EV Sloth🦥

Sharing an exploitable edge | +EV bets | CLV | +11% Lifetime ROI📈 Win some, lose most 🦥 All plays tracked with unit recs 🔗👇

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Been a long time coming and I am quite excited to announce I will be joining @BTBSupport full time with my own channel!

Don’t worry I’m not going anywhere, I will still be posting stuff on here but for all our boost builders with specific units tracked daily and the new laser model will all be in our discord. Essentially the discord will cover everything I am playing daily. Truly worthwhile.

Join along here 👇
https://t.co/gQOERpUOMn

Excited to grow and scale this thing up which has always been the goal. This is just the beginning 🚀

-Sloth🦥

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Let’s hit another 👇

🔗 https://t.co/YmXfa0sYuu

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Sgp today 👇

🔗 https://t.co/hHxVX35Lkx

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

CFB SGP Free play 👇
FV +648

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[Mitt's Picks @Mitts_Picks]

There was an NFL game on tonight?
Good day on the mound ⚔️

-106 ✅
+125 ✅
+182 ✅
+230 ✅
+443 ✅

All my plays ⬇️
https://t.co/Ju3D1jW1hs

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Let’s hit Fd today FREE play👇

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Sal ❤️✅💰

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Next up from the model

Some love for the #DraftKings crew

Sal Stewart:
20+ (-145)⭐️⭐️
25+ (+180)⭐️⭐️

Sal Stewart is one of the more intriguing breakout candidates in the 2026 HR prop market, Sal Stewart made his MLB Debut on Sept 1st & hit 5 HR in his first 58 PA w/ a 95.4 MPH Avg EV in a small 40 BBE Sample. Before the call, he was the only player in Minor League Baseball in 2025 w/ 20+ HR, a 150 wRC+ or higher, & a K% below 17%. He also had 10 HR in just 38 AAA G.

Stewart has not posted a season long OPS below .800 in his professional career.

2022: .851
2023:. .811
2024: .844
2025 (MiLB): .907
2025 (MLB): .839

These numbers are quite impressive, though his profile comes with an important caveat that must be addressed upfront. The 21-year-old third baseman made his MLB debut in 2025, appearing in just 18 games and accumulating 55 at-bats with the Reds while posting a .255/.293/.545 slash line with 5 home runs. His Statcast numbers from that cup of coffee are genuinely impressive — 95.4 avg exit velocity, 17.5 barrel rate, and an xSLG of .626 — but interpreting those figures at full face value over such a small sample would be a mistake. What we can say with confidence is that the underlying contact quality is real, validated by four minor league seasons that show a consistent pattern of hard contact and above-average power production culminating in a 1.023 OPS at AAA Louisville in 2025.

The raw power tools are not in question. Even after blending his MLB Statcast profile down toward his minor league baseline — adjusting barrel rate to 13% and exit velocity to 93 mph to account for small sample noise — Stewart still grades out as a legitimate middle-of-the-order power threat. His 17.9 degree average launch angle is ideal for HR production, sitting in the sweet spot of the 15-20 degree range where fly balls turn into home runs at the highest rate. His pull rate of 52.5% is among the highest in the game, and at Great American Ball Park — one of the most HR-friendly environments in baseball with a park factor of 121 — that pull-heavy approach plays exceptionally well toward the short right field porch.

Playing time is the central question mark. Stewart was not an everyday player in 2025 at the MLB level, and whether he enters 2026 as Cincinnati's locked-in third baseman or still competing for at-bats will dramatically shape his HR total. At 550 AB with his raw MLB metrics the model projects 41.6 HRs — almost certainly inflated by small sample Statcast noise. The more honest conservative projection uses deflated metrics and 480 AB, which brings the OLS projection down to a much more credible 31.4 HRs. That conservative estimate still makes for a compelling profile.

Running the conservative scenario — 14% barrel, 93 mph exit velo, and taming down his LA and Pull% with only 480 AB — the model outputs show strong agreement at the 30+ and higher thresholds with HIGH confidence indicators across the board. P(30+) sits at 32.7% logit and 35.5% OLS, P(35+) at 18.8% logit and 14% OLS, and P(40+) at 4% logit and 3.7% OLS. The 25+ row shows LOW confidence due to the structural gap (40%-63%) between logit and OLS at that threshold, but 30+ and above tell a consistent story.

With super conservative estimates, I'd frame his true probabilities as roughly 40-50% for 25+, 30-35% for 30+, 15-20% for 35+ and 5-10% for 40+. Should his sustained 2026 savant metrics show anything similar to what he flashed in 2025 OR should he get somewhere in the 520-580 range if at bats, he will blow these out of the water.

WITH ALL THIS BEING SAID, to my knowledge, his only lines currently offered are at DK:
-145 for 20 and +180 for 25

Both of these are smashes for me. (I have paired him with Roman Anthony 25+ at +210, great price and we will discuss him later)
#slothomerunmodel #gamblingx #mlb #homeruns

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Model starting to come through
✅💰

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Next up from the model

Ben Rice:
35+ (+400 mgm) ⭐️⭐️
40+ (+1000 mgm) ⭐️

Another young guy on the rise who after coming back from his hand injury surged into the middle of a power heavy Yankees lineup. He posted a 93.3 avg exit velo (95th%) 15.4 barrel (92nd%) and other barrel and hard hit metrics that are 90+% across the board. Pair this with a disciplined hitter and favorable avg launch angle of 15-17° and his higher totals become quite interesting.

It’s hard not to like rice when we add in the fact he plays at yankee stadium as a lefty and pace him for a healthy 520-550 at bats.

The logit model disagrees with the ols as it’s not accounting for at bats and assumes a full healthy season of 580-600 as this helped fit the model better.

With all this noise in mind and some recent bias of the model accounted for I like his
30+ for ~40-50%
35+ for ~25-35%
40+ for ~13-18%

This brings value on his longer odds
30+ (+145 mgm 41%)
35+ (+400 mgm 20%) ⭐️⭐️
40+ (+1000 mgm 9.1%) ⭐️

#slothomerunmodel #mlb #gamblingx #GamblingTwitter #homerun

[Zirksee🍽️ @Zirksee]

Imagine taking Tucker Kraft receiving yards and you see him playing LG

[Beat The Books @BTBSupport]

MLB MLs x Totals from @ExpectedSloth 🦥

+510✅
+865✅
$100 👉 $787 💰💰

16 MLB games today, join the team ⬇️
🔗 https://t.co/nrJMDxdgY8

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Dk sgp free play 👇
FV +737

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[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Dk sgp free play 👇
FV +737

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[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

50% free play for tn with @Evbettingplus
FV +218
#draftkings

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[Beat The Books @BTBSupport]

🚨Monday Night Football Promo Code🚨

The First 50 people to use code MNF50 will get 50% off at checkout!

Lock in with the best team in the 🌎
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[MohBets @MohBetsMohMoney]

@BTBSupport @ExpectedSloth BINK

[Beat The Books @BTBSupport]

Kenneth Walker 40/50/60 Rec Yards 🚀🚀
(@ExpectedSloth) 🦥

+428✅
+820✅
+1440✅

Great way to end the night! Monday Night Football loading ➡️ https://t.co/nrJMDxcJ8A

[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

All timer @JPWVOH 🫪

[Beat The Books @BTBSupport]

WHAT A DAY FOR @JPWVOH 👑

+128✅
+429✅
+1000✅
+1200✅
+1300✅
+1700✅
+2400✅
+2840✅
+4500✅
$2,050 👉 $27,702 💰💰

Lock in with us for MNF: https://t.co/nrJMDxcJ8A

[Jason @JPWVOH]

Jalen Royals td babyyyyy!

What a snipe!

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[Jason @JPWVOH]

Tyler Warren first td!

#FirstTouchdownKing

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[EV Sloth🦥 @ExpectedSloth]

Let’s paint SNF on DK👇

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[Beat The Books @BTBSupport]

TE Touchdowns get you paid 🫡
(@Larry32__) 🦞

+1950✅
$25 👉 $512 💰💰

Show some love if you tailed 🫶
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