@Alhambralnvest People “feel” acceleration, not velocity. It’s hard to stay sober in the face of such incredible shifts in sentiment. The best way is to imagine the small sample space ABOVE those optimistic CBO projections. VERY low margin for error.
It's a retail investor trading orgy.
The number of accounts, trading activity, and options speculation has never been higher among the bored-at-home-wearing-sweatpants crowd.
@TenYearNote So on aggregate, the CRA system is working as intended. Also is evidence that differing debt-carrying costs are creating winners and losers
Sometimes I feel they leak updates on the US-China negotiations that reverse course multiple times purely for the drama. I'm surprised the market still takes the bait at this point, but I guess the economic implications are too clear and great to ignore
Let's see if the Australian trade balance data later tonight can shake loose the $AUDUSD. I still think it would be most effective if we could get a shove towards 'path of least resistance'
What has changed in the last 24 hours
1) China turns down request to sign deal in Brazil
2) China turns down request to sign deal in Iowa
3) Phase 1 pushed to dec at earliest
4) Usd seasonal demand across the board , USDCNH +200 points
5) Hawkish rhetoric from Chinese media
There is a lot of chatter of USD rallying if Fed moves to pause(after today's cut), there is less than 25% chance of Dec cut priced in at the moment. The first full cut is priced in for next year only. So we do not buy into this narrative.
We have compiled data from a bunch of retail brokers, seems like AUD longs (for retail) are at the lowest since the 2nd week of September and retail has been adding shorts since last week.