farmbucks.com

Leading-edge company in the #Grain #Marketplace. Changing the way #Farmers source grain prices.

[Spiga Dorata @spiga_dorata]

Ahead of tomorrow Statistic Canada release, some durum estimates are in the range of 5,9 and 6,6 million tons 👀 ... 👇

#durumwheat #bledur #granoduro #Canada 🌾🇨🇦

[CNBC @CNBC]

Corn and wheat prices jump to highest prices in more than three years https://t.co/PB064n4mTr

[Corey Lavinsky @biofuelslaw]

RIN prices and SRE negotiations ran wild this week, with no resolution yesterday. Reallocating waived volumes remains a key issue. Proposals to change RFS mandates would require new rulemaking that won't be completed before year-end. #biofuels #RINs

[Jim McCormick @jpmccormick3]

Buckle up cattle traders

[Corey Lavinsky @biofuelslaw]

🚨BREAKING NEWS: EPA intends to issue all pending 2025 Small Refinery Exemption decisions by the end of August 2026. EPA also plans to extend the RFS 2025 compliance deadline for all obligated parties from its current date, September 1, 2026. #biofuels #RINs #SREs

[Brett Gibbs @OilandGibbs]

EPA issued a notice this morning that it is delaying 2025 compliance and is going to issue 2025 SREs by the end of the month.

Kudos to @JarrettRenshaw

I had not gotten word that this was being materially discussed by EPA until first thing this week.

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

"I have paused the 50% Tariffs against Canada, that were scheduled to kick in tomorrow morning for a three day period, based on the fact that Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL! The great Keystone XL Pipeline, long ago killed by Sleepy Joe Biden, may be awoken from the grave!" - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

[Gaurav kochar @gaurav_kochar]

🚨 RAPESEED PRICES ARE SURGING — DESPITE A RECORD GLOBAL CROP.

November rapeseed futures in Paris jumped 1.6% to €540.5/t, while Winnipeg canola surged 2.9% to C$804/t.

The paradox is striking: USDA raised 2026/27 global rapeseed production to a record 99.08 MMT, yet Black Sea supply disruptions are tightening near-term availability.

Ukraine is facing restricted Black Sea port operations. Russian shipment disruptions are adding further friction, while low Danube and Rhine water levels are inflating logistics costs.

EU physical bids are already around €510–520/t.

But this rally could be fragile.

A massive new oilseed supply wave is approaching, with soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil production expected to accelerate in September–October.

🔥 Tight logistics now.
🌾 Record supply ahead.
⚠️ Volatility could become extreme.

The Black Sea disruption is proving once again that logistics can overpower fundamentals — at least temporarily.

#Rapeseed #Canola #Ukraine #BlackSea #Oilseeds #Commodities

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

US Warns Canada to Remove Retaliatory Measures Ahead of Tariff Deadline

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Canada must remove retaliatory measures against US products to avoid additional tariffs from the Trump administration. Washington is demanding that Canadian provinces reverse restrictions on American alcohol sales and address broader concerns involving Canadian protection of its dairy sector and government procurement rules. Greer said any agreement must provide a solution or clear path forward on these issues.

The US and Canada are holding intensive negotiations ahead of the August 19 deadline, when Washington has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on an additional $20 billion of Canadian imports. Greer described the talks as constructive but warned that the US would respond to Canadian retaliation. Canadian officials remain in Washington working toward a compromise, but the threat of new tariffs continues to create uncertainty for businesses and cross-border trade.

[Gaurav kochar @gaurav_kochar]

🚨 RAPESEED MARKET: BLACK SEA DISRUPTION OVERRIDES RECORD SUPPLY 🌻

Rapeseed prices are surging despite USDA projecting a record global 2026/27 crop of 99.08 MMT.

🇫🇷 Paris November rapeseed: €540.5/t — +1.6% in 2 days
🇨🇦 Winnipeg canola: CAD 804/t — +2.9%

The bullish catalyst is logistics.

🇺🇦 Restricted Black Sea port operations are delaying Ukrainian rapeseed flows into Europe.

🇷🇺 Russian shipment disruptions are adding further supply friction.

🌊 Low water levels on the Danube & Rhine are simultaneously inflating transport costs and tightening physical availability.

EU crusher bids are already around €510–520/t for August–September delivery.

But the market faces a formidable bearish counterweight:

USDA raised global rapeseed production by 0.5 MMT to a record 99.08 MMT — 13 MMT above 2024/25.

And September–October brings a seasonal avalanche of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower oil production.

🔥 Logistics are tightening the market NOW.

⚠️ But record supply could overwhelm the rally LATER.

Rapeseed is entering a dangerous tug-of-war between geopolitical supply disruption and an enormous global crop.

#Rapeseed #Canola #BlackSea #Ukraine #Russia #Commodities #AgMarkets #Oilseeds

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Alpha Trade Friday Wrap

https://t.co/59YMFIcERT

Black Sea headlines did the heavy lifting this week.

#WHEAT: Chicago Dec rips to 689’4, up 5% on the week and a three-week high. Ukrainian strike on Ust-Luga plus Moscow rejecting a Black Sea truce put risk premium right back in the market. Russia and Ukraine own nearly 30% of world exports in 26/27. KC Dec at 767’6 pressing the 0.382 at 775’6. Inverse H&S neckline sits at 704’4 in Chicago.

#CORN: Sept 459’0, Dec 483’2. Both reclaimed the 9 and 20 day EMAs with momentum turning off oversold. But the ECMWF drops 2.21 to 2.80 inches straight across Iowa into Illinois and Indiana next seven days. That’s a positioning rally, not a fundamental one.

#BEANS: Sept 1177’6, Nov 1192’4. Both back above the 9 day EMA, both still fighting overhead. Nov needs 1189’2 to change the tone. Thin air under 1174’2.

#CATTLE: Oct LC 218.875, sitting on the 215.775 Fib. Oct FC 325.425 and broken. Tyson closing Joslin, shopping Pasco, phasing out Eagle Mountain. Slaughter 509,000 head, down 28,000 from last year. Cash traded lower at $228 to $230 live. Box prices stabilized Friday. Supplies stay tight, but the tape says lower first.

#CRUDE: $81.80, up nearly 5%. Hormuz still shut, blockade holding, IEA calling the widest deficit in five years. Premium isn’t coming out until the strait reopens.

#MACRO: Michigan sentiment 51 vs 55 expected. Retail sales worst drop in over a year. DXY through 99.6 toward the 95.53 low. S&P off 0.2% from record highs.
Risk premium in the grains and energy. Deterioration in cattle and the consumer.

[Areté - Market Intelligence @mkt_intl]

🇨🇦 CANADA #vegoils #barley #durum #rapeseed #pulses
Crop Report @SKGov:
Hot weather accelerated crop development across much of the province, helping delayed crops but stressing drier areas. Most crops remain in good condition.

[SAF Enjoyer 🇺🇸 👍🏽 @AviationPhils]

The turnaround in RINs from this blistering run alongside more public comments and upcoming EPA decision on SRE upcoming should let you know that, as always - someone already knows

[farmbucks.com @farmbuckscom]

I know everyone is watching US-Iran but I want to know what’s going on with the RIN market today?! What does it know? @OilandGibbs @biofuelslaw

[Andrey Sizov @sizov_andre]

"Global #wheat stocks are comfortable."

Stocks-to-use in major exporters says otherwise — 14.8% this season, barely above the 2024/25 low of 14.6%.

Now stack on top of that: the #1 exporter (Russia) and #6 (Ukraine) can't fully realize their export potential because of the Black Sea/Azov disruption.

Still comfortable?

#wheat #agwx #sizovreport

[Arlan Suderman @ArlanFF101]

Commodity Markets Are Selling Off. Are the Fundamentals Really Changing? #corn #soybeans #wheat #oatt https://t.co/e0hLS2r3z3

[farmbucks.com @farmbuckscom]

Interesting video. The big question everyone wants to know... will RUS/UKR make a grain deal soon or was that just talk? @sizov_andre

https://t.co/vdkxvykIhH

[farmbucks.com @farmbuckscom]

@sizov_andre have you seen this? thoughts? https://t.co/vdkxvykIhH

[Jim McCormick @jpmccormick3]

The Agriculture Department is lifting a more than yearlong ban on Mexican cattle imports, a move that could ease soaring beef prices https://t.co/CXwcgktzbZ via @WSJ

[WATCHER @WATCHER_GRAINS]

🌾🔴After an impressive rally since the beginning of July, driven by escalating Black Sea tensions, the market reversed sharply on fresh rumors:

🚨 The US and Ukraine are working on a proposal to present to Russia in an attempt to restore Black Sea trade.

As I mentioned in my previous post (below), I didn't believe this rally was sustainable. Both Russia and Ukraine are losing from the disruption to grain exports, while the US can hardly afford another source of food inflation on top of higher energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict.

➡️ Today, reports emerged that Zelensky spoke with the Trump administration to prepare the ground for negotiations. The market reacted immediately. If negotiations gain traction, today's move could be only the beginning. For now, nothing has been confirmed, these are still rumors.

🧠The key point is simple: for wheat, the issue is not production. The issue is logistics. Remove the logistical bottleneck, and prices can fall very quickly.