Why a high win rate isnt the holy grail?
Ok nothing new here but just sharing from my own experience:
In 2018, when I first started trading with leverage, I made the same mistake many new traders make, which is ultimately trying to chase a high win rate and if it wasnt a high win rate, it wasnt good enough.
A few losses would throw me off my process leading to over-leveraging, adjust entries on the fly, taking unplanned trades or skipping planned trades - just to name a few.
What's key to understand is that profitability isn’t about avoiding losses. It’s about expectancy.
Consider a simple model:
Account size: $100,000
Risk per trade: 1% ($1,000)
Win rate: 45% (45 wins, 55 losses)
Reward/Risk: +2R on wins, -1R on losses
Outcome after 100 trades: $135,000 (+35%)
Expectancy: +0.35R per trade
Even with a win rate below 50%, this system has positive expectancy, carries edge, and produces profits.
It isn’t flawless, yet there is so much room for improvement with a focus on trade selection, timing, and risk allocation, applying a better filter to select A+ trades and sizing up on them.
But the foundation is solid. Journaling and reviewing are what transform a basic edge into a sharper, more consistent one over time.
The math is simple. The real challenge is staying the course long enough to let it play out.
Most aspiring traders never make it to 100 trades because they are rattled by variance, size up too quickly, or abandon their process after a drawdown and eventually blow up, been there and done it many times in 2018-2019.
I would get to around 30-40 trades before taking a huge loss (-50% drawdown or completely blowing out) - hence of my "trading goals" was just to make it through to 100 trades, amongst many goals at that time.
The true edge isn’t just in the numbers, it’s in the discipline to stick to the process and the patience to refine it (the real work away from staring at the screen all day). That’s what separates compounding from blowing up.
Its a tough game to crack, let the numbers show you the way. Dont think about the end goal but the process that will help you get there.
One of the greatest mysteries in my life is why dysfunctional people treat strangers infinitely better than family.
My mother would be cruel to me, but super-nice to a waiter.
She would be yelling at me, but then answer a phone call sooo nicely.
Why do people do that?
I genuinely think the best way to trade is simply doing nothing 99% of the time and then sizing big once something crazy happens, take profit after a decent sized move even if you only capture half of the entire thing and continue doing nothing again
1 trade a year kind of thing
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Sell EVERYTHING when:
- Coinbase is #1 on the app store
- You see crypto news on instagram
- Random tiktokers are trading memecoins
- Everyone around you is speaking about crypto (in grocery stores, at the gym, etc.)
- People are texting you for advice
- Everyone is making money
The market will top when these signs align
The Driller Bot from #Transformers Dark of the Moon was the most complex asset ILM had done for Transformers by that point. It had 70,000 individual parts, over 7x more than Optimus Prime.
This sequence where it is crushing the skyscraper took 288 hours per frame to render with all of the reflections and simulations.
During the last weekend, ILM used their entire render farm, amounting to 200,000 rendering hours per day which is 22.8 years of rendering time in 24 hours.
talking to close minded people is probably the most irritating thing in the world 😂 they can’t comprehend anything outside of what they know or think is right.