most perp farmers have no idea if they’re printing or donating
they see points go up and think it’s alpha
but points are just a pre-market asset with a hidden cost basis
so i did the napkin math for variational
polymarket currently prices $var fdv around:
> $300m+ - ~72%
> $500m+ - ~51%
https://t.co/7pkr4MXsHK
points side:
> 3m retro points to early users
> ~150k pts/week
> ~3.3m already emitted after 22 weeks
> rewards end no later than q3 2026
> around 9m max points if the program runs until the end
implied value per point:
10% airdrop
> $300m fdv = $3.33/pt
> $500m fdv = $5.56/pt
15% airdrop
> $300m fdv = $5.00/pt
> $500m fdv = $8.33/pt
20% airdrop
> $300m fdv = $6.67/pt
> $500m fdv = $11.11/pt
otc is already around ~$5 bid / ~$15 ask
my first week was bad: ~$8/point
i tried farming it like lighter with btc/eth volume and got cooked by the math
now testing smaller size + holding positions in lower oi markets like hype/bnb
sol felt worse because spreads were too expensive
my current take:
if you can farm variational below ~$5/point, it looks asymmetric
if you’re farming at $8-10/point, you’re not early
you’re just buying a pre-tge lottery ticket with extra steps
not guaranteed:
> point supply can change
> airdrop % can disappoint
> fdv can nuke
> rules can change
but unlike most farms, this one is actually underwritable
that’s the whole game now
not “farm more points”
farm points cheaper than the market is pricing them
ref gives +15% points boost + bronze adds another +0.5%
https://t.co/Z31RwJJf2m
code: OMNIQPSYCHO
also built a dashboard to pair perp farms with funding/arb and lower farming cost https://t.co/J7Ngndkyk3
@_donkeyRHubarb Believe in $gulya too. Same stickers pack narrative and it just got cto’d by a based team few hours ago. Only beta play to $utya rn @_GULYA_CTO
https://t.co/kPxuHngufr