FPL Guru

⚽ FPL Content
📊 Analytics & Decision Making
🏆 Top 17k Finish, 25/26
💚 Process over Results

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

🏆 Top 17k Overall | 2025/2026

Starting this account to share the process behind my decisions, the wins, the mistakes, and everything in between.

📊 Analytics 📈 EV & EO 🎯 Differentials ⚽ GW Thoughts

Process > Outcome.

#FPL

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

Nice one and yes Gross offers many routes to points and enables the rest of the team at 5.5m. He likely has pens, set pieces and really good xMins projections. Anderson, at City offers cheap way into that City mid options for the first 3. He'll carry on with his DCs from last szn and is projected to be more involved in that City attack, he has great EV!

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

Following on from my last post about keeping Free Hit in my back pocket, this is the draft I'm currently landing on...

BB1 → WC4

The more I've tinkered, the more this structure has grown on me.

The goal is still the same: maximise EV in GW1 while we have unlimited transfers, then use the Wildcard when this structure naturally starts to lose value rather than forcing transfers.

Starting with Haaland gives me three strong opening fixtures, including Coventry (H) in GW3, while also leaving the door open for a potential Triple Captain if projections still justify it.

Triple United attacks Hull (A) and Ipswich (H), with Bruno covering captaincy in GW1 and GW2 before the fixture swing.

I'm also happy doubling on Arsenal defence. With Saliba expected to miss the opening part of the season, Mosquera currently looks like a great way of unlocking that second Arsenal slot alongside Raya.

Triple Sunderland is simply a play on fixtures. Ipswich (A) and Fulham (H) are excellent to target before Arsenal (H) and Man City (A) in GW4-5 make WC4 a very natural exit point.

One thing I also like about this route is that I'm not boxed into a GW4 Wildcard.

By then I'll have 3 FTs banked, so if the team is performing well I can simply use those transfers to pivot into the next fixture swing instead.

Chelsea have a great run from GW4 (Hull, Brentford, Bournemouth) while Arsenal's fixtures also stay attractive (Sunderland, Brighton, Leeds, Nottingham Forest, Everton over the following weeks). So the Wildcard becomes an option rather than a necessity.

There are still plenty of flexible spots too. Le Fée could easily become Ndiaye if he stays, and Ballard could become Vuskovic if it becomes clear he's first choice. That would let me move away from triple Sunderland into a double Sunderland + Everton or double Brighton structure if it looks stronger by the deadline.

Still plenty of tinkering left, but this is probably my favourite draft so far.

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@LwS_Sports Thank you! 🙏🏼😁

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FPL_White @Hamza07Akram I have yes, going no Haaland means I would likely WC2. This will allow me to treat GW1 like a FH BB1. Outside of that not really, with the prime GW3 fixrure looming and me not wanting to use my FH early. I can't go without the 🤖 for too long.

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@Heis_Caesar Great draft!

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FPLmasterm1nd 🙏🏼🙏🏼

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FPLByakko 🙌🏽💚

[Brad @BradMayorFPL]

I think an early wildcard is a better play this season than usual

With a load new managers, there will be so much to learn over the first couple of weeks

In turn, this makes an early bench boost more attractive too

Safe picks with good fixtures on BB1/BB2 then WC4 with 3 weeks worth of info and downgrade the bench

It’s a popular strategy for good reason

[Tom Hadley FPL @FPL_TomHadley]

It often feels like we feel the need to try something drastically different in this game to hit those top ranks.

But I think back to my best ever finish and wanted to demonstrate how the gains came from simple means.

Started with the two big premiums (Haaland and Salah) and simply captained one of those two every week.

Only included 2 unknown players in my GW1 team (new signings). The rest of the team was proven players and assets in FPL.

Got to rank 155th by GW5, only making 3 transfers, with each one being a success the week I bought them and had good 2-3 week fixture runs.

Nothing here was too differential, but because the GW1 team was full of seemingly value picks on paper (even if a lot were reasonably well owned), that combination of players itself was differential.

I wildcarded early (GW7) basically to keep momentum and it worked (I hit top 100 by GW13 and stayed there right up until the end of the season).

The wildcard team wasn’t anything fancy either, it was simply a collection of players that either seemed great value after the first weeks, or started the season really well - but getting there early was the crucial differential!

Most people ended up buying a host of those WC players a few weeks later!

It did include an inspired Watkins inclusion mind you, hitting 23 points vs Brighton that very week 😆

Of course literally everything went right early on and you need a hell of a lot of luck to fly up the ranks like that - plus we only had the old chips back then.

BB1 this year might be boring, but it also might end up the exact right way to play it (even with me reluctant to do so).

We’re all probably going to TC Haaland at home to a promoted side too. But the combination of everything here could work out to be a big differential.

And going off that season, it seems like an early WC with a couple of good short term transfers before it can be extremely powerful!

You may learn absolutely nothing from this post, but I just wanted to demonstrate how possible it is to climb ranks without actually trying to be overly different!

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FplScript @FPL__Fran @FPLSchaden RIP 🕊

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

One thing I've changed my mind on after more tinkering...

I'm no longer planning around an early Free Hit.

As much as I trust analytics, I don't think it should be treated as the absolute truth. It's primarily built around the information we have today, but football rarely plays out exactly as expected.

Blanks, postponements, fixture changes, injuries... even if they're unlikely, they happen.

I'd rather keep my Free Hit in my back pocket than commit it months in advance.

It's the same reason I still like BB1. It may not end up being the highest EV Bench Boost week in the first 19 GWs, but it's the only week where we have unlimited transfers and can optimise all 15 players right up until the deadline.

For me, playing well isn't just about chasing the highest projected EV. It's about balancing EV with flexibility and giving yourself options when the unexpected inevitably happens.

Still plenty of time left, but that's where my thinking is currently.

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@DonieFpl @fplreview If WC3FH4, I'll be avoiding Chelsea in the WC. The thinking is if Chelsea start firing then it'll be easy to transfer in their players compared to Bruno, Haaland and Gab as their most expensive in their respective position. It's easier to pivot to CHE/LIV who are cheaper.

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

Happy @fplreview launch day! 🎉

After spending a few hours on Review today, this is where I'm currently landing:

✅ BB1 → WC3 → FH4

The main driver for me is captaincy.

BB1 lets me maximise EV across all 15 players while taking advantage of unlimited transfers without Haaland. It also gives me a clear captaincy route with Bruno in GW1 and GW2, which I'm really happy with.

The plan would then be to Wildcard in GW3 just post the transfer market deadline, bringing Haaland in for the first time ahead of Coventry (H), while building a squad I'd be happy to hold through the long international break.

I know the usual advice is to Wildcard after the long break, but I'm happy to take that risk if it means I can set myself up with robust long-term picks and then navigate any issues with free transfers afterwards.

Then Free Hit in GW4 to attack Chelsea vs Hull (H), where Palmer currently stands out as the best captaincy option that week.

One thing I keep coming back to is how difficult it feels to go without Bruno or Haaland for too long. Looking at the opening weeks, they seem to alternate as the standout captaincy options more often than not, so I'd rather rotate (C) into them by having both in my squad rater than commit to fading either for an extended period.

Arsenal are another side I'm keen to move towards as their fixtures improve, particularly in defence.

Plenty of tinkering left to do, but these are my initial thoughts after today's Review launch. Interested to hear where everyone else is landing. 🤔

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

Happy @fplreview launch day! 🎉

After spending a few hours on Review today, this is where I'm currently landing:

✅ BB1 → WC3 → FH4

The main driver for me is captaincy.

BB1 lets me maximise EV across all 15 players while taking advantage of unlimited transfers without Haaland. It also gives me a clear captaincy route with Bruno in GW1 and GW2, which I'm really happy with.

The plan would then be to Wildcard in GW3 just post the transfer market deadline, bringing Haaland in for the first time ahead of Coventry (H), while building a squad I'd be happy to hold through the long international break.

I know the usual advice is to Wildcard after the long break, but I'm happy to take that risk if it means I can set myself up with robust long-term picks and then navigate any issues with free transfers afterwards.

Then Free Hit in GW4 to attack Chelsea vs Hull (H), where Palmer currently stands out as the best captaincy option that week.

One thing I keep coming back to is how difficult it feels to go without Bruno or Haaland for too long. Looking at the opening weeks, they seem to alternate as the standout captaincy options more often than not, so I'd rather rotate (C) into them by having both in my squad rater than commit to fading either for an extended period.

Arsenal are another side I'm keen to move towards as their fixtures improve, particularly in defence.

Plenty of tinkering left to do, but these are my initial thoughts after today's Review launch. Interested to hear where everyone else is landing. 🤔

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FPL_Brandon 🔥

[Brandon @FPL_Brandon]

A strategy I haven’t seen anyone talking about…and one I’m seriously considering:

BB1 → WC2.

It sounds mad at first, but hear me out:

• You effectively combine a Free Hit and Bench Boost by optimising all 15 players for GW1, then Wildcarding immediately afterwards.

• The transfer market usually goes crazy after GW1. With transparent price changes now built into the app, there could be even more opportunity to build team value.

• Taking risks is generally better at the start of the season because you have the most time to recover.

• You can attack the best GW1 fixtures: triple Arsenal vs COV (H), triple Man United vs HUL (A), Sunderland vs IPS (A), MGW vs LEE (H).

• Go Haaland-less for just GW1 (when his minutes could be managed), then bring him in on WC2 alongside triple Liverpool. With Bench Boost out of the way, you can maximise your budget in the starting XI.

• Assuming you build a solid Wildcard team, you’re guaranteed to keep your Free Hit for later in the season.

• GW1 arguably provides the biggest single information gain of the opening weeks.

Cons:
• You’re Wildcarding after just one Gameweek of information.
• The transfer window is still open.
• No AFCON-related transfers later in the season to help justify such early heavy chip usage.
• A Haaland injury or reduced minutes in GW1 could completely change the equation.

Interested to hear people’s thoughts. My mind is completely open on this.

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FplSatisfaction @fplreview 😂💚

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@zimo619 @fplreview I actually agree. The main reason isn't trying to learn loads in one extra week, it's that I'm comfortable with my GW2 team, so there's no urgency to WC2.

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@FPL_Brandon @fplreview ^🐐

[FPL Guru @FPL___Guru]

@mush_ashique @fplreview 🙌🏽