Federico Polese

🇮🇹 CEO @20Quant | Founder @SimplifyPartners | Creator of Turbulence+ Index | Frozenboy | 7× Ironman | Rally Porsche Driver | AI-driven finance & strategy

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

@steve_hanke Someone get something in return

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

@ProfessorPape Any military action requires some preparation. Most times nothing happens

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

AI shock or overdone repricing?

The sell-off in Italian asset gatherers looks more like a headline-driven repricing than a deterioration in fundamentals. The HNW and private banking model remains relationship-led and integrated, making AI more of a productivity enhancer than a near-term disruptor. Dispersion should increase: scalable platforms with technology optionality on one side, franchises facing regulatory or governance overhangs on the other.

read our full article on substack: https://t.co/naCxOiF14v

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Check out my latest article: Stress Testing Portfolios in the Age of AI https://t.co/P76E4txMG6 via @LinkedIn

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Check out my latest article: Davos 2026 in one word: Power. https://t.co/MPJ60HgVvJ via @LinkedIn

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Turbulence Index quiet again.
NFP, tariffs, Venezuela = noise.
$200bn MBS plan boosts liquidity backdrop.
Early Jan signal stays bullish.
📷 Jan 10 Tactical Outlook: https://t.co/aibdmHEz4K
#macro #markets #SPX #bonds #volatility #VIX #commodities #risk

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Markets aren’t reacting to Powell.
They’re reacting to the regime beneath the headlines.
Gold higher. USD softer. Equities uneasy.
Not a personality story — a risk-premium story.

What matters:
• Inflation may be cooling, but growth is starting to wobble
• Policy credibility feeds term premia, not narratives
• Equity resilience is increasingly multiple-driven, not earnings-led
When noise dominates the news cycle, capital follows signals.

The real question:
Are portfolios positioned for disinflation — or for late-cycle slowdown?

#Macro #Markets #Fed #Inflation #Rates #20Quant #SimplifyPartners

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

@steve_hanke Nonsense

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

@godofprompt This chart is from 2024

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

TI quiet (6th wk) → no systemic stress. Fed adds liquidity; less hawkish than feared. Rally faded on ORCL; short-term DeMark sells active (SPX/NDX/SOX) → near-term consolidation. 10Y ~4.20% key; break ⇒ ~4.50%. Plan: add on weakness, keep light hedges.

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

JPMorgan is front-running rate cuts.

• ~$350bn moved out of Fed reserves
• Treasury holdings nearly doubled
• Yield locked in before easing hits margins
This isn’t liquidity stress — it’s balance-sheet optimisation.
When GSIBs reposition at this scale, it’s a macro signal, not noise.

#Rates #Macro #Banking #Treasuries #20Quant #SimplifyPartners

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Hedge funds are pushing deeper into physical commodities — power, gas, storage, logistics.

Not for leverage, but for information.
Physical markets reveal demand, weather, and supply stress before prices do.
In a muted return environment, real assets are becoming a data advantage.

#Commodities #Macro #HedgeFunds #Energy #20Quant

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

TI quiet 5th week (slightly higher) → no cross-asset stress.
Fed next week: upside likely capped near SPX 6,850–6,900. DXY turning tactically higher (watch ~100.5). 10Y ~4.13% pivot; break ⇒ ~4.30%. Plan: add on weakness (~6,700), keep light hedges.

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

China’s goods trade surplus just pushed past $1tn.

▪️ Exports weak to the US, strong to ASEAN & EU
▪️ Suspected re-routing via third countries
▪️ FX & tariffs becoming the pressure valves
Key question: how long can partners tolerate these imbalances before policy bites?
https://t.co/gWRBuZsv6t

#China #Macro #GlobalTrade #FX #SimplifyPartners #20Quant

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Wall Street expects double-digit U.S. equity gains in 2026 — despite AI bubble fears and record tech capex.

The bullish view: policy tailwinds + AI earnings will carry the cycle.
The risk: narrow leadership + unrealized cash flows.
2026 will test the conviction behind this rally.
#SimplifyPartners #20Quant #Markets

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Turbulence Index quiet (4th wk). Breadth improving: R2000 >50d and through early-Nov downtrend.
One more wobble unless SPX ~6,820 & NDX ~25,200 break/hold. Base case: constructive into year-end—add on weakness, not breakouts; keep a balanced tilt.

https://t.co/RT5ehT1xJJ

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

U.S. private employers shed 32,000 jobs in November — the largest drop since the summer.

Small businesses took the biggest hit, cutting 120,000 positions, with construction, manufacturing, and professional services all contracting.
ADP’s chief economist calls small firms “the canary in the coal mine” — and the signal is clear:
the labour market is weakening.

• Wage growth slowing (4.4%)
• Bond yields falling
• Fed decision approaching
• Consumers pulling back
A soft landing is still possible — but the stress is showing at the edges first.

#Jobs #USLaborMarket #ADP #Economy #FOMC #SimplifyPartners #20Quant

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

AI hype has pushed markets into bubble territory — but it also created a rare opening.

Quality stocks are now trading at a 30% discount to the market — their cheapest levels since the dot-com era.

High ROE, stable earnings, low debt… and historically strong returns after periods of underperformance.

Sharma (FT) sees ~15% annual returns over the next 3 years.

In a world where everything looks expensive, quality is the exception.

#SimplifyPartners #20Quant #QualityFactor #Markets #Investing #AI

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

OpenAI’s lead is no longer untouchable.

Google’s Gemini 3 is closing the gap fast — outperforming GPT-5 on key benchmarks and shifting sentiment across the ecosystem.

For the first time since 2022, OpenAI faces pressure on all three fronts:
• Compute costs exploding
• Talent retention getting harder
• Rivals scaling with deeper balance sheets
The AI race isn’t slowing — but the leadership board is no longer fixed.

#AI #OpenAI #Google #Anthropic #TechStrategy #20Quant #SimplifyPartners

[Federico Polese @FedericoPolese]

Moody’s finally upgraded Italy — the last agency still holding a post-crisis view.

@lorenzocodogno 's take:
• Re-rating continues, but slower from here
• Public finances improved less than headlines suggest
• Debt still leaves Italy exposed to rate/growth shocks
• A real upgrade path needs a 2.5–3.5% primary surplus (vs. 0.5% in 2024)
Momentum is there — credibility now depends on fiscal discipline.
#SimplifyPartners #20Quant #Italy #Macro #Ratings #Eurozone