Long-Term "Negative Impacts" on housing: 1) Government debt levels 2) Dedining fertility rate (fewer children), 3) Long-term inflation outlook 4) Declining marriage rate 5) Energy costs 6) Evolving income and wealth distribution. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
Multifamily construction apartment construction leveling off near pre-covid levels. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026 My take: interest rates impacting financing, higher "cap rates", and zoning obstacles.
Townhouse construction gains c ontinue. Market share at multidecade high, 19% of new starts. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026 My take: more affordable and require less land.
Single-Familv Starts still down ~40% from 2006, Home building faces upside and downside risks in 2026. 1-5% growth next two years. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
Lower than commonly reported. NAHB Estimates 1.2 Million Housing Deficit. This deficit is narrowing and will close by 2030 @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
Remodeling Gaining Market Share for Residential Construction Improvement spending share increased from 33% in 2007 to 45% in 3Q2025 @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
Here’s a wild stat: New home pricing is currently lower than existing home pricing. This "inversion" is unusual. Builders are working hard to do their part and move inventory. New ome prices down nearly 15% since Fall 2022. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
Two rate cuts in 2026. First in June. Rates ~6%. Fannie & Freddie adding mortgage-backed securities. The result? Mortgage rates likely dropping 10-15 basis points lower. Policy is moving the needle. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026 My take, buy now, re-fi later. Consider ARM.
CPI is running at 2.4% year-over-year. Trending in the right direction, the path to 2% is visible — but not guaranteed. Shelter inflation is coming down, but outpacing other categories. More housing will help. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
2025 labor data revised, Initial estimates were overshot by a mile. 1 million jobs smaller than we thought.
In fact, 2025 saw only 180k jobs created the entire year. That is the weakest year of job creation (outside of a recession) since 2003. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
The economy should be growing at 3% given the level of #AI tech investment we're seeing. Instead it's underperforming at 2.2%. Something is holding it back — and that something is UNCERTAINTY. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
In 2025 GDP grew at roughly 2.2%. On the surface, that's decent. But there’s a massive catch: the "AI Carry." Without tech and data center investment, the economy likely only grew at 1%. @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
The current economic vibe? "Good, but not great." We’re seeing a soft labor market and a cloud of uncertainty keeping home buyers and businesses on the sidelines." @dietz_econ@NAHBhome#nabh2026
Ranking of Every #NFL Team From First to Last. New #1. Without looking any guesses on #1 and #32? See midseason grades for every team here: https://t.co/l5rOLjuvJS
After four years of German in high school, I finally got to speak German (sprich deutsch) on a business call! It was limited use and I had to dig deep for some words, but helped built rapport. I should have taken Spanish or French though in HS.😂
Contact your Republican rep to vote NO on $3.3 to $4T increase in national debt. The country is headed towards a terrible debt-to-income ratio. Goto: https://t.co/WxfEq7JIew Once we're gone, we'll be leaving those under 18 year old each with an additional $44K in debt.