Decoding oil market structure, logistics, and trade flows
Focused on physical markets, not headlines
Real-time signals from the system underneath the price
This week’s Farm Creek Intelligence examines the underlying conditions shaping the global LNG market, from European storage and Asian demand to U.S. export growth and Atlantic Basin optionality.
Intelligence begins before the market moves.
#LNG#NaturalGas#EnergyTrading#oott
Diesel remains one of the most important markets to watch.
Europe is structurally short.
Africa is competing aggressively for U.S. cargoes.
Australia and Turkey remain major importers.
The U.S. Gulf Coast continues to act as the world’s supplier of last resort.
#Diesel#OOTT
Diesel continues to tell a different story than crude.
While crude supply concerns have eased, distillate inventories, refinery yields, logistics, and replacement barrels remain the real constraints driving pricing.
This week’s Farm Creek Diesel Trade Intelligence:#Diesel#oott
Every company has a balance sheet.
Few have a Capability Balance Sheet.
My latest article explores why capability may be one of the most undervalued assets in business.
https://t.co/2eaDhVfmki
#Leadership#execution#BusinessPerformance#Valuation
A strong quarter proves you can perform.
What proves you can keep performing?
Leadership.
Strategy.
Learning.
Execution.
They may all be trying to create the same thing:
The ability to continue advancing the mission when conditions change.
Everyone is debating crude supply.
Diesel is where the signal is.
The constraint isn’t finding crude.
It’s converting, moving, and replacing distillate barrels.
The bottleneck is yield, not crude supply.
Farm Creek Diesel Trade Intelligence™
Everyone watches crude.
Diesel tells you what’s actually happening.
Freight moves on diesel.
Manufacturing runs on diesel.
Construction runs on diesel.
Watch distillates.
#oott#diesel
Most market commentary focuses on supply.
Most profits are created by understanding constraints.
Capacity constraints.
Transportation constraints.
Storage constraints.
Refining constraints.
Constraints create premiums.
#OOTT
The fastest way to misunderstand an oil market is to ignore logistics.
Pipelines, terminals, storage, vessels, and refinery outages often matter more than headlines.
Molecules still have to move.
Oil traders spend a lot of time watching price.
Physical traders spend more time watching movement.
Inventories.
Freight.
Refinery utilization.
Export flows.
Price is often the last thing to move.
#OOTT#OilMarkets
Most people watch the diesel price. Traders watch the arb.
Here's what USGC→Rotterdam actually looks like right now — every cost, line by line.
Net margin: $1.60/mt. Open but fragile. A $5/mt freight move closes it.
CE gasoil backwardation just hit $110.75/t over the 2nd month.
Pre-Hormuz conflict it was $9.75/t.
That's +1,036%.
This isn't speculation. This is the physical market screaming for barrels.
The highest-valued companies often aren’t the best-performing.
They have the largest inventory of credible and executable futures.
Strategic optionality creates value.
#Strategy#Valuation
The story isn’t crude.
The story is diesel.
Europe remains the marginal buyer and distillate balances remain tighter than headline crude balances suggest.
Watch diesel, not oil.
#OOTT#Diesel
DIESEL TRADE INTELLIGENCE™
Diesel is not following crude.
Europe remains dependent on imported barrels.
Singapore inventories remain tight.
Freight is becoming a larger component of delivered economics.
#OOTT#Diesel#OilTrading#Refining#EnergyMarkets
Two companies can have identical earnings.
One trades at 8x EBITDA.
The other trades at 14x.
The difference is often not performance.
It’s optionality.
#Valuation#PrivateEquity
Cybersecurity is increasingly becoming an operational issue rather than an IT issue.
The question is no longer whether an attack occurs.
The question is whether operations continue when it does.
#Cybersecurity#OperationalResilience