fabonacci

13 years of trading autism.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Total US crude oil and petroleum product exports rose to a record 12.9 million barrels per day last week.

Total US oil exports have surged +2.5 million barrels per day since the Iran War began.

US oil product exports alone surged to 8.1 million barrels per day, the highest on record.

Crude oil and petroleum product exports have DOUBLED since January 2022.

This comes as Asian and European nations scramble to secure alternative supply following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose +1.9 million barrels, to 465.7 million barrels, the highest since 2023.

World demand for American oil is skyrocketing.

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

@realMaalouf The guy in behind is just jogging :)))

[The Market Mind @Market_Mind_]

World’s Largest Oil Chokepoints 🛢

1. 🇲🇾🇸🇬 Strait of Malacca - 23.2 Mn B/D
2. 🇴🇲🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz - 20.9 Mn B/D
3. 🇿🇦 Cape of Good Hope - 9.1 Mn B/D
4. 🇩🇰 Danish Straits - 4.9 Mn B/D
5. 🇪🇬 Suez Canal - 4.9 Mn B/D
6. 🇾🇪🇩🇯 Bab El-Mandeb - 4.2 Mn B/D
7. 🇹🇷 Turkish Straits - 3.7 Mn B/D
8. 🇵🇦 Panama Canal - 2.3 Mn B/D

Note: Average daily transit measured in million barrels per day; total global oil flow ~80 Mn B/D

[Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli]

7.91 million barrels a day

US oil product exports just hit an all-time record.
Up 23% yoy

Not crude... Products.

⛽ Gasoline +69 kb/d
✈️ Jet fuel +71 kb/d
🔵 Propane +89 kb/d
🚛 Distillate +106 kb/d

The world didn't just need American crude.
It needed American refineries.

Hormuz blockaded.
And the US is shipping everything crude, gas, jet fuel, diesel at record pace.
This is what energy dominance looks like in practice.

Full article here:
https://t.co/oBY1MSCmpW

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

do not forget how CDS works

[Ninja @Ninjascalp]

study the quantum physics of ETF outflows/inflows.

it's truly amazing.

$BTC

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

Polarizing inside

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Only actions matter, not words. The actions: Germans who stand for separation of monetary and fiscal policies (Jens Weidmann, Axel Weber, Jürgen Starck) left the ECB due to its drift into fiscal support for high-debt countries. The ECB is losing Germany...
https://t.co/GypDIAOXiP

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

I have been waiting for these opportunity for a long time. Be ready and take your position right. There wasn’t panic sell so far. #spy #Crypto

[SwanDesk @SwanDesk]

BREAKING: Michael Burry warns Bitcoin’s decline will wipe out significant value for companies holding large amounts on their balance sheet.

He says BTC has failed as a safe haven like gold and behaves more like a volatile stock tied to the S&P 500. Aggressive holders face bankruptcy risk as it continues to fall, potentially triggering broader market turmoil.

[Investing.com @Investingcom]

*JAPAN 10-YEAR YIELD RISES TO 2.27%, HIGHEST SINCE 1999

🇯🇵🇯🇵

[Vesper @vesperdigital]

Dan Peña has officially become my favourite Billionaire!

This is the most brutal smackdown of any Climate Change Zombie I have ever witnessed!

Dan is the new Pulp Fiction version of Samuel L Jackson!

🤣🤣🤣

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

Team is perfect… poker player knows how it works xD ….Energy commodity trading specialist from Morgan Stanley and experienced Texas Hold'em player with a strong background in international economics and data analytics. Known for his efficiency in execution and maverick approach to optimization, Albert brings new school thoughts and old-fashioned grit to Coverd.

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

...and 2 long now :)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: 717 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the most in 15 years.

This is now higher than every full-year total since 2010.

This also marks the 3rd consecutive annual increase and a +93% jump since 2022.

In November alone, 62 large firms filed for bankruptcy, after 68 and 66 in October and September.

US bankruptcies this year are now running +30% above the 2011-2024 annual average.

Corporate bankruptcies are surging outside of the AI trade.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO

Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you.

Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. That era ended this morning.

Here’s What Just Happened

Core inflation is running at 3.0%. Government bond yields are spiking to levels not seen since 1999. China just conducted its 25th military incursion near Japanese waters this year. Japan is now forced to spend 2% of GDP on defense … nearly 9 trillion yen annually.

The Bank of Japan is trapped between two impossible choices: raise rates and trigger a debt collapse, or keep rates low and watch inflation destroy savings. They chose door number two.

Why You Should Care

Every major bank, hedge fund, and institution on Earth has borrowed yen at cheap rates and invested it elsewhere for 30 years. This “carry trade” could be worth anywhere from $350 billion to $4 trillion. Nobody knows the real number because it’s hidden in derivatives.

When Japan’s system breaks, this money unwinds. Fast.

The last time we saw a preview … July 2024 … the Nikkei dropped 12.4% in a single day. The Nasdaq fell 13%. That was a small tremor. The earthquake is coming.

The Math Is Simple!

Japan’s government pays interest on $9 trillion in debt. Every 0.5% increase in rates costs them $45 billion annually. At current yields, debt service will consume 10% of all tax revenue. That’s the death spiral threshold.

The yen is trading at 157 to the dollar. If it strengthens to 152, the entire carry trade becomes unprofitable. Unwinding begins. Emerging market currencies could drop 10-15%. The Nasdaq could fall 12-20% as funds are forced to sell.

What Happens Next

December 18-19, the Bank of Japan meets. Markets are pricing 51% odds they raise rates another 0.25%. If they do, volatility explodes. If they don’t, inflation accelerates and the problem gets worse.

There is no way out. Japan’s fiscal dominance is now permanent. They must keep the yen weak to service their debt. This means the free money that powered global markets since 1990 is ending.

The Bottom Line

Interest rates worldwide are going up 0.5-1.0% permanently. Not because of inflation. Because the world’s largest creditor nation can no longer subsidize global growth.

Your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card … all repricing higher. Stock valuations built on cheap money … all compressing. The everything bubble … all deflating.

This is not a recession. This is a regime change. The largest liquidity engine in financial history just seized up, and most people won’t understand what happened until their portfolios are down 30%.

Tokyo broke the world today. You’ll feel it tomorrow.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Read the full data driven deep dive article -

https://t.co/enhJeYNeo1

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

@MTradingX @MichaelPatak @toritrades 😀😀😀

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Current situation:

1. Stocks are rising like the US economy is soaring

2. Oil prices are falling like we are entering a recession

3. Gold is rising like the Fed is cutting rates into inflation

4. Bitcoin is falling like Fed rate cuts are postponed

5. Home prices are rising like more rate cuts are coming

6. Treasury yields are rising like stagflation has arrived

The market is entering a new era of monetary policy.

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

@MTradingX not for you xD....

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

Lovely trading day after #FED rate cut

#TradingTips

[fabonacci @Fabonacci17]

@Globalflows Would I ask for a link to download pdf?