FOMC Insight Engine

90 years of Federal Reserve documents. Searchable. Free.
What did they say behind closed doors?
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Economic forecasting is a foundational but fallible part of monetary policy. These archives highlight the constant battle between models and real-world volatility. Explore more internal FOMC documents here: https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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How accurate are the Federal Reserve’s economic forecasts during a crisis? Examining the FOMC’s historical projection errors reveals a challenging reality for staff economists trying to predict the future. A thread 🧵

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Even top officials struggle with the "why" behind the misses. In the archive, Mr. Engen admits: “Probably pretty close to that. I don’t have the exact decomposition of forecast errors.” Pinpointing why a forecast failed is often as hard as the forecast itself.

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"Could I add one element of ambiguity to the picture, please?"
— David W. Wilcox, 2018

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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📅 On this day in 1951: Chairman William McChesney Martin Jr. met with the FOMC as economists warned the market would face "pressure" from an increasing need for reserve funds over the coming months. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. 🔍 https://t.co/VGYM5YIwhb

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Increased competition that results from new forms of money and payments could lower costs, increase service availability, and stimulate further innovation.
— Lorie K. Logan, 2022

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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📅 February 2016 — forward guidance debate

🎤 Public: "it creates excessive certainty"

🔒 Internal: "We can readily vary this length of time"

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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I have heard the concern that some firms may raise prices opportunistically while blaming the tariff increase.
— Christopher J. Waller, 2025

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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📅 On this day in 1941: Chair Eccles explains why the Fed must curb "instalment credit." As defense spending drove incomes up but goods became scarce, he noted: "demands of defense must have the right of way over civilian needs." History rhymes. 🔍 https://t.co/BnKMeuVKzk

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Housing market cycles repeat, and the FOMC transcripts offer a front-row seat to the concerns of those at the helm of the economy.

Explore the full history of Fed discussions on housing and more here: https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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What can we learn from the Fed's private discussions about housing market crashes? 🏚️

History shows that policymakers often see the warning signs long before the public does. Here are the housing market concerns found in the FOMC archives.

A thread 🧵

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Great Moderation era: "The homebuilders... told me that the low interest rates and the new financial products created an environment in which they did five years’ worth of business in the space of three years." — Ms. Pianalto

Overheating was visible to those on the ground.

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BERNANKE: "May I ask the staff, do you have institutional memory on this question?"
MADIGAN: "Well, I think it is a matter of how the members interpreted it in responding."
— FOMC, 2007

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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📅 On this day in 1947: Fed Gov Szymczak argued that funding German coal production was "worthwhile" to reduce the "strain on our own economy" caused by global relief demands. Economic stability abroad was key to domestic health. 🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

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These purchases are intended to reduce intermediate- and longer-term interest rates on mortgages and other credit to households and businesses
— Donald L. Kohn, 2009

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq

[FOMC Insight Engine @FOMCInsight]

📅 February 2016 — forward guidance debate

🎤 Public: "it creates excessive certainty about the future"

🔒 Internal: "We can readily vary this length of time"

🔍 https://t.co/F3p3lhU8Zq