Scott Littlehale

Construction labor research-analyst since 2003 (@NorCalCarpU)
Trying to tweet less, research/strategize/act/(sleep?) more.
@slittlehale.bsky.social

[Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ]

Decision Desk HQ projects Scott Wiener wins the CA US House 11 Primary

#DecisionMade: 11:31 PM EDT

[Gabriel Zucman @gabriel_zucman]

More broadly, if one looks at the 400 wealthiest Americans, our research shows the billionaires tend to have low individual income tax rates.

Why?

Simply put, the ultra-wealthy can easily structure their wealth so that this wealth generates little – sometimes even no – taxable income. Hence little or no income tax owed.

https://t.co/l5oGMTLBEM

[Gabriel Zucman @gabriel_zucman]

Your claim that the top 1% pays 40% of taxes and the bottom 50% only 3% is misleading:

It captures just one tax – the federal income tax – and ignores all the rest: payroll taxes, state income taxes, sales taxes, excise duties, etc., many of which are regressive.

[North Coast States Carpenters Union @NCSCarpenters]

The NCSCU is proud to support Tom Steyer for Governor of California.

“As Governor, Tom Steyer won’t be beholden to special interests,” Pete Rodriguez, Vice President of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters said. “Union carpenters know what it means to put in long hours and still struggle to afford a roof over our heads.”

“Tom respects and values the hard work and dignity that comes with earning a living with your hands,” Rodriguez added. “He understands that strong unions and strong working families-built California’s middle class. We need leadership willing to stand up, make tough decisions, and fight for the people who build this state every single day. It was hardworking men and women, backed by bold leadership and investment in America’s workforce, that helped lift this country out of the Great Depression — and that’s the kind of fight and vision we need again today. That’s why we’re supporting Tom Steyer for Governor.”

#NorthCoastStatesCarpentersUnion #CarpenterUnionPower

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

Why is retention bad absent a union?
1) Working conditions aren't family friendly
2) There isn't a compensating income differential!
* There is a household income "penalty" for families with young children.
** That penalty has grown, not shrunk, over time.

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

@kimmaicutler But he missed another critical tradeoff. The real puzzle isn't partisan, it's about having a strategy for sustained housing production growth.
https://t.co/TaWaFnNjJa

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

My fundamental critique of @ezraklein's framing of the housing construction/labor issue is that it ignores the "skilled construction labor shortage" constraint I hear contractors and developers complain about constantly.
Status quo labor standards perpetuate the capacity problem

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

@GhostofEdie @ezraklein TBS, there's variation across sub-markets & non-union employers. The pictures I posted are CA avgs, showing that generally there aren't good "compensating" compensation differentials for the downsides of construction work relative to work w/less arduous, dangerous demands.

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

My fundamental critique of @ezraklein's framing of the housing construction/labor issue is that it ignores the "skilled construction labor shortage" constraint I hear contractors and developers complain about constantly.
Status quo labor standards perpetuate the capacity problem

[Ezra Klein @ezraklein]

Here's @XavierBecerra on how he'd balance his pledge to cut California's home construction costs against the parts of his plan that would appear to raise them:

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

Why is retention bad absent a union?
1) Working conditions aren't family friendly
2) There isn't a compensating income differential!
* There is a household income "penalty" for families with young children.
** That penalty has grown, not shrunk, over time.

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

Source & methods note:
To generate "survival schedules" of California carpenters I fed an LLM:
1) union: the schedule of pension plan participants' years of credited service (a mandatory annual report).
2) non-union: Census Bureau J2J, QWI, and ACS data.
This is a 1st, rough-cut.

[Roosevelt Institute @rooseveltinst]

The "abundance agenda" aims to solve our supply crises, but often ignores a critical factor: worker power.

In our new report, Kate Andrias & @awh argue for "Democratic Abundance"—a vision where workers shape the future they’re building.🏗️💪

https://t.co/neNd42IYi0

[Arin Dube @arindube]

OK, Seattle, San Francisco, LA peeps. I'm trying to plan out book talks on the West Coast in June. DM or email me if your organization would be interested in helping arrange something.

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

@DKThomp @hanlonbt In 1977 California Carpenters Unions warned about anti-growth policies & regs (2019 thread).
The growth coalition didn't hold, developer-builders deunionized & restrictions endured. Now we hear cries re labor shortages, as construction workers' living conditions lag behind, smh.

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

@shelbygrad Link to the PDF of the California Policy Lab report that was the basis of the LA Times story: https://t.co/BQZ9q1sCcW

[Shelby Grad @shelbygrad]

People who leave California for other states improve their financial situation and are much more likely to buy a home, a landmark 10-year datat analysis shows. The results speak to affordability crisis so stark one expert says: It's just sad https://t.co/ci9rrg960N

[Elizabeth Pancotti @ENPancotti]

Beneficiaries of Trump’s tax law: bankers who can use the juiced tax refunds to build a sauna in their backyards.

[Ruijiang Gao @ruijianggao]

Takeaway for social scientists the AI era:
1️⃣ Never trust a single AI estimate.
2️⃣ Use Multiverse Analysis: run many agents to see the full range of plausible results.
3️⃣ AI NSE may serve as a "lower bound" for human NSE.

[Jeremy Horpedahl 🥚📉 @jmhorp]

Pop quiz: What US MSA has the highest 10th percentile wage, adjusted for cost-of-living using the BEA RPP?

[Scott Littlehale @FactChecker23]

@jmhorp I love this. did you use the OEWS?
I ran ACS median annual full-time, year-round civilian earnings by MSA a year or so ago. Will find and post later....
for now, eager to see the answer...

[Josh Eidelson @josheidelson]

Scoop: Trump Labor Dept. "will give greater scrutiny to employers whose market power permits them to dominate their respective labor markets in ways that can facilitate employment-law violations," labor solicitor Jonathan Berry told staff in a memo today https://t.co/Ctlb1BI9Qx