๐โโ๏ธ Disciple of @TheVivekSinghal sir
๐ฏ Focus: Finance | Fitness | Family
๐ซ No noise. No tips. No trade calls.
๐ Learning attitude & positive vibes only.
Yes. I suggest always checking the latest financials and valuation (even for V-40) before taking a trade.
And prefer stocks with highest-ever quarterly results, and the PE/PB ratio below its 5-year average.
This helps build conviction based on improving business performance and attractive valuation.
In my view, combining the strategy with a quick check of financials and valuation can improve the quality of trades and help in making better position-sizing decisions.
Query: Where did @TheVivekSinghal sir go wrong in suggesting Rajesh Exports? ๐ค
My Response ๐๐
Before responding to the above query, let me first summarize some of the core lessons taught by Vivek Sir in his online classes, which are freely available on his YouTube channel ๐
๐น As retail investors, we generally have to rely on audited financial statements and balance sheets certified by CAs. ๐
๐น Even if a company clears all the parameters of a good business, frauds can still happen. Cases like Satyam have shown that not everything can be detected in advance. โ ๏ธ
๐น Retail investors are usually not capable of consistently detecting frauds early. In the stock market, unexpected things can happen to any particular business. ๐
To address these realities, Sir has always emphasized risk management:
โ Never deploy more than 3% of total capital in a single trade, irrespective of how high your conviction may be. ๐ฏ
โ Average up or take a second entry only when either the valuation becomes more attractive or the financial/business performance has improved since the first purchase. ๐
The foundation of the approach itself acknowledges that any stock can fail, even go to zero. The objective is to ensure that such an event does not derail your long-term compounding journey. ๐ฑ
As I am still relatively new to the market and my understanding of businesses is evolving, I have reduced this limit further and generally deploy only 1โ2% of capital per trade. ๐
I am comfortable tracking stocks, maintaining watchlists, monitoring quarterly results, maintaining a detailed trading ledger, and evaluating portfolio performance. Because of this, I am also comfortable managing a portfolio of 50โ60 stocks. ๐๐
I have often stated that I follow an approach where the boom ๐ or doom ๐ฅ of any single stock should neither make nor break my portfolio.
Therefore, when people ask, "Where did Vivek Sir go wrong in suggesting Rajesh Exports?" ๐คทโโ๏ธ
My mind goes in a different direction.
I wonder, "Where did investors go wrong if a single trade was capable of causing serious injury to their overall portfolio?" ๐ค
A stock going wrong is always a possibility.
In my view, a portfolio suffering serious damage because of just one or two stocks is often a position-sizing problem ๐, not merely a question of stock selection criteria.
Have learnt trading from the online classes of @TheVivekSinghal sir freely available on YouTube?
Do you understand the trading philosophy of @TheVivekSinghal?
Do you trade based on teachings and strategies of @TheVivekSinghal sir ?
If your answers to above questions is "No", I may not be able to make you understand my point.
Welcome to ExtraClass #11 ๐
If I am able to make you understand today's topic, I will treat myself today๐๐๐จ๐. It's very important, please pay attentionโ ๏ธ๐
In today's class, we will try to understand why we should not focus on CAGR in the initial 4-5 years of trading โ๏ธ๐ค
@TheVivekSinghal sir mentioned that in the initial years, we shouldnโt worry too much about the overall CAGR of our portfolio (or more accurately, XIRR).
๐ Instead, the focus should be on the CAGR of our sold positions: the ones weโve exited after the price reached the target as per our strategy.
Let's try to understand this through my own investing journey.
I started investing in the stock market three years ago, and since then, Iโve been regularly investing a 50โ of my monthly salary. I never invested a lump sum. And, I have been always remained fully invested in the market.
Accordingly, my average invested period is around 1.5 years, not 3 years.
๐๐ Why Is CAGR So Volatile in the Initial Years?
As of today, my portfolio CAGR is around 18%. But that number is highly volatile because:
My average holding period is still short (only 1.5 years).
Now suppose, the market fall by 10% from here. This fall will get averaged out over a short investment period of 1.5 years. So, my CAGR will fall by ~7% and become ~ 11โ .
Similarly, if the market rises 10%, my CAGR will jump by ~ 7โ and become ~ 25%.
Thus, with 10โ variations in market at this stage, my CAGR of portfolio can vary from 11โ to 25โ .
โณ Why CAGR Become Stable in the Long Term?
Now fast forwardโฉ
Let's say my average invested period has become 10 years and my CAGR is now 25โ .
Now, at this point:
Suppose, the market falls by 10%, my CAGR will fall by less than 1% only. Why?
Thatโs because this 10โ fall will get averaged out over a 10 year's investment period.
Similarly, if market rallies by 10โ , my CAGR will increase by less than 1โ .
Thus, with 10โ variations in market at this stage, my CAGR of portfolio can vary from 24โ to 26โ only.
Insight :๐ก
The longer you stay invested, the more stable your CAGR becomes and the less sensitive it is to short-term market volatility.
๐ A Real-Life Example from My Portfolio
In September 2024, when the market peaked, my CAGR was over 30%.
By March 2025, when the market made a bottom (smallcap index fell by ~ 29โ from peak), my CAGR dropped to around 2%.
In July 2025, the market recovered to the same level as September 2024, and my net profit was also back to the same level. And, my CAGR became 18%.
Why is my CAGR still lower, even though profit is the same?
Because time has passed. From Sept 2024 to July 2025, 10 months have gone by. So while the profit is the same, itโs now spread over a longer period, and that naturally lowers the CAGR.
โ Today's Takeaway ๐
This clearly shows why CAGR in early years is extremely volatile, and why it only starts to reflect the true performance of your strategy after many years of consistent investing.
So in the beginning, donโt chase perfect CAGR numbers....... just focus on refining your process and sticking to it with discipline.
So far, you have listened to my brain.
Now, listen to my soul โจ๐ข
In July, 2022 when I watched @TheVivekSinghal sir's online classes for the first time, I felt a level of respect I had never felt before for anyone in my life.
In had same level of respect for him in Sept, 2024 when my CAGR was 30โ +
I had same level of respect for him in March, 2025 when my CAGR was ~2โ
I have same level of respect for him today when my CAGR is ~ 18โ
๐ My respect for @TheVivekSinghal sir has never depended on numbers..... it's rooted in something far deeper and wider.
I don't want to open my soul more than this for now....... Letโs go back to the brain ๐ง .....
After completing the sir's classes (freely & publicly available), I planned my wealth building journey and took the following pledge ๐
"On this day, as India celebrates 100th anniversary of Independence, I have Rs. 100 CR networth. I am fit, healthy and enjoying this wealth. Thank you Lord Shiva. Thank you @TheVivekSinghal sir"
Date: 15-08-2047
โ๏ธ Signed by: the brain, body & soul of the man behind @ExtraClassIndia
Letโs walk together on this beautiful journey of life ๐ถโโ๏ธ๐ถโโ๏ธ๐ซโค๏ธ
My dear friend, mark my words!!
This journey of building generational wealth is not about CAGR.
Itโs about something far greater...... which Iโll share in a future ExtraClass. ๐
Tab tk maje kro yar. Khud bhi seekho aur dusaro ke sath bhi share kro. ๐
โ Ruko Ruko...
โ Drop a "Yes" in the comments if you understood today's class! Feedback matters !!
๐ Got a doubt? Feel free to ask!
โ ๏ธ Spotted an error? Point it out..... we grow together! ๐ค๐
Jai Hind ๐ฎ๐ณ ๐
Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions. ๐ก๐
Welcome to ExtraClass #11 ๐
If I am able to make you understand today's topic, I will treat myself today๐๐๐จ๐. It's very important, please pay attentionโ ๏ธ๐
In today's class, we will try to understand why we should not focus on CAGR in the initial 4-5 years of trading โ๏ธ๐ค
@TheVivekSinghal sir mentioned that in the initial years, we shouldnโt worry too much about the overall CAGR of our portfolio (or more accurately, XIRR).
๐ Instead, the focus should be on the CAGR of our sold positions: the ones weโve exited after the price reached the target as per our strategy.
Let's try to understand this through my own investing journey.
I started investing in the stock market three years ago, and since then, Iโve been regularly investing a 50โ of my monthly salary. I never invested a lump sum. And, I have been always remained fully invested in the market.
Accordingly, my average invested period is around 1.5 years, not 3 years.
๐๐ Why Is CAGR So Volatile in the Initial Years?
As of today, my portfolio CAGR is around 18%. But that number is highly volatile because:
My average holding period is still short (only 1.5 years).
Now suppose, the market fall by 10% from here. This fall will get averaged out over a short investment period of 1.5 years. So, my CAGR will fall by ~7% and become ~ 11โ .
Similarly, if the market rises 10%, my CAGR will jump by ~ 7โ and become ~ 25%.
Thus, with 10โ variations in market at this stage, my CAGR of portfolio can vary from 11โ to 25โ .
โณ Why CAGR Become Stable in the Long Term?
Now fast forwardโฉ
Let's say my average invested period has become 10 years and my CAGR is now 25โ .
Now, at this point:
Suppose, the market falls by 10%, my CAGR will fall by less than 1% only. Why?
Thatโs because this 10โ fall will get averaged out over a 10 year's investment period.
Similarly, if market rallies by 10โ , my CAGR will increase by less than 1โ .
Thus, with 10โ variations in market at this stage, my CAGR of portfolio can vary from 24โ to 26โ only.
Insight :๐ก
The longer you stay invested, the more stable your CAGR becomes and the less sensitive it is to short-term market volatility.
๐ A Real-Life Example from My Portfolio
In September 2024, when the market peaked, my CAGR was over 30%.
By March 2025, when the market made a bottom (smallcap index fell by ~ 29โ from peak), my CAGR dropped to around 2%.
In July 2025, the market recovered to the same level as September 2024, and my net profit was also back to the same level. And, my CAGR became 18%.
Why is my CAGR still lower, even though profit is the same?
Because time has passed. From Sept 2024 to July 2025, 10 months have gone by. So while the profit is the same, itโs now spread over a longer period, and that naturally lowers the CAGR.
โ Today's Takeaway ๐
This clearly shows why CAGR in early years is extremely volatile, and why it only starts to reflect the true performance of your strategy after many years of consistent investing.
So in the beginning, donโt chase perfect CAGR numbers....... just focus on refining your process and sticking to it with discipline.
So far, you have listened to my brain.
Now, listen to my soul โจ๐ข
In July, 2022 when I watched @TheVivekSinghal sir's online classes for the first time, I felt a level of respect I had never felt before for anyone in my life.
In had same level of respect for him in Sept, 2024 when my CAGR was 30โ +
I had same level of respect for him in March, 2025 when my CAGR was ~2โ
I have same level of respect for him today when my CAGR is ~ 18โ
๐ My respect for @TheVivekSinghal sir has never depended on numbers..... it's rooted in something far deeper and wider.
I don't want to open my soul more than this for now....... Letโs go back to the brain ๐ง .....
After completing the sir's classes (freely & publicly available), I planned my wealth building journey and took the following pledge ๐
"On this day, as India celebrates 100th anniversary of Independence, I have Rs. 100 CR networth. I am fit, healthy and enjoying this wealth. Thank you Lord Shiva. Thank you @TheVivekSinghal sir"
Date: 15-08-2047
โ๏ธ Signed by: the brain, body & soul of the man behind @ExtraClassIndia
Letโs walk together on this beautiful journey of life ๐ถโโ๏ธ๐ถโโ๏ธ๐ซโค๏ธ
My dear friend, mark my words!!
This journey of building generational wealth is not about CAGR.
Itโs about something far greater...... which Iโll share in a future ExtraClass. ๐
Tab tk maje kro yar. Khud bhi seekho aur dusaro ke sath bhi share kro. ๐
โ Ruko Ruko...
โ Drop a "Yes" in the comments if you understood today's class! Feedback matters !!
๐ Got a doubt? Feel free to ask!
โ ๏ธ Spotted an error? Point it out..... we grow together! ๐ค๐
Jai Hind ๐ฎ๐ณ ๐
Disclaimer:
This is not investment advice. Please do your own research before making any financial decisions. ๐ก๐
๐ My Net Worth Allocation (counting only self-built wealth created from salary savings) ~ 2.25 cr ๐ฐ
Equities = 29 %
Real Estate = 27 %
NPS = 26%
PPF = 9%
Bank FD/Ac = 5%
Others (rishtedaron ko udhari = distressed asset ๐ ) = 4%
๐ฏ Over the last 3 years, all my fresh investments have gone exclusively into equities. ๐
๐ My goal is to gradually increase the equity allocation to 60%+ of my net worth through continued investing and compounding.
๐ฅ I also plan to build a meaningful position in Gold in the coming years, when gold prices normalises (comes near the longterm average).
๐ 99% of traders either don't have a well-defined strategy or lack the discipline to follow one consistently. ๐ฏโ
๐ 0.99% of traders do follow a strategy, but they understand only their own approach and often assume that other approaches cannot work. ๐จ๐
๐ง Only 0.01% of traders (like @TheVivekSinghal sir) recognize that markets offer multiple paths to success. They understand different trading and investing styles, their underlying logic, strengths, limitations, and the conditions under which each can work. ๐โ๏ธ
๐ฏ They also understand that no single approach is universally superior. Different approaches suit different temperaments, personalities, risk appetites, goals, and life circumstances. ๐ค๐๐ก
๐ Who Should Use a Stop-Loss? ๐ค๐
1๏ธโฃ If you pick stocks primarily based on price action, chart patterns, and momentum ๐๐, your thesis is invalidated when the price behaves differently from what you expected. In such cases, a price-based stop-loss is an essential risk-management tool. ๐โ ๏ธ๐ก๏ธ
2๏ธโฃ If you pick stocks primarily based on business quality, valuation, and a medium-to-long-term investment thesis ๐ข๐๐ฐ, short-term price volatility ๐๐ does not necessarily invalidate the thesis. With disciplined position sizing (e.g., 2โ3% of capital per position) ๐ฏ๐, not using a price-based stop-loss can be a reasonable approach, provided the business thesis remains intact. ๐ง โ ๐
๐ก The usefulness of a stop-loss depends on the strategy being followed. Applying the same rule across different approaches, time horizons โณ, and position-sizing frameworks ๐๐ผ can create more confusion than clarity. ๐คทโโ๏ธ๐ซ๏ธ
๐ฏ Every risk-management rule should be evaluated within the context of the strategy it is meant to serve.
A student of @TheVivekSinghal sir ๐๐
Query: Where did @TheVivekSinghal sir go wrong in suggesting Rajesh Exports? ๐ค
My Response ๐๐
Before responding to the above query, let me first summarize some of the core lessons taught by Vivek Sir in his online classes, which are freely available on his YouTube channel ๐
๐น As retail investors, we generally have to rely on audited financial statements and balance sheets certified by CAs. ๐
๐น Even if a company clears all the parameters of a good business, frauds can still happen. Cases like Satyam have shown that not everything can be detected in advance. โ ๏ธ
๐น Retail investors are usually not capable of consistently detecting frauds early. In the stock market, unexpected things can happen to any particular business. ๐
To address these realities, Sir has always emphasized risk management:
โ Never deploy more than 3% of total capital in a single trade, irrespective of how high your conviction may be. ๐ฏ
โ Average up or take a second entry only when either the valuation becomes more attractive or the financial/business performance has improved since the first purchase. ๐
The foundation of the approach itself acknowledges that any stock can fail, even go to zero. The objective is to ensure that such an event does not derail your long-term compounding journey. ๐ฑ
As I am still relatively new to the market and my understanding of businesses is evolving, I have reduced this limit further and generally deploy only 1โ2% of capital per trade. ๐
I am comfortable tracking stocks, maintaining watchlists, monitoring quarterly results, maintaining a detailed trading ledger, and evaluating portfolio performance. Because of this, I am also comfortable managing a portfolio of 50โ60 stocks. ๐๐
I have often stated that I follow an approach where the boom ๐ or doom ๐ฅ of any single stock should neither make nor break my portfolio.
Therefore, when people ask, "Where did Vivek Sir go wrong in suggesting Rajesh Exports?" ๐คทโโ๏ธ
My mind goes in a different direction.
I wonder, "Where did investors go wrong if a single trade was capable of causing serious injury to their overall portfolio?" ๐ค
A stock going wrong is always a possibility.
In my view, a portfolio suffering serious damage because of just one or two stocks is often a position-sizing problem ๐, not merely a question of stock selection criteria.
This is a very generic statement. ๐ค
The real question is: How do you determine that a company is actually heading in the wrong direction? ๐
Every business goes through ups and downs. ๐๐ Every industry experiences cycles. ๐ Temporary setbacks, weak quarters, and difficult periods are a normal part of business. ๐ญ
So where exactly do you draw the line? โ
There are many differences between Mutual Fund investing and Direct Stock Investing, but this little story captures the essence quite well. ๐๐
๐ฉ A girl catches the attention of two boys, and both want to impress her.
๐งโ๐ป Boy #1 downloads her photo from social media, gets it printed, puts it in a nice frame, and gifts it to her. ๐๐ผ๏ธ
๐จ Boy #2 learns painting, spends hours sketching her portrait by hand, builds the frame himself, and then presents it to her. ๐๏ธ๐ผ๏ธโค๏ธ
Both end up gifting a framed picture of the same girl. ๐
But the effort, skill, involvement, learning, and sense of ownership are completely different. ๐คทโโ๏ธ
๐ Investing through Mutual Funds is a bit like Boy #1's approach ... someone else does the hard work, and you get the finished product. ๐
๐ Direct Stock Investing is more like Boy #2's approach ... you study businesses, analyze numbers, make decisions yourself, learn from mistakes, and build your portfolio with your own hands. ๐๐๐ช
Both can lead to a happy ending. ๐
The difference is that one buys the outcome, while the other enjoys the journey of creating it. ๐โจ
Moral of the story: If you don't enjoy the journey of stock investing, and are in the market purely for financial returns, go for mutual funds. ๐
@siddhant629@TheVivekSinghal Then you didn't understand my approach.
In my approach, I am not chasing any multibagger stock. My aim is to grow my overall portfolio at 15-25% CAGR over next 30-40 years.
I understand multibagger approach, and I am not attempting that.