FairPredicts

Prediction markets are growing fast. The companies behind them should be growing responsibly. We're watching.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

If Kalshi’s not the House, why do they win when you lose?

[CNBC @CNBC]

Prediction markets tied to clinical trials and drug approvals draw lawmakers' ire https://t.co/E4CEeb7hvA

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

Full Story: https://t.co/uUR3uQYDK6

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

NEW DEVELOPMENT: @Sen_Alsobrooks and Senator @RonWyden sent a letter to HHS, pressing the department to mitigate the risks from Kalshi’s clinical trial betting markets:

“Allowing individuals to bet on the success of these trials and drugs undermines the scientific process, creates perverse incentives for researchers, harms trial participants, and could lead to dangerous medical outcomes for untold numbers of Americans.”

FairPredicts has been sounding the alarm since July. Now the U.S. Senate is asking the same question.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

A father whose 12-year-old son is fighting cancer is calling out @Kalshi's new clinical trial betting markets:

"The possibility that somebody out there might be wagering against my son, hoping that the treatment fails so they can make money, is enraging. How is this not just another type of 'death market'?"

Families are praying for a cure. Kalshi is profiting.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

🚨 Kalshi is now letting people bet on cancer drug trials and FDA approvals.

A 43 year old pancreatic cancer patient exploring clinical trial options criticized the move, saying "We're literally trying to stay alive. It's not a game."

Another lung cancer patient said "This is about who will live and who will die."

Earlier this year, Kalshi ran a paid ad campaign claiming “We don't offer death markets”.

Americans deserve to know where that line is.

Source: NYT

[POLITICO @politico]

Wall Street regulator poised to bring charges against prediction market giant Kalshi https://t.co/GZTOtbp12U

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

🚨 Kalshi's takers LOST $44.6 MILLION trading on the midterm elections.

On the flip side, market makers made $34.9 MILLION IN PROFIT.

We've been saying this since our launch day: Kalshi telling the public "we are not the house" and "bet against your neighbor" is misleading everyday Americans.

When you trade on Kalshi, you're often NOT trading against your neighbor. You're trading against institutional market makers like Susquehanna and Jump Trading.

The midterm numbers prove it. READ MORE 👇

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

https://t.co/k08es71OjJ

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

🚨 Kalshi's takers LOST $44.6 MILLION trading on the midterm elections.

On the flip side, market makers made $34.9 MILLION IN PROFIT.

We've been saying this since our launch day: Kalshi telling the public "we are not the house" and "bet against your neighbor" is misleading everyday Americans.

When you trade on Kalshi, you're often NOT trading against your neighbor. You're trading against institutional market makers like Susquehanna and Jump Trading.

The midterm numbers prove it. READ MORE 👇

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

NEW: Per Politico, the CFTC has warned Kalshi that charges could be imminent.

The question: did Kalshi fail to properly notify regulators about dozens of new products?

This follows months of scrutiny from Congress about Kalshi’s insider trading practices.

NOW is the time to hold prediction market companies ACCOUNTABLE.

[POLITICO @politico]

Wall Street regulator poised to bring charges against prediction market giant Kalshi https://t.co/GZTOtbp12U

[Zach Warmbrodt @Zachary]

NEWS: The CFTC has warned Kalshi of potential charges.

The agency is investigating whether the company failed to properly notify regulators about dozens of new products.

@declanharty

https://t.co/xACWRu1XXJ

[Bobby Allyn @BobbyAllyn]

“We’re extremely early,” says Ilia Saddler, a former reality TV producer and current content creator. “Right now, the industry is still figuring out whether prediction markets are an engagement opportunity, a production risk or some combination of both.”

https://t.co/Q02ae05xuI

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

🚨Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the "elites" will never love Kalshi because "there's no gatekeepers" and it's "millions of American people putting money where their mouth is."

Kalshi's backers include Morgan Stanley, Sequoia Capital, Coatue Management, Andreessen Horowitz, and more. Its first major market maker was Susquehanna International Group, a Wall Street trading giant.

The elites aren't attacking Kalshi. They own it.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

New from Bloomberg:

"Survivor host Jeff Probst sharply criticized Polymarket and Kalshi, telling Variety the companies are “incentivizing people to lie, cheat and steal to get ahead” and called for regulation."
https://t.co/ceaaZCRKKR

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

🚨Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the "elites" will never love Kalshi because "there's no gatekeepers" and it's "millions of American people putting money where their mouth is."

Kalshi's backers include Morgan Stanley, Sequoia Capital, Coatue Management, Andreessen Horowitz, and more. Its first major market maker was Susquehanna International Group, a Wall Street trading giant.

The elites aren't attacking Kalshi. They own it.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

"Researchers at Vanderbilt University said this week that they had identified suspicious prediction market activity before the releases of two recent New York Times/Siena polls." ⤵️
https://t.co/1XVrDjQjE5

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

Kalshi and Polymarket have to answer for the gap between what they say and what they do.

Insider trading. Deceptive advertising. Fake trade slips. And more.

FairPredicts has documented it since day one. We look forward to Congress using its oversight power to demand the documents, the data, and the answers these two companies have avoided.

Accountability is overdue.

[Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGAL]

'Now is the time': Victorious Democrats vow to rein in prediction markets

Via @declanharty https://t.co/QoKVS1liku

[Declan Harty @declanharty]

New: It was the tale of two elections for prediction markets.

Kalshi and Polymarket foretold Democrats’ sweeping victories — and well before much of the pundit class. But the blue wave could also mark the beginning of an uncomfortable new era of scrutiny. https://t.co/Ix1gjA9XRW

[Daniel Wallach @WALLACHLEGAL]

🚨 BREAKING: NY state judge orders Kalshi to show cause why it should not be compelled to comply with AG Letitia James’s investigative subpoena targeting influencer promotions, alleged fake winning trades, and Kalshi’s market-making practices.

Hearing set for Dec. 17.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

🚨Last week on Patrick Bet-David’s podcast, Kalshi's CEO said the "beauty of Kalshi" is that "I don't make money off the people that are like losing money and getting addicted."

Really?

Kalshi has made an estimated $2+ BILLION in fees this year.

Kalshi's own filing says Kalshi Trading LLC was "established as a profit-making enterprise" that trades on its own exchange.

[FairPredicts @FairPredicts]

@NewYorkStateAG

[Dustin Gouker @DustinGouker]

Kalshi is advertising that you should bet on sports to pay your restaurant bill.