FPL An Special One

FPL Enthusiast
Building Models for FPL
Statistics Degree
Chelsea Fan

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

I have built a model to give probabilistic predictions for the starting XI of every premier league team on Gameweek 1 of the Premier League football season, and am giving daily updates, which will help FPL managers.

The 10 main factors are: Availability, Expected Transfers, Position Competition, Manager System, Last Season Role/Minutes, Preseason Friendly Evidence, New Manager Uncertainty, World Cup Fatigue, Injury/Rest Risk, Age.

The graphics show the most likely formation, most likely starting XI, the probability that each player starts in any position - E.g. Trai Hume is currently 80% because he can play LB, RB or RW. Reasons for non-starters and colour key are on every graphic.

Please inform me if you think something has been missed or could be improved, or if you disagree with any of my predictions, and we can discuss!

Enjoy my posts! #FPL

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Here is my final FPL draft. Roast me as hard as possible.

Strategy is no Haaland and Bench Boost on GW1 and I will very likely Free Hit on GW3. Therefore, I am optimising for GWs 1, 2 and 4, as it is also possible that I could Wildcard in GW5 if Haaland becomes insanely essential, and if it becomes clearer who the cheap gems are.

Therefore, triple Arsenal, triple Chelsea, triple Man U, double Everton + Verbruggen, Hume, Semenyo and Thiago.

🔴⚪Triple Arsenal: White seems the safest option with Timber out for enough time. Calafiori is a minutes risk, but he is better than Mosquera due to Konsa possibly taking over at CB from GW2. Tzolis is the fun new toy, who proved himself in preseason and the community shield.

🔵 Triple Chelsea: I am a Chelsea fan and Chelsea have great fixtures GWs 1, 2 and 4. I think Palmer is essential, now that he is properly fit again (he was injured essentially all of last season, but tried to play anyway) and Joao Pedro needs no explanation. Colwill is the safest defence choice - long term I can see myself switching to Palestra or Rogers if they prove that they will get the minutes and the points.

🔴⚫ Triple Man U: Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo need no explanation. Mbeumo has been on fire and will start up front. Lammens is the defensive asset that just fitted around the rest of my team, could have been Maguire.

🔵⚪ Double Everton: Here is where my differentials are at! Mykolenko is the cheapest way into Everton's defence, but mostly I wanted to attack a weak Crystal Palace side for the opening game. Shocked to see Thierno Barry have only 1% ownership as their clear starter this season and a bit cheaper than the 6M forwards.

🔵⚪ Verbruggen: I have an irrational aversion to Brighton players. But when I had to choose a 4.5M GK for BB1, I couldn't look past their home fixture to an Aston Villa side that can barely field a team. This is not a Brighton pick - it is an anti Aston Villa pick.

🔴⚪ Hume: Shocked at his pricing at 4.5M. He started more premier league games for Sunderland than any other player last season, and can play in absolutely any positon. Le Bris loves him, and he had a great pre-season.

🔵⚪ Semenyo: Since Semenyo joined City in January, Haaland's points dried up a lot as Semenyo started sharing the goals with him. He is absolutely essential, regardless of whetehr or not you have Haaland.

🔴⚪ Thiago: Big chance Brentford pass it forward and tap it across goal for simple tap-ins and Thiago is their only striker, and he is on penalties. He will score more than 20 goals again.

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Should have mentioned this is only outfield players - not the GKs

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Here are the players that my model sees as almost nailed (>85%) to start GW1. Note there are 114 players in this list, so it shouldn't be surprising if 8 or 9 players on this list don't actually start:

Arsenal
🔴⚪ 96% White (D5.5)
🔴⚪ 95% Gabriel (D8.0)
🔴⚪ 94% Mosquera (D5.5)
🔴⚪ 94% Ødegaard (M6.5)
🔴⚪ 92% Calafiori (D5.5)
🔴⚪ 91% Tzolis (M6.5)
🔴⚪ 87% Saka (M9.5)
🔴⚪ 86% Rice (M7.5)

Aston Villa
🟤🔵 94% McGinn (M5.5)
🟤🔵 93% Cash (D4.5)
🟤🔵 92% Torres (D4.5)
🟤🔵 88% Kamara (M5.0)
🟤🔵 85% Barkley (M5.0)

AFC Bournemouth
🔴⚫ 97% Kluivert (M6.0)
🔴⚫ 96% Truffert (D5.5)
🔴⚫ 94% Tavernier (M6.0)
🔴⚫ 92% Evanilson (F6.0)
🔴⚫ 92% Hill (D5.5)

Brentford
🔴⚪ 98% Collins (D5.5)
🔴⚪ 97% Igor Thiago (F8.0)
🔴⚪ 95% Schade (M6.0)
🔴⚪ 93% Lewis-Potter (M5.5)
🔴⚪ 90% Kayode (D4.5)
🔴⚪ 89% Ajer (D4.5)
🔴⚪ 88% M. Sangaré (M5.5)

Brighton & Hove Albion
🔵⚪ 95% Ayari (M5.5)
🔵⚪ 95% Kadıoğlu (D4.5)
🔵⚪ 93% Hinshelwood (M6.0)
🔵⚪ 92% Groß (M5.5)
🔵⚪ 90% Gómez (M5.0)
🔵⚪ 86% Rutter (F5.5)

Chelsea
🔵 96% Caicedo (M5.5)
🔵 96% Palmer (M9.5)
🔵 96% Rogers (M7.5)
🔵 94% João Pedro (F7.5)
🔵 93% Colwill (D5.0)
🔵 86% Palestra (D5.5)
🔵 86% R. James (D5.5)
🔵 85% Neto (M6.5)

Coventry City
🔵⚪ 98% Grimes (M5.0)
🔵⚪ 95% Van Ewijk (D4.0)
🔵⚪ 94% Dasilva (D4.0)
🔵⚪ 92% Thomas (D4.0)
🔵⚪ 86% Simms (F5.0)
🔵⚪ 86% Tchaouna (M5.5)
🔵⚪ 86% Yirenkyi (M5.0)
🔵⚪ 85% Amenda (D4.0)

Crystal Palace
🔴🔵 96% Richards (D5.0)
🔴🔵 94% Mitchell (D4.5)
🔴🔵 85% Mingueza (D4.5)

Everton
🔵⚪ 97% Tarkowski (D6.0)
🔵⚪ 95% Armstrong (M5.0)
🔵�� 95% Ndiaye (M6.0)
🔵⚪ 94% Hackney (M5.5)
🔵⚪ 93% Barry (F5.5)
🔵⚪ 93% Mykolenko (D4.5)
🔵⚪ 86% Dewsbury-Hall (M6.5)
🔵⚪ 85% Branthwaite (D5.5)

Fulham
⚪⚫ 94% Bassey (D4.5)
⚪⚫ 88% Cuenca (D4.5)
⚪⚫ 88% Iwobi (M5.5)
⚪⚫ 85% Robinson (D4.5)

Hull City
🟠⚫ 96% McBurnie (F5.5)
🟠⚫ 94% Belloumi (M5.0)
���⚫ 93% Coyle (D4.0)
🟠⚫ 93% Slater (M4.5)
🟠⚫ 90% Ajayi (D4.0)

Ipswich Town
🔵⚪ 95% Emersonn (F5.5)
🔵⚪ 94% Davis (D4.0)
🔵⚪ 94% O'Shea (D4.0)
🔵⚪ 86% Greaves (D4.0)

Leeds United
⚪🟡 95% Ampadu (M5.5)
⚪🟡 95% Calvert-Lewin (F6.0)
⚪🟡 95% Muharemović (D5.0)
⚪🟡 95% Rodon (D4.5)
⚪🟡 94% Bogle (D4.5)
⚪🟡 94% Justin (D4.5)
⚪🟡 92% H. Wilson (M6.5)

Liverpool
🔴 99% Van Dijk (D6.5)
🔴 96% Gravenberch (M6.0)
🔴 96% Isak (F9.0)
🔴 95% Frimpong (D5.5)
🔴 95% Kerkez (D5.5)
🔴 95% Szoboszlai (M7.0)
🔴 95% Wirtz (M7.5)
🔴 88% Gakpo (M7.0)

Manchester City
🔵⚪ 96% Haaland (F15.5)
🔵⚪ 96% Semenyo (M8.5)
🔵⚪ 94% Gvardiol (D5.5)
🔵⚪ 93% Foden (M7.0)

Manchester United
🔴⚫ 95% Bruno Fernandes (M12.0)
🔴⚫ 92% Mbeumo (M8.0)
🔴⚫ 86% Amad (M6.0)

Newcastle United
⚫⚪ 97% Thiaw (D5.0)
⚫⚪ 96% Hall (D5.0)
⚫⚪ 90% Dedić (D4.5)
⚫⚪ 86% Botman (D5.0)

Nottingham Forest
🔴��� 98% Milenković (D5.5)
🔴⚪ 96% Aina (D4.5)
🔴⚪ 96% Gibbs-White (M8.0)
🔴⚪ 94% Williams (D5.0)

Sunderland
🔴⚪ 98% Xhaka (M5.5)
🔴⚪ 96% Ballard (D5.0)
🔴⚪ 96% Hume (D4.5)
🔴⚪ 96% Reinildo (D4.5)
🔴⚪ 90% Sadiki (M5.0)
🔴⚪ 86% Brobbey (F6.0)

Tottenham Hotspur
⚪🔵 95% Tonali (M5.5)
⚪🔵 93% Gray (M5.0)
⚪🔵 88% Robertson (D4.5)
⚪🔵 88% Tel (M6.0)
⚪🔵 87% Richarlison (F6.0)
⚪🔵 86% Moore (M5.0)
⚪🔵 86% v. Hecke (D5.0)

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

@JonothanCorry You were right. Thankyou sir!

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Gameweek 1 Premier League Starting XI Predictions/Probabilities Update, 20th August Evening - A Thread: One Reply Per Team 👇

Updates from the press conferences, and some recalibrations from news stories. Bruno G has a thigh knock possibly making way for Lewis-Skelly in the XI. We also see Archie Gray slightly more likely to start ahead of Porro now. Even if Savinho and Marmoush move to Spurs, it seems very unlikely they'll start this weekend.

See my pinned post for the inputs to the model.

No New Additions this update!

Biggest Risers:

🔴⚪ 𝗟𝗲��𝗶𝘀-𝗦𝗸𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘆 (Arsenal) — up 20% to 42% · Bruno Guimarães is a thigh doubt Arteta would not clear
⚫⚪ 𝗥𝗮𝗺𝘀𝗲𝘆 (Newcastle) — up 16% to 60% · Recalibration: 419 pre-season minutes, the most in the squad
⚫⚪ 𝗧𝗼𝘂𝗿é (Newcastle) — up 14% to 42% · Recalibration: rated a favourite to start wide, not a reserve
🟤🔵 𝗦𝘂𝘇𝘂𝗸𝗶 (Aston Villa) — up 13% to 40% · The BBC’s season preview calls him Villa’s first-choice keeper
🔵⚪ 𝗗𝗶𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 (Everton) — up 10% to 66% · Recalibration: he started both of the last two friendlies, fit
⚪🔵 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘆 (Spurs) — up 10% to 66% · Recalibration: he captained the last friendly; Porro has no minutes

Biggest Fallers:

⚪🔵 𝗦𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗵𝗼 (Spurs) — down 31% to 9% · No agreement — and Spurs are not expected to field a new attacker
🔴⚪ 𝗕𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗼 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗺𝗮𝗿ã𝗲𝘀 (Arsenal) — down 27% to 60% · Arteta would not clear the thigh that took him off at half-time
⚫⚪ 𝗟𝗶𝘃𝗿𝗮𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗼 (Newcastle) — down 22% to 0% · Jaissle calls one partially-involved session far too early
⚫⚪ 𝗕𝗮𝗺𝗯𝗮 (Newcastle) — down 16% to 42% · Recalibration: 180 pre-season minutes against Ramsey’s 419
🔴⚪ 𝗔𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗿𝗮 (Sunderland) — down 14% to 0% · Le Bris gives a six-week ankle, and Sunderland are halfway through it
🟤🔵 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗸𝗶𝗻𝘀 (Aston Villa) — down 12% to 68% · Recalibration: no pre-season at all since the World Cup

"Underpicked Differentials": Hinshelwood and Tavernier are now nailed, so these two cheap midfielders replace two higher-owned 5.5M defenders - Milenkovic and Collins - on the card.

"Overpicked Traps": Stays the same.

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Tottenham Hotspur

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Gameweek 1 Final Premier League Starting XI Predictions/Probabilities Update, 21st August, 75 minutes before GW1 deadline - A Thread: One Reply Per Team 👇

⚪🔵Porro definitely out is the headline!

Updates from the press conferences today and final calibrations getting my predictions as useful as possible towards the extremes.

See my pinned post for the inputs to the model.

No New Additional players this update.

Biggest Risers:

🔵⚪ 𝗦𝗶𝗺𝗺𝘀 (Coventry) — up 41% to 86% · Haji Wright is out for up to twelve weeks with a quad
🔵⚪ 𝗢𝗻𝘆𝗲𝗸𝗮 (Coventry) — up 39% to 80% · Rudoni and Mason-Clark are both only just back
🔵 𝗥. 𝗝𝗮𝗺𝗲𝘀 (Chelsea) — up 31% to 86% · He captained the side and started the final friendly
⚪🔵 𝗚𝗿𝗮𝘆 (Spurs) — up 27% to 93% · Porro was left out of the squad, leaving Gray the only fit right-back
⚫⚪ 𝗪𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗮 (Newcastle) — up 27% to 80% · Correction: he STARTED the last friendly, at the ten behind Woltemade
🟤🔵 𝗠𝗮𝗮𝘁𝘀𝗲𝗻 (Aston Villa) — up 23% to 81% · He started the Super Cup and Ruggeri has not displaced him

Biggest Fallers:

⚪🔵 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼 (Spurs) — down 50% to 0% · De Zerbi named his squad on Friday and left him out of it
🔵 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗿í𝗮 (Chelsea) — down 45% to 18% · He came off the bench in the final friendly
🔴⚪ 𝗗𝗮𝗺𝘀𝗴𝗮𝗮𝗿𝗱 (Brentford) — down 30% to 14% · He came on with nineteen minutes left in the final friendly
🔵⚪ 𝗔𝘄𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘆𝗶 (Coventry) — down 29% to 14% · Lampard signed him this week and he is short of match fitness
🟤🔵 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝘁í𝗻𝗲𝘇 (Aston Villa) — down 26% to 32% · Emery says Martinez raised "the possibility of another challenge" while Suzuki was signed "for now not later"
🟤🔵 𝗥𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗶 (Aston Villa) — down 26% to 22% · Maatsen started the Super Cup and kept the shirt

"Underpicked Differentials": Thierno Barry becomes nailed, displacing Evanilson on the board!

"Overpicked Traps": Cunha creeps above 65% likely to start, making room for our old friend Rayan Cherki.

[FPL An Special One @FPLAnSpecialOne]

Sunderland