Everett Rathe

NFL Content Writer @FanSided | Analytical Game Previews on Substack

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

@UnderdogNFL

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

*me checking twitter after a flight to see how my bears are doing

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

49ers vs. Seahawks might be the best matchup of Week 5.

San Francisco's offense:

• 1st in EPA/play
• 1st in yards/play
• 1st in success rate

Seattle's defense:

• 2nd in EPA/play allowed
• 1st in yards/play allowed
• 2nd in defensive success rate

Should be fun

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

C.J. Stroud from a clean pocket this season:

• 71.2% completion
• 9.3 yards/attempt
• 113.0 passer rating

Now he faces a Titans defense ranking:

• 24th in pressure rate
• 27th in EPA/pass allowed
• 27th in passing yards allowed/play

Could be a big afternoon for Houston's passing attack.

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

The Colts' rushing offense through four weeks:

• 3rd in EPA/rush
• 20th in rushing success rate
• 20th in yards/carry

Huh?

Indianapolis has generated a ton of value from its rushing plays without consistently moving the football.

A perfect example of why EPA and success rate tell different stories.

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Sam Darnold's splits against zone vs. man coverage this season are WILD.

Against zone:
• +0.11 EPA/play
• 58.6% success rate
• 9.5 yards/attempt

Against man:
• -0.81 EPA/play
• 15.4% success rate
• 2.18 yards/attempt

The 49ers play the SECOND-MOST zone coverage in the NFL.

Something to watch on Sunday.

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

🏈 NFL Week 5 Preview & Predictions

Another loaded Sunday of NFL football!

Some of the biggest matchups:

🔥 49ers @ Seahawks — The NFL's most efficient offense meets one of its best defenses

🐻 Bears @ Packers — Can Chicago stay hot at Lambeau?

✈️ Eagles vs. Jaguars — Can a depleted Philadelphia offense keep up with Jacksonville in London?

⚔️ Raiders @ Patriots — Can Kirk Cousins exploit New England's injury-riddled secondary?

Plus plenty more!

9 games. Analytics-driven breakdowns. Matchup advantages. Score predictions.

Full preview 👇

https://t.co/EALhHTOhXS

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

The Vikings are 4-0.

Their offense ranks 25th in EPA/play and DEAD LAST in yards/play.

So how are they undefeated?

Their defense ranks:

• 1st in EPA/play allowed
• 1st in defensive success rate
• 1st in points allowed
• 1st in touchdowns allowed
• 1st in pressure rate
• 1st in blitz rate

Brian Flores. Wow.

[Cream sleeve @creamsleeve]

Wear the sweater Sunday Ben. Do it for the people. Do it for Mike.

- cream

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Kirk Cousins is tied for the NFL lead in passing TDs through four weeks.

The Raiders rank 6th in EPA per pass.

But they're 30th in EPA per rush and DEAD LAST in rushing success rate.

An offense featuring Ashton Jeanty has somehow become completely dependent on Kirk Cousins.

What a world we live in!!

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

I think USC vs. Penn State will come down to which QB handles pressure better.

Jayden Maiava under pressure:
37.8% completion rate
5.5 yards per attempt
34.0 passer rating

Rocco Becht under pressure:
37.5% completion rate
4.1 yards per attempt
46.9 passer rating

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

🏈 College Football Week 6 Preview & Predictions

Another loaded weekend of college football!

Some of the biggest matchups:

🏟️ No. 2 Georgia @ No. 6 Alabama — Two undefeated SEC powers clash in Tuscaloosa
🌽 No. 7 Indiana @ Nebraska — Battle of the unbeatens in Lincoln
🤘 No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma — Red River Rivalry
🦆 No. 21 UCLA @ No. 13 Oregon — Can the Ducks stop UCLA's dominant rushing attack?
⚔️ No. 19 USC @ Penn State — Can Jayden Maiava survive the Nittany Lions' pass rush in a White Out?

Plus plenty more!

12 games. Analytics-driven breakdowns. Matchup advantages. Score predictions.

Full preview 👇

https://t.co/wKrFt9YGoJ

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Kentucky's offense makes absolutely no sense.

8th nationally in early-down EPA/play and the 19th-shortest average third-down distance (6.11 yards).

And somehow...

7th-WORST late-down success rate in the country.

They're consistently getting manageable third downs and just... not converting them.

MAKE IT MAKE SENSE

Data via Game on Paper

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Missouri's offense might be the most one-dimensional unit in college football.

Passing:

15th in EPA/dropback
16th in success rate

Rushing:

110th in EPA/rush
118th in success rate

Austin Simmons is carrying this offense.

Data via Game on Paper

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

The Buccaneers blitz at the 3rd-highest rate in the NFL.

Their pressure rate?

28th.

And now they have to face Dak Prescott, who's averaging 8.5 YPA with 8 TDs and a 127.2 passer rating from a clean pocket.

That could be a massive problem for Tampa Bay tonight.

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Nebraska ranks 1st nationally in explosive play rate.

Indiana ranks 84th in defensive explosive play rate.

That's definitely something to watch on Saturday.

And it's one of the reasons I think Nebraska has a legitimate shot at upsetting Indiana.

Data via Game On Paper

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Thursday Night Football!

The Buccaneers are still searching for their first win, while Dak Prescott and the Cowboys look to keep the momentum going.

Can Jalon Daniels take advantage of Dallas' struggling defense?

My full preview and prediction 👇

https://t.co/0b67ZmY6Ye

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

Lee Beebe Jr. leads the team with 73 carries, averaging 5.59 YPC and +0.12 EPA/rush.

Turbo Richard is averaging 9.21 yards per carry and +0.30 EPA per rush on 52 carries.

I'm not saying I know more than Curt Cignetti.

But...

FEED TURBO.

Data via Game on Paper

[Everett Rathe @EvvRathe]

That’s called a dagger, folks