Evan Carter 🏈🚀

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[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

⭐️ The Official Carter Ratings Week 4 Top 25 ⭐️

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The Full Week 6 Saturday Betting Card is in. 🏈📈

Noon. Afternoon. Night. Another great slate full of college football and plenty of spots where the Carter Ratings are showing advantages over the current market. Three slates. One model. Same process. 🫡

Noon Games:
- Nebraska ML | Nebraska +8.5
- Texas A&M ML | Texas A&M +3.5
- UCF ML | UCF +10.5
- Pittsburgh ML | Pittsburgh -3.5
- West Virginia ML | West Virginia +3 .5
- NC State ML | NC State +3.5
- Florida ML | Florida -10.5

Mid-Day:
- Oklahoma ML | Texas -7.5
- Notre Dame ML | Notre Dame -39.5
- Ole Miss ML | Ole Miss -9.5
- Oregon ML | Oregon -10.5
- Kansas State ML | Kansas State -2.5
- Georgia Tech ML | Georgia Tech +6
- Virginia Tech ML | Virginia Tech -10
- Michigan State ML | Michigan State +2.5
- Ohio State ML | Ohio State -33.5
- Tennessee ML | Tennessee -13.5

Night Games:
- LSU ML | LSU -8.5
- Georgia ML | Georgia +2.5
- Penn State ML | USC +2.5
- Virginia ML | Virginia -11.5
- Minnesota ML | Minnesota -2.5
- Utah ML | Utah -15.5

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
👑 No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 10/10.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The Friday Night Betting Card is in. 🏈📈

Three games. Six plays. One model. Backing Louisville and BYU to take care of business, while looking for Iowa to pull off the upset against Washington. 👀

- Louisville ML and (-4) ✅
- Iowa ML and (+3) ✅
- BYU ML and (-11.5) ✅

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
👑 No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 10/9.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The Full Week 5 Saturday Betting Card is in. 🏈📈

Noon. Afternoon. Night. Another great slate full of college football and plenty of spots where the Carter Ratings are showing advantages over the market. Three slates. One model. Same process.

Noon Games:
- Notre Dame ML | Notre Dame -21
- Alabama ML | Alabama -5.5
- Minnesota ML | Minnesota +6.5
- UCF ML | UCF +10.5
- West Virginia ML | West Virginia +3
- Wake Forest ML | Wake Forest -14.5
- Michigan State ML | Michigan State +8.5
- Georgia ML | Georgia -24.5

Mid-Day:
- Iowa ML | Ohio Sate -14.5
- Tennessee ML | Tennessee -6.5
- Louisville ML | Louisville -3
- Missouri ML | Florida -5.5
- Virginia ML | Virginia -1.5
- Nebraska ML | Nebraska -14.5
- South Carolina ML | South Carolina -2.5
- Purdue ML | Purdue +10

Night Games:
- TCU ML | BYU -6
- Texas A&M ML | Texas A&M -14.5
- Miami ML | Miami -15.5
- Texas Tech ML | Texas Tech -13.5
- USC ML | USC -7.5
- Rutgers ML | Indiana -24.5
- Baylor ML | Baylor +4
- Cincinnati ML | Cincinnati +7

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 10/3.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The Friday Night Betting Card is in. 🏈📈

Two games. Four plays. One model. The Carter Ratings are backing the favorites tonight with Virginia Tech and Penn State, both outright and against the spread to kick off Week 5.

- Virginia Tech ML and (-1.5) ✅
- Penn State ML and (-2.5) ✅

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 10/2.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The full Week 4 Saturday Betting Card is in. 🏈📈

Noon. Afternoon. Night. A full day of college football and plenty of spots where the Carter Ratings are showing differences from the market. Three slates. One model. Same process.

Noon Games
- Texas ML | Texas -5.5
- Ohio State ML | Ohio State -26.5
- Louisville ML | Louisville -11.5
- Colorado ML | Colorado +9.5
- Virginia Tech ML | Virginia Tech -14.5
- Maryland ML | Maryland +1.5
- Notre Dame ML | Notre Dame -27.5

Mid-Day
- Georgia ML | Georgia -13.5
- Ole Miss ML | Ole Miss +3.5
- Iowa State ML | Utah -7.5
- Michigan ML | Michigan -5.5
- UCF ML | UCF +3
- Vanderbilt ML | Auburn -10
- Penn State ML | Penn State -10
- Michigan State ML | Michigan State +5.5

Night Games
- Alabama ML | Alabama -12.5
- Cincinnati ML | Cincinnati +6
- Oklahoma State ML | Oklahoma State +1.5
- LSU ML | LSU -8.5
- Oregon ML | Oregon -3.5
- Missouri ML | Missouri +5.5
- Stanford ML | Stanford +3
- Minnesota ML | Minnesota +10.5

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 9/26.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The Friday Night Betting Card is in. 🏈📈

Four plays across two games to kick off Week 4:

- Indiana ML and (-20.5) ✅
- California ML and (+2.5) ✅

Following a disappointing .500 record last week, we will look to follow the process and bounce back in Week 4. Tonight, The Carter Ratings are laying the points with Indiana in Game 1, while backing California as the underdog both outright and against the spread in Game 2.

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 9/25.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

5. Washington (-10) vs. Minnesota (+10) — Sept. 26

One of the largest disagreements between the market and the Carter Ratings this week comes in Washington vs. Minnesota. The market has Washington favored by 10 points, but the model sees this game as nearly a toss-up.

The Carter Ratings give Minnesota a 48.07% chance to win, compared to a 24.39% implied probability at the current +310 moneyline. That's a difference of roughly 23.68 percentage points. The spread discrepancy is even larger. At Minnesota +10 (-108), the market requires a 51.92% break-even rate, while the Carter Ratings give Minnesota a 76.33% probability of covering, a difference of roughly 24.41 percentage points.

This isn't simply a case where the model thinks 10 points is slightly too many. The Carter Ratings have just 3.86 percentage points separating these teams in outright win probability, despite Washington being a double-digit favorite.

The market has Washington favored by 10. The Carter Ratings see something much closer to a coin flip. 📊👀

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

4. Mississippi State (-6.5) vs. Missouri (+6.5) — Sept. 26

The final matchup on the Week 4 watchlist gives us another significant disagreement over how these teams are priced. Mississippi State is favored by 6.5 points, but the Carter Ratings essentially have this game as a coin flip.

The Carter Ratings give Missouri a 50.25% chance to win, compared to a 33.90% implied probability at the current +195 moneyline. That's a difference of roughly 16.35 percentage points. At Missouri +6.5 (-112), the market requires a 52.83% break-even rate, while the Carter Ratings give Missouri a 61.44% probability of covering, a difference of roughly 8.61 percentage points.

The spread gives Missouri nearly a touchdown of protection in a matchup the model views as essentially even. The Carter Ratings actually give Missouri a slight outright edge despite Mississippi State being favored by nearly a touchdown.

Mississippi State is laying 6.5. The Carter Ratings have Missouri slightly more likely to win outright. 📊👀

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

3. UCF (+3) vs. TCU (-3) — Sept. 26

Another major market disagreement comes in UCF vs. TCU. The market has TCU favored by a field goal, but the Carter Ratings have UCF as the significantly more likely team to win outright.

The Carter Ratings give UCF a 65.29% chance to win, compared to a 43.48% implied probability at the current +130 moneyline. That's a difference of roughly 21.81 percentage points. Against the spread, UCF +3 (-110) requires a 52.38% break-even rate, while the Carter Ratings give UCF a 73.12% probability of covering, a difference of roughly 20.74 percentage points.

The full field goal provides some protection, but the bigger story is the outright projection. The Carter Ratings aren't simply expecting UCF to keep this close — the model has UCF winning the game outright nearly two-thirds of the time.

TCU is favored by 3. The Carter Ratings have UCF winning outright. 📊👀

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

2. Florida (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss (+3.5) — Sept. 26

Another matchup where the Carter Ratings disagree with the market favorite comes in Florida vs. Ole Miss. Florida is laying 3.5 points, but the model gives Ole Miss the slight advantage to win the game outright.

The Carter Ratings give Ole Miss a 54.33% chance to win, compared to a 43.48% implied probability at the current +130 moneyline. That's a difference of roughly 10.85 percentage points. Against the spread, Ole Miss +3.5 (-120) requires a 54.55% break-even rate, while the Carter Ratings give Ole Miss a 60.56% probability of covering, a difference of roughly 6.01 percentage points.

The discrepancies aren't as large as some of the other games on this week's watchlist, but the important part is the direction of the projection. Florida is favored by more than a field goal, yet the Carter Ratings have Ole Miss as the more likely outright winner.

Florida is laying 3.5. The Carter Ratings have Ole Miss winning outright. 📊👀

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

1. Maryland (+1.5) vs. UCLA (-1.5) — Sept. 26

One of the strongest underdog projections on the Week 4 board comes in Maryland vs. UCLA. UCLA enters as a slight favorite, but the Carter Ratings see considerably more separation between these teams — in Maryland's direction.

The Carter Ratings give Maryland a 67.60% chance to win, compared to a 50.00% implied probability at the current +100 moneyline. That's a difference of roughly 17.60 percentage points. At Maryland +1.5 (-110), the market requires a 52.38% break-even rate, while the Carter Ratings give Maryland a 73.33% probability of covering, a difference of roughly 20.95 percentage points.

With such a short spread, the bigger story is which team the model expects to win. The market has UCLA as the favorite, while the Carter Ratings give Maryland better than a two-thirds chance of winning outright.

The market sees UCLA as the slight favorite. The Carter Ratings see Maryland as the more likely winner. 📊👀

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

WEEK 4 MODEL WATCHLIST 🏈📈

Week 4 of the College Football season kicks off tomorrow night.

Before the official betting card drops, here are five matchups where the Carter Ratings are showing some of the most interesting differences from the current market. 👀

1. Maryland (+1.5) vs. UCLA (-1.5)

2. Florida (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss (+3.5)

3. UCF (+3) vs. TCU (-3)

4. Mississippi State (-6.5) vs. Missouri (+6.5)

5. Washington (-10) vs. Minnesota (+10)

Full Carter Ratings breakdowns on all five matchups will be coming later tonight — including win probabilities, model vs. market discrepancies, and where the value for this weekend may be. 💰

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

⭐️ The Official Carter Ratings Week 3 Top 25 ⭐️

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The full Week 3 Saturday Betting Card is locked in. 🏈📊

34 plays across 17 games today. The Carter Ratings has found value across the board — favorites, a few underdogs, and a few spots where the model sees the market's pricing very differently. Please note, these picks are intended to find value in the market, and not necessarily to always select the correct team to win, although that is still a primary goal.

An example is USC -21.5, but Rutgers ML. The Carter Ratings projects the Trojans to cover and win handedly, however there is some value to be found with Rutgers ML as a single wager due to the market overpricing USC moneyline. The same can be said for games such as Notre Dame vs. Michigan State and UCLA vs. Purdue. Please just keep in mind if a favorite is projected to cover, like USC, that is the team the Carter Ratings projects to win, despite selecting Rutgers ML, although that pick may have better value. 💰

Noon Games
- Georgia ML | Georgia -24.5
- Arizona State ML | Arizona State -5.5
- Clemson ML | Clemson -3
- Vanderbilt ML | Vanderbilt -3

3:30 PM ET
- Florida State ML | Alabama -19.5
- Texas A&M ML | Texas A&M -16.5
- Louisville ML | Louisville -1.5
- Rutgers ML | USC -21.5
- Duke ML | Duke -10
- South Carolina ML | South Carolina -4

Night Games
- Florida ML | Florida -12.5
- Ole Miss ML | Ole Miss +3
- Colorado ML | Colorado +3.5
- Virginia ML | Virginia -10.5
- Maryland ML | Maryland +3
- Michigan State ML | Notre Dame -29.5
- Purdue ML | UCLA -14

📊 Data Driven. Model Backed.
👑 No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via DraftKings as of 9/19. Lines subject to change.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The Thursday & Friday Night Betting Card is in. 🏈

Six plays across three games to kick off Week 3:

- Syracuse ML and (+10.5) ✅
- Miami ML and (-21) ✅
- Texas Tech ML and (-7.5) ✅

The Carter Ratings are backing the Orange in Game 1 and laying the points with Miami and Texas Tech in Friday night's game.

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 9/17.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

@italysmma Will be previewing some games, and will have a Thursday - Friday Night Card out by 6pm eastern tonight. Saturday Games will be posted sometime Friday Night or Saturday Morning.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

The full Week 2 Saturday Betting Card is locked in. 🏈📊

17 plays across 13 games today. The Carter Ratings found value across the board — favorites, underdogs, and a few spots where the model sees the market very differently.

12 PM ET
- Michigan ML | Michigan +5.5
- Texas A&M ML | Texas A&M -14.5
- Oregon ML | Oregon -23.5
- Purdue ML | Purdue +3

3:30 PM ET
Minnesota ML | Minnesota +1.5
UCF ML | UCF +7
BYU ML | BYU -7
California ML | California +3.5
Duke ML | Duke +6

Night Games
- Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee -12.5
- Texas ML | Texas -1.5
- Iowa ML | Iowa -14
- Arkansas ML | Arkansas +12.5

Plenty of football left. Same model. Same process. Back to work.

📊 Data Driven. Model Backed.
👑 No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via DraftKings as of 9/12. Lines subject to change.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

⭐️ The Official Carter Ratings Week 2 Top 25 ⭐️

[Evan Carter 🏈🚀 @EvanCarterCFB]

Friday Night Betting Card is locked in. 🏈

Four plays across two games to kick off Week 2:

- Rutgers ML and (+3.5) ✅
- Missouri ML and (-4.5) ✅

The Carter Ratings are backing the underdog in Game 1 and laying the points with Missouri in Game 2.

📊 Data driven.
📈 Finding value in the market.
No Locks. Just Edge.

*Odds via @DKSports as of 9/11.

*For entertainment purposes only. Not gambling advice. Please gamble responsibly. 21+.