Expected Eleven

Turning football data into better fantasy decisions

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

Football is full of outcomes.

We care about decisions.

A player hauling doesn't always make it the right pick.

A blank doesn't always make it the wrong one.

Over a season, consistently making better decisions beats chasing last week's points.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

X11 Decision Desk | GW4 ⚖️

Bruno or Saka?

Our model prefers Bruno this week — 6.72 vs 6.05 xPts.

Both have the same projected upside, but Bruno has the stronger typical outcome: 6 pts vs 3.

Saka's case? Similar ceiling for £2.5m less.

#FPL #FPLCommunity #FantasyPremierLeague

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPL_JD Yeah nice. I would swap out Sangare for Elanga!

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FFH_HQ Neat! I don't know about Pedro Porro and Lacroix though!

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPLBazuu Replace Wissa with DCL or Barry.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPLModmen Mbeumo projects 6.60 points higher across the next three weeks. Both have secure starts; Mbeumo simply has much stronger goal threat and a higher ceiling.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPLinbound Pickford is only marginally behind Raya as a goalkeeper, while Ødegaard is much stronger than Dewsbury-Hall. The pair on the right gains 0.83 points in GW4 and 4.09 over GW4–6.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@Cathbjorn MGW is marginally better this week and +2.4 xP over the next three, with similar guaranteed minutes. He’s the better pick in our data.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPL_CAZM Our model thinks over GW4-6, this is going to make things worse by 2.5 xP! Definitely keep Odegaard and Isak!

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPLModmen Great points. 100% agreed.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FFScout I have my doubts over captaining Palmer, but the rest looks great!

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPLLabs Great post. Our model thinks these are the best picks over the same period:

Tyrick Mitchell
Maxim De Cuyper
Jayden Bogle
Kayode
Neco Williams

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@Utd_rona Cheers!

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@AlllChelsea10 Our data shows that over GW4-6, Mbeumo outscores MGW in 60% of simulations. Both perform the same on average, but Mbeumo has a higher upside.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@Mark_FPL That's the right move. The outcome doesn't make your decision wrong.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPL_CAZM Yes, only because Dewsbury-Hall has a 2 xP edge over Scott.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPL_Neil For GW4-6 our model predicts:

MGW over Semenyo for sure. Not even close.
Konsa over Thiaw only if he gets the minutes.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@fpl_gntl It's not just you! Our model is torn too 😅 But seriously they're more or less the same. I'd go with DEWSBURY-HALL just because of the safer minutes AND the fact that they're playing IPS at home.

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@DanielSldek4 Our model thinks Groß is a better pick and leads by 4.32 projected points over GW4-6. Both are near-certain 90-minute starters, but Groß has far higher projected attacking output and upside (p90 of 8–10 points, versus Xhaka’s 3–6).

[Expected Eleven @ExpectedEleven]

@FPLDaveHQ @OfficialFPL Brilliant analysis. Can't agree more. Palmer isn't a bad pick but not as good as Bruno. At least data doesn't suggest that.