Eternis

Building frontier systems for forecasting.

[Eternis @EternisAI]

1/ Introducing Eternis
In Asimov's Foundation Series, a mathematician discovers you can predict the fate of civilizations by finding the emergent laws that govern them. For decades, that was pure science fiction.

[Eternis @EternisAI]

New insights on using model internals for much more reliable forecasting will soon be live on Axion, our multi-agent system for reasoning through high-stakes forecasts and decision-making.

Exciting results from our partnership with @GoodfireAI!

[Goodfire @GoodfireAI]

Can LLMs predict the next World Cup champion?

Goodfire partnered with @EternisAI to improve how LLM forecasters use available evidence and manage uncertainty.

We found models were overconfident in their predictions – but probes significantly improved calibration. (1/6)

[Pratyush Ranjan Tiwari @PratyushRT]

Language models as forecasters can be accurate while being badly calibrated and overconfident. Their chain-of-thought can also omit the evidence that actually changed a forecast.

In this new work, we find that internal activations give us a much more reliable signal! 1/6

[Goodfire @GoodfireAI]

Can LLMs predict the next World Cup champion?

Goodfire partnered with @EternisAI to improve how LLM forecasters use available evidence and manage uncertainty.

We found models were overconfident in their predictions – but probes significantly improved calibration. (1/6)

[amit @amitisinvesting]

the greatest experiment in human history turns 250 years old 🇺🇸

deeply grateful to the opportunities this country has given me and for the people that have fought to maintain its freedom

[Eternis @EternisAI]

@goodalexander @Fiskantes

[Eternis @EternisAI]

@enthusednotebk Yes it's an adjusted brier score where more = better. More details in blog post + coming posts!

[Eternis @EternisAI]

1/ Forecasting models
We trained an 8B-parameter model that surpasses all published baselines on open-ended forecasting, including models 10–15x larger.
Post-training a small model to reason about uncertainty the way a good forecaster does turns out to give a significant portion of the gains!

[Eternis @EternisAI]

7/ With these results, we’re now scaling up post-training to match the best reasoning models on general-purpose forecasting at a fraction of the cost.

We are also creating internal evaluations for what makes a "good forecaster". This will be critical in a world where models reinforce beliefs and what humans and agents alike coordinate over is heavily influenced by these

The goal: cheap, continually learning world models that maintain forecasts across every human-relevant question.
If this is exciting, reach out to us!

Full post: https://t.co/Z9SCcLPhJq

[Eternis @EternisAI]

6/ At 40% of training, EF-8B already matches or exceeds every published baseline on the OpenForesight benchmark in both accuracy and Brier score.

[Eternis @EternisAI]

6/
- Will liquid biopsy detect 10+ cancers at 90% sensitivity by 2030?
- When does weakly general AI arrive?
- What happens to scientific output if global compute increases 10x?

If questions like these fascinate you and you want to build the systems that answer them, reach out:
[email protected].
Learn more about us:
https://t.co/WqRjT6n8hd

[Eternis @EternisAI]

1/ Introducing Eternis
In Asimov's Foundation Series, a mathematician discovers you can predict the fate of civilizations by finding the emergent laws that govern them. For decades, that was pure science fiction.

[Eternis @EternisAI]

5/ What Eternis is building
- Forecasting system built on cheap, continually learning and updating world models
- Axion, a decision product grounded in structured evidence: https://t.co/XRYMN7dpBY
- Lume, a prediction market designed for autonomous agents
- Research into multi-agent coordination and the emergent properties that arise at scale