Rates and oil split on Tuesday
WTI: −3.8% at $89.09
30Y: 5.62% intraday, highest since June 2002
2s30s: 6bp steeper in one session
Odds of a 2nd hike by Dec: 40.9%, from 58.7%
PCE at 8:30am ET. $MU after the close.
Which gives first, yields or crude? https://t.co/6q6xKaWIqk
The median stock fell 5.8%. The blue dots are the 20 largest names. At equal weight they rose 4.9%. The other 483 fell 5.5%.
$META, $AMD, $INTC and $MU are blue dots on the right. The gray cloud is the list, and most of it sits to the left of the index. 22% of the names fell more than 10%. 4% rose more than 10%.
$VIX is still moving with $SPX. It is moving less than it usually does.
A 1% decline in the index has been worth 1.25 VIX points over the last 21 sessions, through 25 Sep. Since July 2025 the usual decline has been worth 1.58.
This is why.
$SPX is down 0.6% since the 27 Aug close. $RSP is down 5.3%.
The index is the quiet book which $VIX is priced off of. The move has been in single names.
$MU $NBIS $SOXX $PLTR MICHAEL BURRY ADDS TO SHORTS IN $MU, $NBIS, $SOXX AND $PLTR Burry says the AI-driven memory shortage could unwind within two years as production catches up, returning the sector to its boom-and-bust cycle. - https://t.co/sK6KLpNoJI
Banks sold off Tuesday. Their options books grew.
$SCHW −6.0% | open interest +7.9%
$WFC −3.9% | +7.7%
$JPM −3.4% | +7.6%
A typical day for each: under 2%.
$XLF added 253,000 contracts.
Calls and puts both. New positions, both sides.
Hedges, or someone leaning on the bounce?