Fergus Kell

Research Fellow for @ChathamHouse's @AfricaProg

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

🇰🇪🌐 New piece on Kenya’s contribution to the G7 summit on global economic imbalances.

Symbolism alone won't address the international conditions that fuel discontent at home.

For @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg #Kenya #G7

https://t.co/zx6Ti6CSn2

[Chatham House @ChathamHouse]

Kenya has felt the pressures of costly debt, risk-averse Western investment and China’s industrial dominance. The G7 summit on global economic imbalances is a chance to speak up.

Read @FergusKell's (@AfricaProg) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
https://t.co/LAFb0mqn7D

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

@MwangoCapital Interesting timing pre-G7, as our Chatham House comment piece yesterday alluded to:

https://t.co/zx6Ti6CSn2

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

📣 | This panel discussion, held in collaboration with @KASonline, assesses the potential impact of the Africa Credit Rating Agency on reducing borrowing costs and lowering barriers to financing for African countries.

🔗Register: https://t.co/LdR8D9V0xQ

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇹🇿 | “Russia is being opportunist...It doesn't have a massive amount to gain, but it is taking the opportunity of a weakened (Tanzanian) administration,” @FergusKell tells @France24 as President Samia Suluhu Hassan begins a state visit to Russia.

Read: https://t.co/qhrV80nIo4

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

@CharlieTTEcon The $2 trillion figure is starting to take on a life of its own - similar to the 30 per cent of critical mineral reserves stat

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇰🇪 | “#Kenya wants to showcase itself as a regional gateway not only for #France but for other states seeking a new footprint on the African continent beyond traditional partnerships,” @FergusKell tells @ForbesAfrica on the Africa Forward Summit: https://t.co/SBs3IyzLUh

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

📣There is widespread recognition that global order is shifting towards multipolar dynamics, with major impact on politics, economics and conflicts in eastern Africa. But how are eastern African leaders and societies responding to and shaping this change?

Leaders and thinkers from the region reflect on the present geopolitical changes, the initial responses, and the choices ahead at this upcoming event with @The_BIEA and @RVInews ↓

Register: https://t.co/8GR54JQqBq

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇰🇪 | #Kenya and #France are scheduled to co-chair the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi next month where over 2,000 delegates are expected to attend.

@FergusKell discusses this via @forbesafrica:
https://t.co/SBs3IyAjJP

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

🇰🇪 Yesterday chaired an event with @RealMatiangi of @JubileePartyK

His views: opposition is 'coalition of necessity', not convenience; reforms needed to protect Kenya's anchor state status; Gen-Z pressure waiting for trigger & 2027 could make 2007 'look like a kid's party'

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇰🇪 | This week, we welcomed former Cabinet Secretary and now presidential aspirant Dr Fred Matiang’i (@RealMatiangi) to @ChathamHouse to discuss the outlook for #Kenya’s political opposition in the lead up to elections in 2027, and the prospects for democratic politics to meet citizens’ demands.

#CHAfrica

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

@Brad_Setser SGR loans were (before recent conversion to RMB) set at floating rates so also a significant interest rise over these years; plus China unilaterally rejected Kenya’s DSSI extension in 2021.

[Julians Amboko @AmbokoJH]

Last week when the Final Budget Policy Statement 2026 was tabled in the National Assembly revealing a rejig in the borrowing mix, I mused that the favourable rating actions from Moody's & Fitch had jolted the state to a return to the global capital markets (see quoted tweet).

Well, here we are!

Kenya is back in the market with a buyback, repurchasing up to US$500.0 Million of two notes - the 8.0% 2032 & the 7.25% 2028 & coupling it with a new issuance for refinancing.

What stands out for me?

5 things:

· It's the second repurchase of the 7.25% 2028 note in 5 months. In Oct 2025, it registered US$628.44 Million worth of valid tenders as at the close of the offer period
· It's the 3rd repurchase in 12 months with Kenya having executed buyback of its US$900.0 Million 2027 note in February, it registered valid tenders worth US$579.69 Million
· Kenya will be floating a new Eurobond note to refinance, a move that aligns with the recent rating actions from Moody's & Fitch
· Important to have in mind that National Treasury plans to go to market with a Sustainability Linked Bond in March 2026 targeting US$500.0 Million (~ Kes 65.0 billion), so it's a back-to-back liability management execution
· There's an mission from the International Monetary Fund slated to arrive in the country end this month. I think a new programme is firmly off the table now, discussions will potentially lean more towards Article IV & the DSA

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

📣 HE Dr @MusaliaMudavadi EGH, Kenya’s Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs reflects on Kenya’s role and its positioning within a rapidly changing and geopolitically complex international context.

🔗Register: https://t.co/4Kax25LW5s

[Mwango Capital @MwangoCapital]

Moody’s has upgraded Kenya’s sovereign rating to B3 from Caa1 and revised the outlook to stable, citing a clear reduction in near term default risk:

—The upgrade reflects stronger external liquidity, with FX reserves rising to $12.2B (5.3 months of imports), a narrower current account deficit, and a more stable exchange rate.
—Improved market access was key, following $3.0B in eurobond issuance and $1.2B in buybacks, pushing the next major external maturity to 2030.
—Domestic financing conditions have eased, with oversubscribed auctions and lower yields, reducing immediate reliance on external funding despite large fiscal needs.
—Constraints remain, including weak debt affordability, interest costs above 30% of revenue, persistent deficits near 6% of GDP, and limited progress on fiscal consolidation.

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇺🇬“#Uganda’s next five years will hinge on Museveni’s succession plan, oil revenue production and translating economic gains into prosperity, especially for urban youth”

— @ChathamHouse’s @FergusKell via @business

https://t.co/xlfW0wDSig

[Chatham House @ChathamHouse]

🇺🇬 | Uganda has shown steady economic growth and resilience to significant external shocks, but many Ugandans feel they are still waiting for a promised economic boom.

Read @FergusKell's (@AfricaProg) latest analysis on Uganda's election⤵️
https://t.co/j0rt4sj6ZK

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

🇺🇬 A look at Uganda's election for @ChathamHouse @AfricaProg

In 2012 President Museveni spoke at Chatham House about Uganda's 'take-off stage'. 14 years on, succession & Gen-Z questions are raising the stakes for delivery. #UgandaDecides2026

https://t.co/dM9gwIurut

[Chatham House @ChathamHouse]

🇹🇿 | Once envied for its political stability, Tanzania is forever changed after the election day killings of protesters.

Read @FergusKell's (@AfricaProg) latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️
https://t.co/eUEyUaiTUr

[Fergus Kell @FergusKell]

🇹🇿 New for @ChathamHouse on #Tanzania:

Current anti-foreign rhetoric is more costly to Tanzania in context of development cuts, not less – as partners shift to business/trade facilitation, political risk has skyrocketed. Gov must take accountability.

https://t.co/OJ40kgQnLb

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇹🇿 Continued government deflection will only entrench the root causes of #Tanzania’s election crisis – making further instability a matter of when, not if, @FergusKell argues in his latest @ChathamHouse expert comment.

https://t.co/SbAP56OfiM

[Chatham House Africa @AfricaProg]

🇹🇿 #Tanzania shows that even one of #Africa’s most deeply entrenched examples of ‘political stability’ is increasingly vulnerable to new convergences of technology, economic inequality and rapid population growth.

— @FergusKell via @Telegraph: https://t.co/duQToKxwHL