FedResearch

The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors

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New #FEDSPaper: Artificial Intelligence and the U.S. Economy: Current Evidence: https://t.co/2XvtkaFcK4

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Large incumbent service firms built the US service economy by opening new establishments. In a two-sector firm-dynamics model, cheaper replication costs + rising manufacturing productivity explain over 50% of US structural transformation. https://t.co/Ufu6iNfs8A #IFDPPaper

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Effects are larger in low-income countries, for products where the U.S. was a key destination for Chinese exports, and in countries geopolitically closer to China. (2/2) https://t.co/Z8Qqtwj0QL #IFDPPaper

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New #IFDPPaper: Chinese products targeted by U.S. tariffs see declines in import prices in “bystander” countries. (1/2) https://t.co/Z8Qqtwit1d

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New #FEDSPaper: Costly Misdemeanours: Labour Market Effects of Low-Level Drink-Driving Violations: https://t.co/2GHjjcaixB

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ICYMI New #FEDSPaper: Heterogeneity in Service Fee Sensitivity: Evidence from ATM Surcharges: https://t.co/9sWTBI2MHt

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What happened to the US dollar share of Euro Area central banks' FX reserves when they moved gold reserves out of the US? A new #FEDSNote investigates. https://t.co/lHagPzocUu

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New #FEDSNote: A Common Pattern behind Diverging Fortunes US Tariffs and Exports from Canada and Mexico: https://t.co/8GDIWn0kWD

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U.S. PD funds held about $530 billion of private credit loans in 2025Q4. Leverage (debt-to-NAV) at U.S. PD funds is low on average and relatively stable, at around 0.25. Funds at the 90th percentile have leverage ratios that are typically near 1. (2/2)

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Following our first note, “Introducing Private Credit into the U.S. Financial Accounts,” this new #FEDSNote details the methodology and how leverage and portfolio concentration differ across vehicles, reflecting distinct institutional structures. (1/2) https://t.co/WQpcDzV8Q0

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New #FEDSNote: The Effect of Oil Prices on Core Inflation: Recent Evidence from the Advanced Economies: https://t.co/PIp6bT1tox

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New #FEDSPaper: Heterogeneity in Service Fee Sensitivity: Evidence from ATM Surcharges: https://t.co/9sWTBI3kx1 #EconTwitter

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How have dealer balance sheets responded to recent increases in Treasury issuance? #FEDSNote https://t.co/GUtnNtB6yD #EconTwitter

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This #FEDSPaper constructs novel monthly county-level consumption measures from credit card spending data and shows how they enable analyses that are infeasible with traditional consumption data. https://t.co/IvIWH2Lyxa #EconTwitter

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New #IFDPPaper: When and for Whom Does the Sovereign-Bank Nexus Matter? Evidence from Post-Crisis Europe: https://t.co/pvqMUopdsz #EconTwitter

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New #FEDSNote: Government Bonds’ Safe-Haven Property and Inflationary Pressures: https://t.co/XPisgSpk6O

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New #FEDSNote: Ripples in the Reserve Pool: Unveiling Liquidity Signals from the Federal Funds Market: https://t.co/Nmf0otJ1Y8

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The September 2026 release of the Financial Accounts of the U.S. now integrates private credit. The charts show $2.6 trillion in assets across private credit vehicles & $1.5 trillion in loans to U.S. businesses. For more details: https://t.co/FKH37A8mvI
https://t.co/ZO4XK2AHS3

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ICYMI New #FEDSNote: Convenience Yields, Risk Premiums, and the Interpretation of Oil Futures Prices During Times of Geopolitical Conflict: https://t.co/7VbTPjxncx

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ICYMI New #FEDSNote: Beyond the Current Account: U.S. Financial Flows and Global Imbalances: https://t.co/9ydff1EKUo