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[Eventual @EventualNews]

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[Eventual @EventualNews]

Watch today's Morning Meeting, in which @MarkHalperin and the @2waytvapp dive into @Polymarket with us.

[Mark Halperin @MarkHalperin]

On today’s episode of “The Morning Meeting,” @LarryOConnor, @KevinPWalling, and I broke down the latest from Ohio to Texas, the threat of AI-powered hacking, Kamala Harris giving ’28 vibes on the ’26 trail, and the developments shaping the final stretch of the midterms.

Then, @keendawg, founder of @EventualNews, joined us for a special 2WAY x @Polymarket conversation on prediction markets, how they work, the odds worth watching, and what they can tell us about the races ahead.

Powered by @2WAYTVAPP x @Polymarket

Watch now:

https://t.co/RK7NTVMjXw

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@TaniaRios_J @irbezek @gnribeiro Gotta be. Thanks for the idea

[Eventual @EventualNews]

🚨 8-BAGGER UNLOCKED 🚨

Who followed @irbezek and @gnribeiro on Lula?

[Eventual @EventualNews]

We have a DISAGREEMENT.

Prediction markets and Brazil experts are not aligned.

Experts like Lula. Markets like Bolsonaro.

@irbezek: It’s “at least 50-50. And I would say personally that Lula is favored.”

@gnribeiro: Bolsonaro “has massive fragilities around his image,” including corruption scandals.

Who's wrong?

[StuPredicts 🔜 NEXTPredict 🗽 @StuPredicts]

Brazil's election has become a personality test for prediction markets.

If you're a believer, you're sharing the chart where @Polymarket and @Kalshi swung towards Lula as the votes came in.

If you're a sceptic, you're sharing the chart where Flávio Bolsonaro was an 80%+ favourite before losing.

Both charts are real. Both are being asked to do rather too much work.

Lula won 51.79% to 48.21%.

And now there are two camps: "the markets saw it coming" or "the markets are nonsense".

I've spent much of this morning reading the reactions.

Interestingly, some people were challenging the market's confidence well before the result.

On 4 October, @EventualNews spoke to Brazil specialist @irbezek, who believed Lula had at least a 50/50 chance of winning, despite traders giving him much lower odds.

On Reddit, u/Striking_Ad6727 said they'd put $1,000 on Lula when his chances were priced at 34%. They refused to sell even when those odds dropped to 16%.

They've since reported making a profit. If they'd held until settlement, that $1,000 would have returned approximately $2,940, including their original stake.

And on 23 October, u/DawnofSouth highlighted two large Polymarket positions backing @LulaOficial, while @FlavioBolsonaro remained the overwhelming favourite.

So why were the markets so confident about Bolsonaro? And what changed when the votes started coming in?

1/4

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@MacroJason @irbezek @gnribeiro They’re both rare talents!

[Eventual @EventualNews]

We have a DISAGREEMENT.

Prediction markets and Brazil experts are not aligned.

Experts like Lula. Markets like Bolsonaro.

@irbezek: It’s “at least 50-50. And I would say personally that Lula is favored.”

@gnribeiro: Bolsonaro “has massive fragilities around his image,” including corruption scandals.

Who's wrong?

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

BREAKING: Bolsonaro surges to record-high in Brazil's presidential odds, seeking to shift the country closer to the U.S. & away from China.

62% chance.

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@hellohalofixer @irbezek @gnribeiro

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@squeezerabban @keendawg @irbezek @gnribeiro Well done

[Eventual @EventualNews]

Very excited to tell you guys —>

[Mark Halperin @MarkHalperin]

How are the prediction markets reading the 2026 midterms? Which races are worth watching, and what are traders seeing that others might be missing?

Join us LIVE Monday, October 26 at 10am ET as @2WAYTVAPP x @Polymarket bring you a special midterm conversation with @keendawg founder @eventualnews, @LarryOConnor, @KevinPWalling, and me.

Stay after “The Morning Meeting” to learn how the markets work, ask your questions LIVE, and get in on the conversation.

[Alex Keeney (fka Keendawg 🐶🇺🇸) @keendawg]

Weak hands folding on Dems?

Or early vote foretelling trouble?

[Eventual @EventualNews]

TEXAS EARLY VOTE

@Domahhhh: Is Elon Musk's money delivering any GOP votes?

Because things look iffy.

@gwfulce: "10-25% of the Republican runoff electorate -- which ends up being about 2-3% of the actual general election electorate -- are really, really pissed off at Paxton and Republicans writ large."

[Eventual @EventualNews]

🚨 please DM 🚨

[Alex Keeney (fka Keendawg 🐶🇺🇸) @keendawg]

Same offer. Are you betting on:

Paxton
Rogers
Marshall

Please come on our show

[Eventual @EventualNews]

So
Much
Early vote
slop

@TradeandMoney, @LoganR2WH, @gwfulce share their insights on how to spot the signal in this noisy space

Sign-up for our free newsletter to get their insights: https://t.co/2KvhZK8wuB

[Alex Keeney (fka Keendawg 🐶🇺🇸) @keendawg]

Looking for big Karen Bass yes holders. Want to come on @EventualNews?

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@mzphyz @LoganR2WH Thanks for the good question!

[Eventual @EventualNews]

Are Democrats winning in FLORIDA!!??

@LoganR2WH: "I don't think so. Not for the governor and Senate race"

Sorry gang, get your lottos somewhere else.

Thanks to @mzphyz for the mailbag.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Florida IP Early Voting | Day 4

I still think Democrats are frontloading.

🔴 Republicans: 333,394
🔵 Democrats: 283,005
⚪ Other/NPA: 147,196

Cumulative GOP Margin
2024: R+27.0
2026: R+6.6

Shift Toward Democrats vs. 2024
Day 1: D+24.4
Day 2: D+23.8
Day 3: D+22.4
Day 4: D+20.4

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@surferpredicts @BrandonMH1 @keendawg @Domahhhh Maybe some alpha in the margin market though

[Eventual @EventualNews]

Election twitter is dominated by 22 year old socialists and woke 40 year old prediction market traders.

@keendawg and @Domahhhh debate whether it's time to rebalance their highly-Democratic skewing portfolios.

-- Prices are moving towards Blue tsunami-level outcomes

-- Are they reflecting the view of a too online crowd...

--- Or are they accurately forecasting a GOP wiepout?

-- Is it time to take some profits --

@Domahhhh: "You constantly want to be reassessing where your bets are, what the current price is, if your price has been met and if you should move it to a better opportunity."

[Eventual @EventualNews]

52% chance of a bigger GOP wipeout than 2006.

🚩🚩🚩Blue tsunami watch in effect.

[Eventual @EventualNews]

@drakenneh @keendawg @Domahhhh Correct. Lots of those.