Football Intelligence

Finding what Premier League results don't tell you. xG, performance trends & hidden changes.

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[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

Coventry v Newcastle tonight.

After five games, Newcastle had 8 points from performances worth 4.2. Results well ahead of the underlying numbers.

They were also facing 19.6 shots a game, more than any other side.

Coventry have the opposite problem, 1 goal from chances worth 4.2.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

Liverpool v Man City today, and the biggest gap between them is finishing.

City: 13 goals from chances worth 10.0.
Liverpool: 6 from 8.4.
(Penalties excluded.)

Liverpool also take 41% of their shots from outside the box. City: 24%.

Haaland has 20 shots and 10 on target, both league highs. Wirtz has 12 shots and no league goal yet.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

I’ve been building weekly intelligence reports for every Premier League club.

Not just results. Each one shows:

- where the team sits in the table v the expected table
- six measures of how it’s changing, ranked against the league
- which players are driving it

Here’s Aston Villa from December 2025. 3rd in the table, but 15th on expected points. Their attack had more than doubled (0.84 to 1.93 xG a game), led by Watkins, Malen and Tielemans.

I’ve now built them for all 20 clubs this season.

Which club would you want to see next?

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

Two interesting snippets early in the season.

Pascal Groß is having one of the best starts in the league.

3 goals, 3 assists and 15 key passes in five games. No one has created more chances.

His xG per 90 has trebled on last season, from 0.12 to 0.37. Brighton are 3rd.

Bukayo Saka’s numbers have jumped this season.

xG per 90: 0.76, up from 0.29 last season, the biggest rise of any established player.

3 goals, 9 shots on target and 15 fouls won in five games.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

@OptaAnalyst Agree they’re better than 20th. 2 goals from 5.2 xG, and 8 conceded from shots on target worth 4.7.

One catch: first up is Man United, 12th in the table but 1st for xG difference.

After that it gets kinder. Coventry and Palace are 18th and 20th on xG difference.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

@soccerment Great thread. One gap it points to is finishing.

City: 13 goals from 10.0 xG.

Liverpool: 6 from 8.4.
(Penalties excluded.)

Fits the shot-distance point too. Wirtz has 12 shots, chances worth 1.7 goals, and no league goal yet.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

February 2026: Spurs’ attack was improving. xG up from 1.06 to 1.64 a game.

But xG conceded rose from 1.35 to 2.16, the biggest defensive decline in the league.

Result: 2 points from five games.

One good number isn’t the whole story.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

Chelsea's attack looked like it was surging in February 2026: xG up from 1.80 to 2.69 a game.

But they'd scored five penalties in five games.

Take the penalties out and it was 1.72 to 1.90.

The headline number doesn't always tell the full story.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

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[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

In December, Aston Villa were 3rd in the Premier League.

On expected points, they were 15th.

But something genuinely had changed: their attack more than doubled in five games.

I built an engine that looks for shifts like this. A few things it found last season.

[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

I'm thinking of turning it into a free email every Tuesday.

Football Intelligence Signals: what the table isn't telling you.

Three stories the engine found, one chart each, a few more on the radar. A four-minute read. No predictions, no tips.

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[The NFL Lens @TheNFLLens]

Most fantasy advice resets every Monday. Someone else's rankings. Someone else's start/sit calls. Someone else's conclusions. The managers who consistently win leagues aren't consuming more advice. They're building their own framework.

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[Football Intelligence @FI_Signals]

@Watch_LFC The Font is about a ten min walk from the station and is a reds pub.