Fenchak

Data Analyst, UMBC alum

[Darth Putin @DarthPutinKGB]

Ukrainian drones are ineffective cos Russian surface to air missile went air to surface to make an oil terminal surface to air.

I remain a master strategist.

[Pete @splendid_pete]

Trump’s Kyiv story is absolute weapons-grade bullshit.

Yes, Russian forces moved toward Kyiv. Yes, there was a massive convoy north of the city. Yes, mud mattered. Yes, Javelins helped.

But Trump takes those real fragments, throws them into a blender with his own ego, and produces the dumbest possible version of the Battle of Kyiv.

His claim is basically this: Russia had a perfect highway to Kyiv, one idiot general randomly chose a muddy field instead, the tanks got stuck like cartoon villains, and then Trump’s magical Javelins saved Ukraine.

The Russian column was not just hundreds of tanks. It was a huge mixed military convoy: tanks, armored vehicles, trucks, fuel tankers, artillery, supply vehicles, and troops. It stalled because Russia’s entire invasion plan was rotten: bad logistics, fuel shortages, food shortages, poor maintenance, congestion, mechanical failures, Ukrainian resistance, destroyed bridges, artillery fire, ambushes, drones, flooding, mud, and failed operations around Hostomel, Irpin, Moshchun, Brovary, and Chernihiv.

There was no single genius moment where Russia could have just gone straight down the “concrete highway” and won the war in four hours. That is idiotic. A tank’s top road speed is irrelevant when you are moving a massive invasion force through hostile territory, under attack, with broken logistics, contested airspace, destroyed infrastructure, and people shooting at you.

Roads aren’t even made of fucking concrete. It’s not Trump Tower.

And then there is the Javelin lie.

Trump keeps saying, “I gave them Javelins,” like he personally walked into Kyiv with a shopping bag full of missiles. No. The first 2018 package was a Foreign Military Sale. Ukraine requested to buy 210 Javelin missiles and 37 launch units for about $47 million. Bought. Not gifted by Saint Donald of Anti-Tank Charity.

And even that came with restrictions. Ukrainian forces were initially limited in how they could deploy and use them, with later rules allowing defensive use more broadly. So even his one favourite talking point is inflated, stripped of context, and repackaged as self-worship.

Javelins helped. Nobody serious denies that. But they were not the only reason Russian armor got mauled. Ukraine also had NLAWs, Stugna-P, Korsar, Barrier, older ATGWs, artillery, drones, mines, ambush teams, destroyed bridges, flooded approaches, local defenders, and actual soldiers who knew what they were doing.

The “Obama gave them sheets” line is also bullshit. Obama refused lethal anti-tank weapons, which is a fair criticism. But US support under Obama was not just blankets. It included training, body armor, helmets, vehicles, night and thermal vision, radios, patrol boats, rations, tents, counter-mortar radars, uniforms, medical supplies, and other equipment.

So the real version is simple:

Russia did not fail at Kyiv because one general picked mud over a motorway.

Russia failed because Ukraine fought back, Russia’s logistics were garbage, its planning was arrogant, its units were badly prepared, its columns were vulnerable, its air assault at Hostomel failed, its advances were delayed and mauled, and Kyiv did not collapse.

Trump did not save Ukraine with Javelins. Ukraine bought the first batch, later received more Western weapons, and then Ukrainians did the actual fighting.

As usual, Trump found one real word in the story, stapled it to his ego, and called the whole thing truth. Like a retard he is.

[Ron Filipkowski @RonFilipkowski]

At this point, anything is possible.

[NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 @NOELreports]

Good night, sleep well and see you tomorrow!

[Pete @splendid_pete]

Swamplander invader says she ran out of petrol in occupied Simferopol, Crimea, during a fuel shortage that has apparently been going on for three weeks.

She was driving around looking for fuel when her car died at a roundabout near the central market. She says she pushed it away from traffic so it would not block the road or cause an accident. Then the authorities towed it to an impound lot anyway.

Now she is standing there, tank empty, asking how she is supposed to collect a car that still has no petrol in it.

This would normally be a sad story, but in this case, who cares? 😂

[Maksym Borodin @adnashmyash]

We are here

[Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv]

Having herself been installed into the US House of Representatives on a wave of Russian-backed social media operations, Marjorie Taylor Greene comes home, likely attempting to build her probable Presidential run with a little help from Moscow amid the US electorate's growing hatred of Trump's obscene levels of corruption.

Moscow will push anything that sows division within the US.

[Oksii ✚ 🇺🇦 @Oksii33]

The queue for gasoline in Crimea is now a tourist attraction

[TankerFella @TankerFella]

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is gaining momentum

In the spring of 2023, everyone was swept up in euphoria—Ukraine was preparing for its counteroffensive. New brigades were being trained, armed with new weapons, and everyone was waiting for them to strike and liberate Ukraine’s occupied territories.

Russian channels were filled with horror stories about how their fortifications would first be attacked with missiles, then everything would be overrun by combat vehicles, and finally the infantry would finish the job.
Between the lines, everyone sensed that the goal would be to reach the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut off Crimea.

It all ended in a massive fiasco—the Russians knew the plans perfectly well, and the territories had been mined and heavily shelled. Many Ukrainians were killed, and due to the conflict between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy, the latter was forced to step down. The lessons of this bloodbath were learned—successful offensive plans thrive on secrecy.

Another lesson was learned in Kherson—when the Russians’ logistics were completely cut off. It wasn’t difficult—the right bank was connected to the left by only a couple of bridges, so with the Ukrainians controlling them with HIMARS, logistics collapsed and the Russians withdrew without a fight.

The lessons were clear as well—the first and often the last task is to cut off logistics.

For several months now, a new Ukrainian counteroffensive has been proceeding quite successfully with the same objective—to reach the Sea of Azov, cut off Crimea, and ultimately enter it.

Logistics on the left bank of the Dnieper have now been completely destroyed. This was achieved by developing drones that are resistant to radio jamming and can fly hundreds of kilometers. All Russian attempts to deliver fuel and ammunition end in their destruction—the drones control everything.

Today, rumors have already spread that the Russians are withdrawing troops from the Kinburn Spit—the farthest point. And I think this is true, because it’s simply impossible to hold out without receiving reinforcements. And I think that soon the Russians will face an existential question—what to do on the southern front. Try to hold out, but that will require withdrawing forces from the Donbas, or retreat.

But in the event of a withdrawal, it’s unclear where to retreat to—because once the Ukrainians reach the Sea of Azov, the fall of Crimea will be only a matter of time. The Ukrainians aren’t the Finns, for whom a freeze in the front lines was acceptable. And once Crimea falls, it is unimaginable that Putin and his henchmen will remain in power.

It seems to me that we are approaching a very, very interesting moment. It makes no difference what a rat cornered in a corner will do if an iron fist begins to squeeze it.

[Fenchak @FenchakPaul]

@anders_aslund @LevHavryliv Time to fast track 🦩production.

[Rep. Don Bacon 🇺🇸✈️🏍️⭐️🎖️ @RepDonBacon]

Mr Witkoff has gone to Moscow eight times to negotiate peace… zero times to Ukraine. Most Americans know this is not right. Don’t pretend to be neutral when the facts are obvious. Can we get someone serious in the position to do this right?

[Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv]

Russians finally begin to understand that there's nothing they can do to prevent Ukraine from regaining the 1991 borders of their country, and that no real negotiations will begin until that time.

A popular Russian blogger further laments that "the chance to escape the war will not appear until society reaches the point of understanding the inevitability of a complete withdrawal from Ukrainian territory and comes to terms with this reality".

[Kate from Kharkiv @BohuslavskaKate]

Pastor Mark Burns: Being here in Ukraine, with the people, I can say that propaganda from Russia is very real — and how it’s used in Christian conservative circles to essentially dislike Ukrainians.

And so when I saw with my own eyes that Ukrainians do love God, are not racists, are not godless society as they were being portrayed, are not corrupt people — they’re normal people just like you and me.

And the fact that Ukraine is bigger than just blue and yellow map that you see on CNN — they’re real people. Real mothers, real daughters, real children.

And when I saw that and atrocities that Russians were doing — not the war, but war crimes they had been committing against Ukrainians — my heart immediately shifted and changed from being just a Republican to being a human being.

And I had to choose then to speak for what is right, and not necessarily what is popular. That’s what changed my heart.

[Tymofiy Mylovanov @Mylovanov]

Chief of Estonian Intelligence, Kaupo Rosin: Pressure is mounting inside Russia.

There is no real battlefield success despite the extremely high cost, economic and financial problems are mounting, and the internal mood is changing. 1/

[Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 @maria_drutska]

HAHAHAHAHA

❗️OFFICIAL: Zelensky has granted permission for Russia to hold its pathetic parade on Red Square.

(It’s not AI, the decree is on the President’s official website)

[Adam Kinzinger (Slava Ukraini) 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @AdamKinzinger]

Hasn’t whined about needing a ballroom to feel safe

[Fenchak @FenchakPaul]

@TheCIOWhisperer @MeanwhileInUA @grok Grok messes this answer up every time. March was a baltic port only figure. In April the black sea terminals started getting hit as well. This plus repeat hits on the baltic brought the actual figure to a 50-60% range conservatively.

[Covie @covie_93]

How Volodymr Zelenskyy manages to survive in a literal war without a ballroom to keep him safe is just shocking to me.

[Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR]

From today’s Russian papers: Donald Trump “remains an important foreign policy resource for Moscow. But the value of this resource has gone down & will continue to fall, as the Midterms get closer.” #ReadingRussia