This is what you are actually buying.
The bookmaker says 71%. Our model says 79%. The gap is 7.5% and it is printed on the card, with the price and the book offering it.
Twenty of those on the board today. That is the product, not the pitch.
Spot on, and that is why both numbers are in the post. The sheet quotes the best price across the books at lock time: 1.40, 1.50 and 1.62, a 3.40 treble. The slip is one shop: 7/20, 4/9 and 8/13 make 3.15, and the boost took it to 3.24. About five percent left on the counter for not shopping the price. I put the tenner on because I believe in the sheet, and I post the slip win or lose. Same picks, different tills.
Saturday's Pro sheet, graded.
THE BOARD, five legs, three landed
❌ Alverca v Rio Ave, Over 1.5, 1.35. Finished 1-0, one goal short.
❌ Northampton v Rotherham, Over 1.5, 1.35. Finished 0-1, one goal short.
✅ Osasuna v Rayo Vallecano, Over 1.5, 1.35. Finished 1-1.
✅ Portsmouth v Blackburn, Over 1.5, 1.37. Finished 2-2.
✅ Angers v Estac Troyes, Over 1.5, 1.38. Finished 2-0.
£10 on the five-fold at William Hill, lost. Two legs short.
THE FOLDS, built from the board
❌ The double, 1.82.
❌ The treble, 2.46.
THE TRIAL, both teams to score, half stake, kept separate
✅ Molde v Aalesund, 1.40. Finished 1-2.
✅ Tamworth v Wealdstone, 1.50. Finished 2-1.
✅ Ajax v Excelsior, 1.62. Finished 2-2.
£10 on the treble at William Hill returned £32.36.
THE DESK'S CALLS, two singles, one landed
❌ Atletico-MG v Chapecoense-sc, Atletico-MG to win, 1.36. Finished 1-1.
✅ Hamilton Academical v Queen of the South, Hamilton Academical to win, 1.30. Finished 4-1.
Why those five were on the board and nothing else: every one had landed in at least 9 of its last 12 and was priced above its own break-even. Seven hundred and thirty-three other markets were refused on Saturday, each with the reason printed.
Locked before kick-off. Graded at 09:38. The losing ones stay on the page.
One leg is free every day, no account. The rest is Pro, seven days for £1.
Right, and that's the honest way to read it. The double is the book's price, not ours; we don't price folds, we multiply the legs the rule kept. What we publish is the count behind each leg against its own break-even, and the fold is those legs multiplied, margin and all. Where the book has it, we say so.
Friday's Pro sheet, graded.
THE BOARD, four legs, four landed
✅ Queen's Park v Ayr, Over 1.5, 1.36. Finished 0-2.
✅ Groningen v PEC Zwolle, Over 2.5, 1.40. Finished 3-0.
✅ Brentford v Chelsea, Over 2.5, 1.50. Finished 3-0.
✅ Yeovil v Solihull Moors, Over 2.5, 1.68. Finished 4-1.
A £10 four-fold returned £48.
THE FOLDS, built from the board
✅ The double, 1.90.
✅ The treble, 2.86.
THE TRIAL, both teams to score, half stake, kept separate
❌ Bristol City v Watford, 1.72. Finished 1-0, one goal short.
✅ Espanyol v Elche, 1.73. Finished 1-3.
✅ Annecy v Dijon, 1.75. Finished 1-2.
Why those four were on the board and nothing else: every one had landed in at least 9 of its last 12 and was priced above its own break-even. Sixty-eight other markets were refused on Friday, each with the reason printed.
Locked before kick-off. Graded at 22:08. The losing ones stay on the page.
One leg is free every day, no account. The rest is Pro, seven days for £1.
Today's free acca. 3 legs at 2.02.
Burton Albion v Mansfield Town, Over 1.5 goals, Sat 19 Sept.
Gillingham v Bristol Rovers, Over 1.5 goals, Sat 19 Sept.
Athletic Club v Alaves, Over 1.5 goals, Sat 19 Sept.
Published before kick-off, graded tonight whatever happens.
Friday's sheet: The model's own acca landed. 3 from 3 at 2.16x.
Espanyol v Elche, Over 1.5, 1-3.
Brentford v Chelsea, Under 4.5, 3-0.
Monaco v Lens, Monaco or Draw, 2-1.
Every lane on the sheet is published before kick-off and graded in public, wins and losses.
Friday's measured board: 4 of 4 landed.
Queen's Park v Ayr Utd, Over 1.5 at 1.36, 0-2, landed.
Groningen v PEC Zwolle, Over 2.5 at 1.40, 3-0, landed.
Brentford v Chelsea, Over 2.5 at 1.50, 3-0, landed.
Yeovil Town v Solihull Moors, Over 2.5 at 1.68, 4-1, landed.
Today's bankers, free. 3 singles from the model's best tracked markets.
Brentford v Chelsea, Over 2.5 goals at 1.48.
Bristol City v Watford, Under 3.5 goals at 1.38.
Espanyol v Elche, Under 3.5 goals at 1.38.
Published before kick-off, graded tonight whatever happens.