FPL King

FPL edge engine. Proprietary models, expected points, and fixture-adjusted projections built from deep stats, not vibes. Data-driven picks for managers who want

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@TheNumberGameX van Hecke

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Gonzalo (FUL, £6.1m) has 3.0 xG this season but just 1 goal — 2nd biggest underperformance in the PL. Elite managers own him at 17.9% vs 7.2% overall. They're backing the correction. GW7: HUL at home, diff 2, 5.20 xPts. Best budget FWD differential right now? #FPL

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

Bookies favour Brentford over Liverpool, who travel, on just 2 rest days after a CL game. Brentford have had 7 days' rest. Bookies actually favour BRE (40.4% win prob) and project MORE goals for them (1.38 vs 1.22). LIV CS prob just 25%. With Isak & Gakpo already out — avoid LIV assets. #FPL

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Wildcarding? Our engine's optimal squad over 6GW outlook:

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@FPLKarol Do you think Haaland will be rested against Ipswich?

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@athemvedfpl I am, unless he shows signs of fatigue in the second half tonight.

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What the top 1000 #FPL managers are doing:

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Full article: https://t.co/tehdVXSfVS

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

Looking past the Chelsea template this week.
Fixture concentration > FDR averages:

Savio (TOT) → 4 elite home fixtures (COV, CRY, IPS + more)
Tavernier (BOU) → set pieces + pens vs SUN
Mitoma → short-term vs Palace’s weak right flank

Strategic benching + Bench Boost squads can exploit this while others chase rotation risks.
#FPL #FPLCommunity

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

@FPLKarol Plus a few more

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

Four price changes tonight. 100% back tested. #FPL

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

TC on Haaland this week = high certainty play.
Hold only if you’re specifically targeting GW10 (Saka vs Hull), GW14 (Bruno vs Coventry) or GW16 (Haaland vs Hull).

Free Hit candidate later: GW9 looks messy for a lot of premium assets.

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

GW7 initial plan 🧵Brighton attackers still look excellent short-term, but the fixture swing after this week is real. #FPL #GW7

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

🛡️ Clean sheets & defence
Arsenal still top of the clean sheet model (only 0.68 xG conceded vs Leeds). Next four look very good → double/triple defence still preferred.
Spurs have been unlucky. Van Hecke (£4.9m) is excellent value with Coventry, Palace and Ipswich coming up.

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

📰 Team News to watch
• Szoboszlai (hamstring) — looking more serious. Liverpool midfield rotation risk.
• Foden back from suspension → pressure on Cherki’s minutes.
• Doku made a strong case with the cameo vs Liverpool (90% dribble success).
• Midweek CL games (especially City vs PSG) will give the best read on minutes.

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

🚫 Gvardiol also looks like a trap.
Surprise bench vs Liverpool + Nico O’Reilly now in the mix. Minutes projection has him likely starting vs Ipswich, but he’s no longer fixture-proof.

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

Maxim De Cuyper has exploded (£5.1m, multiple double-digit hauls). Attacking threat is real, but:
• GW8 Liverpool (A) + GW9 Man City (A) are brutal
• Mitoma’s return = minute risk

If you can bench him those two weeks, fine. Otherwise this isn’t the optimal entry point.

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

Bruno has only returned once so far and owners are frustrated.
Model says only sell if you specifically need the funds. His xGI vs Leeds is still competitive and Bournemouth (H) follows.
Sideways moves to Palmer are usually unnecessary unless the money is required elsewhere.

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

🛒 Priority Buys
• Pascal Gross (£6.0m) — 8 goal involvements in 6. Set pieces + central role. Still a season keeper even through the tough fixtures coming.
• Tavernier (£6.1m) — Sunderland (H) next + likely pens while Kluivert is out. Strong underlying numbers.

Solanke (hamstring) needs monitoring — may be short-term ⚠️

[FPL King @FPLKingPro]

👑 The Armband
Haaland (IPS H) is the overwhelming favourite — xPts ~8.8.
Even with City’s midweek CL vs PSG, he’s robust enough and the fixture is too good to ignore. TC now for certainty rather than risking later (e.g. GW16 vs Hull) when fitness isn’t guaranteed.
Differential: Saka vs Nott’m Forest looks interesting (anytime ~35%). Not the highest ceiling but a viable alternative if you’re avoiding the pile-on.