Jay

Creator of the Point Efficiency Model (PEM) 📊 | CFB Analytics, Power Ratings & Projections | Weekly PEM Rankings, Matchups & Results | 🥃 Whiskey Collector

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

What is PEM?

PEM, or Point Efficiency Model, is a schedule-adjusted measure of how effectively a college football team produces and prevents points, expressed on a point-based power-rating scale.

It is not simply an efficiency ranking, a box-score model, or a résumé ranking. PEM evaluates offense and defense independently, then places that performance in the context of the competition a team has faced and the résumé it has built.

At its core, PEM is based on the idea that all production is not equal. Scoring production is evaluated alongside the efficiency with which it is created or prevented, rather than treating every point or possession the same.

A win does not automatically mean a team played well, and a loss does not automatically mean it played poorly. The underlying performance still matters.

Because PEM is expressed in points, the difference between two teams’ ratings serves as the baseline for a projected matchup margin before home-field advantage.

[Collin Wilson @Collin1]

South Alabama scored three touchdowns in 3 minutes 8 seconds of play

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Through Week 5 — Wake Forest: 4-1, 9.8-2.2 expected by PEM.

The full schedule, completed results and current PEM spreads for the games ahead. Simulated CFP chance: 27.9%.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Through Week 5 — Northwestern: 3-1, 9.2-2.8 expected by PEM.

The full schedule, completed results and current PEM spreads for the games ahead. Simulated CFP chance: 29.4%.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

We do not use games against FCS opponents as a piece of our data

[The Car @2019ShelbyGT350]

@FansOfCFB And those SEC offensive #'s are inflated by all the FCS teams they play.....You know the SEC plays more FCS teams then any other conference and has for years!!!

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt title-game projection:

James Madison vs. Louisiana
PEM: James Madison −8.4

The most frequent matchup across 10,000 season simulations.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt's projected race after Week 5.

James Madison leads with a 36.9% conference-title chance.

Every team's projected record and playoff chances below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt offense and defense through Week 5.

PEM's top offense: James Madison
Top defense: Louisiana

Every team ranked on both sides of the ball.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Sun Belt PEM ratings through Week 5.

James Madison leads at 9.2. Every team ranked below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

@TShoeIndex

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

PEM isn't treating Red River like a close one.

Texas -8.5 on the line. Texas -29.8 in PEM. Week 6's largest EDGE: 21.3.

Both defenses rank in PEM's top four. The offense gap is much bigger: Texas No. 17, OU No. 71.

Too much separation?

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Liberty -13.5 is a bigger margin than PEM projects.

PEM has Liberty by 8.8, putting Sam Houston +13.5 on the ATS side. EDGE: 4.7.

Liberty's No. 36 PEM defense is the strongest unit in this matchup.

6 PM CT.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Florida and Ole Miss: top-seven PEM offenses, defenses outside the top 70.
Alabama: No. 1 offense, No. 6 defense.
LSU: No. 2 defense.

The SEC on the same national scale after Week 5. Which defense is holding its team back?

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

@JPPlusCFB @wyattwendry2023 Got Arkansas St by 3.3 but still on the same side as y’all. Love seeing some confluence.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

UTSA is favored by 7. PEM has UTSA by 4.7.

That makes USF +7 the ATS pick, even with UTSA projected to win.

USF's No. 49 PEM defense faces UTSA's No. 66 offense. EDGE: 2.3.

6:30 PM CT.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

WKU is favored by 2.5. PEM has Missouri State winning by 12.5.

Thursday's biggest disagreement: 15.0 points of EDGE.

Missouri State +2.5 is the PEM ATS pick. One of the model's more aggressive upset calls this week.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Pac-12 title-game projection:

Boise State vs. Oregon State
PEM: Boise State −7.7

The most frequent matchup across 10,000 season simulations.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Pac-12's projected race after Week 5.

Boise State leads with a 59.2% conference-title chance.

Every team's projected record and playoff chances below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Pac-12 offense and defense through Week 5.

PEM's top offense: Oregon State
Top defense: Fresno State

Every team ranked on both sides of the ball.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

Pac-12 PEM ratings through Week 5.

Boise State leads at 15.9. Every team ranked below.

[Jay @FansOfCFB]

South Alabama has the better PEM offense rank. Arkansas State has the better defense rank, and home field.

PEM: Arkansas State by 3.3
Line: Arkansas State -1.5

PEM projects Arkansas State to win and cover. EDGE: 1.8.

6:30 PM CT.