François Geerolf #EN

Economist at Sciences Po-OFCE, former @UCLA. Research Affiliate @cepr_org.

[François Geerolf #EN @FGeerolf]

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"⤵️

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

It's actually not possible to drive a truck from Germany to Kyrgyzstan without passing through Russia. So no surprise that much of what Germany says gets exported to Kyrgyzstan (black) never actually arrives there (blue). Kyrgyzstan is just what it says on the export invoice...

[Science Is Strategic @scienceisstrat1]

Europe 🇪🇺 is way behind in tech 💻

[Ralph Schoellhammer @Raphfel]

There has been a quiet uptick in Russian gas imports since Q3 2023.

The Europeans are circumventing their own sanctions.

[Andrew Chen @achenfinance]

Prediction does not imply understanding. But does understanding imply prediction? That seems to be an implication of falsifiable theories.

[Isabella M Weber @IsabellaMWeber]

Germany’s growth outlook is worst of all OECD countries except for Milei’s Argentina.

The energy shock has been downplayed by prominent economists. It is now eroding the industrial core.

Add fiscal tightening and you have the perfect storm.

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

This is German industrial production. The reason Germany avoided recession in 2022, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, is luck: supply chains started working again, giving a one-off boost to car production. That's over and now there is contraction with no end in sight...

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

what is the point of these models?https://t.co/BIIvzDFjK2

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

CHART OF THE DAY: The end of the German industrial might.

Industrial output fell across the board in Dec, with a sharp drop in the energy-intensive sector (red line).

Annual data now shows that German chemical production plunged to a 28-year low.

ICYMY: https://t.co/OonhEFiY2h

[François Geerolf #EN @FGeerolf]

True. But if one takes a longer perspective, it becomes perhaps a bit less impressive...

[Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias]

Notable that there are more manufacturing jobs than at any point under Trump.

[Arin Dube @arindube]

There's a long history of people (Andrew Mellon during Great Depression) who thought liquidationism* was the path to dynamism.

If anything, the opposite. The GFC, for example, led to a demise in dynamism, which only recovered after running the economy hot following Covid.

[François Geerolf #EN @FGeerolf]

€ area household saving rate down over the quarter, but still up since before Covid-19, especially in 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪.

[EU_Eurostat @EU_Eurostat]

Euro area household saving rate down to 14.0% and business profit share decreases to 40.2% in Q3 2023 https://t.co/WXVkx4duJN

[Paul Krugman @paulkrugman]

Now that we have CPI, we have real wages for end-2023; Arin Dube has done the math. Up substantially, both over the year and relative to pre-pandemic, for most workers 1/

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

Best universities in the world, 2024.

1. 🇺🇸 MIT
2. 🇬🇧 Cambridge
3. 🇬🇧 Oxford
4. 🇺🇸 Harvard
5. 🇺🇸 Stanford
6. 🇬🇧 Imperial College London
7. 🇨🇭 ETH Zurich
8. 🇸🇬 National University of Singapore
9. 🇬🇧 UCL
10. 🇺🇸 University of California, Berkeley

(QS World Uni Rankings)

[Fermat's Library @fermatslibrary]

Which is greater 1000¹⁰⁰¹ or 1001¹⁰⁰⁰?

[François Geerolf #EN @FGeerolf]

@paulkrugman updated:

[François Geerolf #EN @FGeerolf]

@paulkrugman Indeed !
https://t.co/CYV5LcryEQ

[Paul Krugman @paulkrugman]

Given that everyone knows that BLS shelter indexes lag far behind market rents, surprising that we don't hear more about HICP, which excludes owners' equivalent rent. It's been saying for a while that inflation is under control

[Claudia Sahm @Claudia_Sahm]

The Phillips Curve

[Stanley Pignal @spignal]

54% of French 18- to 24-year-olds would be tempted to move to another country due to the political/economic situation (and 30% of the population overall)

Places they fancy emigrating to: Canada, America, Germany.

[Claudia Sahm @Claudia_Sahm]

“Most people think the Federal Reserve is a national forest out West.” ~ Alan Blinder, former Vice Chair Fed. Agree.