Rationaleist

Neoliberalism with North Eurasian characteristics || RosAtomwaffen

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@akarlin Small unit tactics with entire platoons and squads getting wiped with nobody to evacuate, grenade droppers finishing off the wounded, lackluster medevac in general. This conflict has very high k/w ratio by modern standards.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

I should invest in lead

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@SyriaObReloaded @Mykorola They still want to cut the land bridge to Crimea. There is nothing they gain by taking Bakhmut except access to even bigger urban slogs.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@Mykorola @AdriaanRonseFVD People underestimate how the lack of stop-loss order affected RU manpower retention in the first half of 22. There was an ukr interview with a talkative Russian pow in charge of paperwork and about 70% of losses he processed were people who just left after their contract ran out.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@bereIKABerezIKA What did they mean by this?

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@MahotsukaiMokou It's at least partially due to lower target discrimination. Not clear if sutainable.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@akarlin Neocameralists in control. Trust the plan.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@bereIKABerezIKA Since ‘partial mob’ isn’t a thing, they still didn’t have legal capacity to press into service. They just cast as wide a net as they could and sent whoever showed up. Now Donbass before it was formally annexed had a lot of forced conscription similar to what Ukraine is doing now.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@bereIKABerezIKA Military is the Fukuyama of Russian institutions. Total end of history mindset. Punishment if you get caught dodging conscription within a year of receiving summons during peace time (which it technically still is) was like a $20 fine until recently.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@shanggyangg

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@smo_ebooks Might as well stick a paper with "2 more weeks and Russia is going to lose due to no mobilization" and it would be about as accurate a forecast as Murz's doomposting at any given time.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@smo_ebooks He was predicting RU fighting off Ukrainian winter offensive with shovels, untrained mobiks trying to stop freshly rested UA veterans in the spring and big arrow Ukrainian offensives that RU won't be able to stop due to complete lack of reserves in the summer.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@RussiaBattleMap @Mykorola @SisssiBurnerAcc @Catbias1 32 Strykers alone are about $150m. A few NASAMS volleys square it off to $200m. That's half the package gone even without the other stuff.
500-1,000 seems correct. They fired about 9-10k during the first year and most months barely any GMLRS were used.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@RussiaBattleMap @Mykorola @SisssiBurnerAcc @Catbias1 $400M doesn't buy a whole lot of those missiles, especially considering that the package also includes AD which is even more expensive.
Lancets have been hitting wheeled guns more frequently lately. Hopefully 53 will be able to hunt long range MLRS reliably.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@akarlin @woke8yearold Logistics X with autonomous transportation should drop at some point. Great potential in tie with Starlink and Twitter as marketing hub. Maybe Tesla could branch off into cargo drones.
Can't believe we are seeing cool dystopia stuff for once instead of lame one.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@akarlin Murz is the kind of guy who predicted 14 out of 2 Russian grand retreats. He also had some really bad opinions about suicide drone viability. Man is doing God's work with the comms and let's leave it at that.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@SealOfTheEnd @akarlin Russian central bank has been very fiscally conservative since early 2000s and there was a degree of diversification after 2014 sanctions but it wasn't planning for an actual war. Only high ranking natsecgroids were in the know.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@liberalmonarch When RU started using suicide drones en masse last October I thought UA would have equivalents by May and then it would be truly over. Instead their allies just didn't bother and focused on 100x more expensive last gen precision systems. Clown world all around.

[Rationaleist @EvrazSchizo]

@liberalmonarch I guess it works in a world where "multiple countries" dedicate more than 1% of GDP to it, Shaheds never hit anything, Lancets are just a bad substitutes for GMLRS and Russian airforce doesn't even exist.