Index regime check. Major indices vs their moving averages:
S&P 500: +7.0% from 50 SMA, +9.3% from 200 SMA
NASDAQ 100: +12.2% from 50 SMA, +16.0% from 200 SMA
NASDAQ COMP: +11.3% from 50 SMA, +14.2% from 200 SMA
RUSSELL 2000: +5.2% from 50 SMA, +10.5% from 200 SMA
one year ago:
$ONDS was $0.98. today $11
$INTC was $21. today $109
$PLUG was $0.79. today $3.78
$10,000 across all three: $69,076
you weren't broke. you just weren't paying attention.
the data was there all year. most just don't have a way to filter it down to the few names.
Today's biggest winners:
$SBFM: +424.4% at $1.49
$GOVX: +180.9% at $3.46
$VRAX: +141.9% at $0.37
$CISS: +73.8% at $5.30
$AIM: +58.8% at $0.40
$25k into $SBFM yesterday & you'd be up $106,098 today. Without follow-through volume, gainers like these tend to mean-revert fast...
Iran's reported $BTC linked Hormuz shipping insurance scheme is circulating via Fars News. If real, it's a meaningful sanction-evasion development and could add geopolitical premium to BTC even as it sells off technically.
market digest:
Crypto is getting hammered alongside risk assets.
$BTC below $77K triggering ~$700M in liquidations.
$ETH down to $2,185. Tom Lee at Fundstrat flags the inverse correlation to crude (now ~$110) as the primary driver for ETH weakness.
Recent insider buying:
Frangou Angeliki bought $NMM for $83,128 on 2026-05-15
ADAR1 Capital Management bought $RLYB for $1,380 on 2026-05-15
ADAR1 Capital Management bought $RLYB for $2,790 on 2026-05-15
S&P 500 has closed 1.5+ standard deviations above its 50-DMA for 23 straight sessions. Nasdaq is up 25.9% off March lows and would need to fall 8% just to touch its 50-DMA.
Despite that, macro conditions apart from bonds remain fairly positive.
equal-weight BTC + ETH + XRP portfolio:
since Jan 2026: -20.3% return, max drawdown -42.0%, volatility 51%
since Jan 2025: -29.6% return, max drawdown -58.1%, volatility 51%
since Jan 2021: +291.1% return, max drawdown -76.9%, volatility 62%
Stocks running hot, more than 10% above their 50-day SMA right now:
$QUCY: +315.7% > 50 SMA
$AIIO: +310.0% > 50 SMA
$POET: +155.0% > 50 SMA
$SOXL: +115.0% > 50 SMA
$DXF: +109.5% > 50 SMA
Watch volume. If it tapers while price grinds higher, that's the exhaustion tell.
Today's biggest losers (healthcare heavy):
$TDIC: -95.2% at $1.11
$STAK: -59.7% at $0.95
$WOK: -50.4% at $1.37
$MDXH: -49.9% at $0.98
$TOPS: -44.0% at $0.98
Bounce window is typically 24 to 48 hours after the puke. Most don't bounce. The ones that do, bounce hard.
Lowest Altman Z-Scores in today's pool:
$WGRX: Z-Score -14.12, Piotroski 1/9
$HUBC: Z-Score -8.76, Piotroski 3/9
$EOSE: Z-Score -5.54, Piotroski 4/9
Academic standard for predicting corporate bankruptcy. When in distress, a 95% accuracy rate predicting failure within 2 years.
Yesterday's insider buying:
Webber Stephen J. bought $CSPI for $23,700
DONEGAL MUTUAL INSURANCE bought $DGICA for $144,288
Isaacman Jared bought $FOUR for $7,848,268
When executives buy with their own cash and not grants... something is cooking.
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$NOK: +148% return, -25% drawdown to get there
most retail accounts get stopped out somewhere between -25 & -35%. that's why the avg retail return lags the avg stock return.
knowing your drawdown threshold matters more than picking the right name. systems beat instincts. always
the trade looked obvious in hindsight.
$SOXL finished the year up 783%. nice.
but to capture that return, you had to sit through a -43% drawdown along the way.
others on such list told the same story:
$POET: +195% return, -56% drawdown to get there