
Barbell strategy for killing it in an age of superhuman AI:
Simultaneously get as close to AND stay as far away from AI as humanly possible.
1. Get close — play with AI models, use them to help you think, ask them to teach you about the world, get them to help you create, work with them to write code, understand what makes them tick, embed them into your everyday life, have fun.
2. Stay far away — learn to tell stories, make eye contact, build a team, lead with courage, connect far-flung ideas, build lifelong friendships, debate persuasively, think forbidden thoughts, handwrite ideas, confess your fears, fall in love.
Spend less time trying to master mental transformations that are purely mechanical — building spreadsheets, analyzing trades, balancing accounts, writing code by hand, following playbooks, searching for needles in haystacks. These are the emerging no-man's land, squarely the domain of AI.
Venture to the extremes. That’s where all the fun is anyway.
Power shows itself fastest in how it treats the powerless.
If your perimeter leaves a little girl in tears, the threat assessment failed.
A family at a hotel is not an emergency. @ChappellRoan
Brazilian footballer Jorginho says Chappell Roan’s security guard spoke to his wife and daughter in an “extremely aggressive manner” while they were staying at the same hotel as the singer.
He said his daughter recognized Chappell and “simply walked past the singer’s table” to confirm it was her, prompting the security guard to approach their table and tell his wife she shouldn’t allow her daughter to “disrespect” or “harass” other people. He added that the guard said he would file a complaint with the hotel.
Cuban is right and most CEOs are still pretending they need a committee to figure out AI.
Open a browser and start typing. Your competitors already did. @mcuban
I’m going to tell you how much worse it was at the start of the PC Revolution for white collar workers trying to adapt, vs today with AI
Today, presumably every white collar worker has access to a smart phone and/or a PC/laptop.
Back then, a PC cost $4,995 , an off brand was $3,995. 5k in 1984 is about $16k today. It was really expensive.
The only reason I could learn how to code and support software is because my job let me take home a PC to learn. By reading the software manual. Literally. RTFM. Or pay to go to training. Classes that started at hundreds of dollars then. It was expensive. It absolutely limited who could get ahead.
Today, ANYONE can go to their browser, to the AI LLM website of their choice, and type in the words “I’m a novice with zero computer background, teach me how to create an agent that reads my email and …”
That concept applies to LEARNING ANYTHING
Think about what this means. Any employee of any company can say “ I need to learn how to xyz for my job , which is to do the following: Tell me what more information do you need to help me be more efficient, productive and promotable”. Or “ what new skills can you teach me that will help me reduce my chances of getting laid off “. Or “what suggestions do you have for me to communicate to my boss, who I barely know, to help my chances of staying employed “
These aren’t great prompts. But they are a start that anyone can take.
Think about how incredible that is.
Back in the day was so much harder for white collar workers. It was harder for new grads because unless they took comp sci, they probably had never used a PC.
Big Companies are going to cut jobs. No question about it. Small companies is are going to need more and more AI literate thinkers who can help them compete or get an edge
What I tell every entrepreneur, and it’s more crucial today. “ when you run with the elephants there are the quick and the dead. Adopt tech quickly , you can out maneuver big companies. “
AI is now squeezing cow bones for profit.
If you don't think it's coming for your industry next you're the bone.
Imagine what it finds when you point it at government spending. @Polymarket
JUST IN: Beef processing giant Cargill is reportedly using AI to extract millions of dollars worth of "extra meat off the bone" in its slaughterhouses.
@ClownWorld "I'm not comfortable."
You're a BANK.
Your comfort is irrelevant.
Give the man his money or explain to regulators why you didn't.
Name the branch.
Name the manager. @HuntingtonBank@ClownWorld
Investors who buy celebrity meme coins then act shocked are why grifters keep eating.
Go after the deal guys hiding behind shells and hype or admit you gambled. @WatcherGuru