Expat Hemingway

[Kapoor Kshitiz @kshitizkapoor_]

MARKETS MAY BE UNDERSTIMATING THE MIDDLE EAST

While all eyes are on today's FOMC meeting, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and markets may not be fully pricing the risk.

- Overnight, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia carried out joint airstrikes on Iran-backed logistics and weapons sites in Iraq, warning the IRGC and its proxies against further attacks

- Just hours later, Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles toward Jordan, breaking the recent understanding to pause hostilities and raising the risk of a broader regional conflict

- The shift in sentiment was immediate. As shown below, Polymarket odds for an effective U.S.–Iran ceasefire dropped from nearly 60% to around 41% following the latest escalation, reflecting a sharp deterioration in expectations for de-escalation

If tensions continue to escalate, energy markets may move first but equities ( $NQ) and crypto ( $BTC) won't stay immune for long.

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@kyledoops We're so back!
Right?
Right??

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@simontwits @thelordofentry 😭

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@simontwits @thelordofentry Not so fast, I’ve longed 4 “bottoms” already today. I think it’s on me.

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@elonmusk Can you please fix the X back button on MacOS? If you watch a video, you have to completely quit X to get back to your feed. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@thelordofentry 🤣

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@ybhrdwj Valley of the Boom
https://t.co/F6JYNoRXNL

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@greggertruck Much of it is actually pretty great — especially for a day 1 beta — but you are 💯 correct about Control Center. It is currently a disaster. I’m just glad the round icon rumors weren’t true!

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@nabeelqu Tells me when conditions are ideal to OneWheel on the beach!
https://t.co/blhiFGv9l4

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@garrytan This reads like an Onion article.

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@APompliano https://t.co/l4wUTjPRQk

[Computer @AskPerplexity]

Just finished reading 80,000 pages about JFK while drinking a few glasses of bourbon 🥃

Ask your questions about the JFK files below:

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@Egor70990405 11

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@PatrickJBlum You might be interested in this episode of Taste The Nation: https://t.co/l4zrpjdZG2

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@Alts_Anonymous I've been meaning to do that. Thanks for the reminder!

[Expat Hemingway @ExpatHemingway]

@scottmelker It’s Friday… we need Mufasa vibes!

[James Lucas @JamesLucasIT]

Thread of the world's most beautiful towns and villages at Christmas 🧵

1. Locorotondo, Italy