Farm Creek Advisors

Decoding oil market structure, logistics, and trade flows
Focused on physical markets, not headlines
Real-time signals from the system underneath the price

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

This week’s Farm Creek Intelligence examines the underlying conditions shaping the global LNG market, from European storage and Asian demand to U.S. export growth and Atlantic Basin optionality.

Intelligence begins before the market moves.

#LNG #NaturalGas #EnergyTrading #oott

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Diesel remains one of the most important markets to watch.

Europe is structurally short.

Africa is competing aggressively for U.S. cargoes.

Australia and Turkey remain major importers.

The U.S. Gulf Coast continues to act as the world’s supplier of last resort.

#Diesel #OOTT

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Diesel continues to tell a different story than crude.

While crude supply concerns have eased, distillate inventories, refinery yields, logistics, and replacement barrels remain the real constraints driving pricing.

This week’s Farm Creek Diesel Trade Intelligence:#Diesel #oott

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Every company has a balance sheet.

Few have a Capability Balance Sheet.

My latest article explores why capability may be one of the most undervalued assets in business.

https://t.co/2eaDhVfmki

#Leadership #execution #BusinessPerformance #Valuation

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

A strong quarter proves you can perform.

What proves you can keep performing?

Leadership.

Strategy.

Learning.

Execution.

They may all be trying to create the same thing:

The ability to continue advancing the mission when conditions change.

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Most energy headlines focus on supply.

Markets often move because of constraints.

The bottleneck determines the economics.

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Everyone is debating crude supply.

Diesel is where the signal is.

The constraint isn’t finding crude.

It’s converting, moving, and replacing distillate barrels.

The bottleneck is yield, not crude supply.

Farm Creek Diesel Trade Intelligence™

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Everyone watches crude.

Diesel tells you what’s actually happening.

Freight moves on diesel.

Manufacturing runs on diesel.

Construction runs on diesel.

Watch distillates.

#oott #diesel

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Most market commentary focuses on supply.

Most profits are created by understanding constraints.

Capacity constraints.
Transportation constraints.
Storage constraints.
Refining constraints.
Constraints create premiums.

#OOTT

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

https://t.co/XpHwcMxNPI

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

The fastest way to misunderstand an oil market is to ignore logistics.

Pipelines, terminals, storage, vessels, and refinery outages often matter more than headlines.

Molecules still have to move.

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Oil traders spend a lot of time watching price.

Physical traders spend more time watching movement.

Inventories.
Freight.
Refinery utilization.
Export flows.
Price is often the last thing to move.

#OOTT #OilMarkets

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Most people watch the diesel price. Traders watch the arb.

Here's what USGC→Rotterdam actually looks like right now — every cost, line by line.

Net margin: $1.60/mt. Open but fragile. A $5/mt freight move closes it.

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

CE gasoil backwardation just hit $110.75/t over the 2nd month.

Pre-Hormuz conflict it was $9.75/t.

That's +1,036%.

This isn't speculation. This is the physical market screaming for barrels.

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

The highest-valued companies often aren’t the best-performing.

They have the largest inventory of credible and executable futures.

Strategic optionality creates value.

#Strategy #Valuation

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

The story isn’t crude.

The story is diesel.

Europe remains the marginal buyer and distillate balances remain tighter than headline crude balances suggest.

Watch diesel, not oil.

#OOTT #Diesel

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

DIESEL TRADE INTELLIGENCE™

Diesel is not following crude.

Europe remains dependent on imported barrels.

Singapore inventories remain tight.

Freight is becoming a larger component of delivered economics.

#OOTT #Diesel #OilTrading #Refining #EnergyMarkets

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Two companies can have identical earnings.

One trades at 8x EBITDA.

The other trades at 14x.

The difference is often not performance.

It’s optionality.

#Valuation #PrivateEquity

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

Cybersecurity is increasingly becoming an operational issue rather than an IT issue.

The question is no longer whether an attack occurs.

The question is whether operations continue when it does.

#Cybersecurity #OperationalResilience

[Farm Creek Advisors @FarmCreek]

The private capital market isn't frozen.

It's selective.

Capital is still moving.

It is simply moving toward certainty.

#PrivateEquity #PrivateCapital #CapitalMarkets