@AidanSimardone@CKMapss not in the dallol direction; considering ENDF maintained a presence until yesterday. the erebti Forward Edge of the Battle Area is a bit skewed southwards
The North western flank seems protected for TPLF-TDF as ๐๐จ๐ถ๐จ๐ถ๐ฎ๐ฐ consolidates Dallol (funny how they are the one reliable friend TPLF has).
No sign of Eritrean involvement so far except Pro-gov't reports.
https://t.co/hZmWWqt6kA.
Whatever is being done by the Federal Government in Afar seems to be a calculated move towards invasion of Eritrea with an "involvement" rhetoric. the set up is spanning continents and multiple foreign propaganda forces.
Whether Korem is taken or not, ENDF is moving in an impressive phase as it did in 2021. But it seems like a classic manuever warfare without clearing the sides and flanks JUST LIKE 2021. we shall see whether it will have the same cost as last time.
https://t.co/HFz5w0Uolk
If things AFNM's way:
1. ENDF suffers casualties
2. TPLF suffer casualties
3. It gains some territories in Lasta Possibly cut off the Gashena intersection (if #1. is to happen)
There are a few possibilities in the coming few days
IF things go ENDF's way:
1. they reach the Ambalage plains from the south
2. The sekota front will move east (doubtful it will ever connect with the raya front)
3. AFNM will let it be in Lalibela, muja and tekulesh (1/n)
If things go TPLF's way:
1. The southern front stalls at gra kaso and ENDF suffers serious loss
2. Tembien mountains help the advances from abergele (No indication TPLF is capable of stopping a conventional armyso far)
3. AFNM comes to the rescue (2/n)
Abergele has been retaken by the ENDF but the capture of Samre is ridiculous. No one can simply cruise through tembien in such short time.
https://t.co/hZmWWqt6kA.
Tigrayan/TDF colonels and major-ranked officers are deep in Wollo, by the way. My cousin in Fano told me that they will coordinate and bridge communication between TDF generals and Fano leadership, and will work with Fano forces during rear operations as a major battle in Raya-Lasta unfolds.
๐จ Large contingent of Ethiopian National Defense Forces are in Samre, approximately 56 miles southwest of regional capital, Mekelle. Theyโre currently awaiting their next orders.
The fact that Al-Jazeera is given full access to conflict areas in Northern Afar when even state-medias aren't allowed says something. Abiy Ahmed might actually go for it.
Whatever is being done by the Federal Government in Afar seems to be a calculated move towards invasion of Eritrea with an "involvement" rhetoric. the set up is spanning continents and multiple foreign propaganda forces.
all this talk of "Alliance" and we somehow forgot to ask about "coordination"๐ฌ
AFNM-MC is doing operations in Meket and Delanta while the situations is not looking good for TPLF-TDF.