Joe Fan

[流氓兔🐰 @LiumangtuCrypto]

重磅：Claude现在可以像顶级咨询公司一样进行股市研究（完全免费）。

以下是10个Claude提示词，可替代年薪10万美元的股票分析师（收藏备用）

[鸟哥 | 蓝鸟会🕊️ @NFTCPS]

白嫖党注意了！这波电子书资源我帮你全整合好了，不收藏你会后悔的

说真的，很多人找电子书还在一个个网站瞎碰，浪费时间不说，还经常扑空。我直接把靠谱的入口全给你列出来，收好不谢。

1⃣ Z-Library中文站——老大哥级别的存在，资源量没得说，中文版入口更顺手
2⃣ https://t.co/u3rHFoqXBo——稳定性强，不容易挂，日常找书首选
3⃣ Anna's Archive——镜像库里的巨无霸，冷门书都能翻到，不信你试试
4⃣ https://t.co/DihlgQPsIY——老牌资源站，活得够久说明靠谱
5⃣ 半书讲——小而美，有些书在这儿反而好找
6⃣ 墨笔图书——补充选手，多一个备选少一次抓瞎

这几个基本把主流需求全覆盖了，不管你找小说、教材、专业书还是畅销书，挨个试下来基本都能搞定。

有一点要提醒你——这类网站随时可能抽风或者被墙，所以建议几个都存着，一个挂了换下一个，别把鸡蛋放一个篮子里。

书荒的时候别问我，这几个入口自己去翻，啥都有。

🔗 https://t.co/YgqAF4OjlU
🔗 https://t.co/CS7eLY2G3i
🔗 https://t.co/I4zPYqDDiH
🔗 https://t.co/RbAJrtM02P
🔗 https://t.co/tjlhJkE9KN
🔗 https://t.co/JkMcI3EvDo

[Joe Fan @FanJoe97]

#新头像

[Jeffrey P. Snider @JeffSnider_EDU]

Gold is not an inflation hedge. It is a safe haven and there is a huge difference.

Bullion's bull runs over the last twenty years have specifically coincided with DEFLATIONARY events.

Given that history, why is gold surging? Why now?

https://t.co/639Bcv6Xg0

People simply repeat something because they heard "everyone" else say it: low interest rates are stimulus; the Fed prints money; gold rises during inflation.

Just look at any chart for gold and pay close attention to the timing of the biggest moves.

It isn't random coincidence gold's first major surge started in the middle of 2005. Sure enough, given what was happening at the time (rising oil, falling dollar, hawkish Fed - sound familiar?), everyone said gold is a signal for looming inflation.

Nope. Not even close. While some people may have bought some bullion fearing 70s-style inflation, gold was actually rising as a safe haven. It wasn't inflation people were increasingly worried about, rather the drastic and deflationary consequences of that whole housing bubble thingy.

Gold jumped at the same time the bond market began to price the same possibilities. Those two go hand in hand; interest rates being the primary opportunity cost for owning gold.

Safe haven demand goes up, interest rates look like they'll go way down in the future, gold skyrockets.

The same thing also happened in 2018-19, by the way. Gold's second bull began in October '18 - the LANDMINE - which began another deflationary descent. The global economy hit a recession and interest rates dumped throughout 2019 even though hawkish policymakers in 2018 promised there'd be more inflation.

Gold is not an inflation hedge. It is a safe haven and that's a huge difference.

That difference is useful in telling us what the market is perceiving about risks and, even better, the intensity of those risks.

With oil prices surging, that only adds more to the disinflation potential (remember, we just did this with crude six months ago and it did NOT end up like 1973; the opposite, actually).

[Joe Fan @FanJoe97]

@SpokespersonCHN 华姐又去颐和园了 下次一起😏

[Joe Fan @FanJoe97]

@Pandazhq 建议这种文章闲时看看就好不要全当真，我闲了都不看，就观察宏观资金行业三个维度。

[Joe Fan @FanJoe97]

@caolei1 然后互道一声SB，挂电话走了

[Hao HONG 洪灝, CFA @HAOHONG_CFA]

China CAIXIN Manufacturing PMI disappoints. This is an indicator tilted disproportionally towards China’s export sector and SMEs. Today’s Caixin PMI disappoints because of very strong official PMI data last week. At Bo’ao, the Premier mentioned that the Chinese economy continued to improve in March in his keynote speech.

So where is the disconnect?

As aforementioned, the official PMI is titled towards larger SOEs, while the Caixin towards export and SMEs. Apparently, the SMEs are still struggling to find their footings while the SOEs are recovering with policy assistance. This may help explain why the authority is calling for more support for the private sector and SMEs.

The official service PMI surprised big on the upside last week. Such upside surprise may have heightened the disappointment today towards the Caixin PMI. But note that the service PMI has been driven by building and construction activities, rather than a genuine service recovery. This is consistent with continuing rising deposits in the bank system and a muted retail growth.

After a marked improvement in Jan/Feb, new home sales appear to continue to improve in March. And the improvement is across the T-1/2/3 cities, with T-1 cities improving sequentially. That’s said, SOEs developers continue to better private ones, who are still registering small Y/Y decline. This divergence between SOE and private developers is consistent with the divergence between the Official and Caixin PMI.

But land sales in 100 cities slowed in March, although again SOEs better private developers. This is an important leading indicator for future property investment. It suggests that the private developers are still hesitant to commit, and confidence recovery takes time. Fortunately, land purchase is not counted in GDP calculation and thus won’t affect GDP growth in 2023.

In sum, today’s Caixin PMI doesn’t really disappoint when considering its survey sample. Service PMI recovery is driven more by construction activities rather than a genuine consumption recovery. Property sales are improving, but land purchase suggest that private developers are still too diffident to commit. More work still needs to be done.

[Joe Fan @FanJoe97]

@caolei1 这体现了两国在认知和意识层面的本质区别，人工智能的核心应该围绕着底层通识的智能去创新，是最高级别的智能，是开创以人为本的智能时代，这个只要打通了其他垂直领域的智能化就是小菜一碟，反观墙内如果真是这种ai观念，差距只会越拉越大