$STRC analysis
Currently trading around $85
$10.5B of STRC issued
Ahead of STRC in the stack: (these must be paid before STRC gets a recovery)
$6.75B convertibles
$1.28B STRF
Behind STRC in the stack (can be ignored for liquidation purposes)
$3.7B STRK + STRD + STRE
BTC held 846,842k = $54B
BTC breakeven about $20.6k ($17.4B value plus 1B cash reserve equals STRC notional plus seniors)
Real breakeven is higher because they'll be paying dividends throughout which reduces cash reserve.
If you model future BTC price off of IBIT options for 2028 and convert to risk neutral probabilities (assuming Claude is doing this correctly):
I get $86 liquidation estimated value for a 2 year horizon
I get $81.8 liquidation estimated value for a 2.5 year horizon
You do get paid the dividends while you wait and there's the potential to get out early in a bull market. You shouldn't get diluted more unless it goes to $100.
$85 seems fairly priced?
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