great take by @davidklanecky@cirba_solutions
"Whoever controls refining and recycling controls the battery market. China figured that out 20 years ago."
govt is taking some steps: black mass rule hits next week (aug 27): recycled sales must be 100% domestic unless you get an exception. however: almost all refining capacity is in Asia.
interesting to see how this shakes out and which firms snatch up the black mass supply
https://t.co/kzwH9ZhOf8
Got to hear @rauchg speak the other day. Now that llms are clustering the distribution of work outputs so strongly around the mean, itβs more important than ever to fight away from the average.
US % of global polysilicon capacity: 50% in 2005. <2% in 2024.
This month: minimum import prices at 4x world levels ($21/kg). effective December 4.
a small number of vertically integrated (polysilicon->up) companies are winners (@Qcells_NA). costs will go up for anyone importing wafers or panels - discretionary exceptions for manufacturers committing to domestic production by 2029
https://t.co/FlysgrHbcC
thanks to @speedrun for the insane line up
@steipete - being a real person is now your biggest differentiator
@rauchg - you really have to fight average because now everybody in the world can produce average
@handotdev - founders often give up too early because they haven't put in the effort to do GTM properly. GTM needs to be as strong as your product
@Max - all decisions are either art, science, or religion. important to know which
Fun fact: Waymo has to pay a 100% tariff on these because they are Chinese.
Even with this additional cost, they cost 50% as much as the Jaguar versions!