FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary

Creating a dialogue about fertilizer pricing and ag input topics.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

TRUMP: WE WILL END UP PUTTING SEVERE TARIFFS ON FERTILIZER FROM CANADA IF WE HAVE TO

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

After new EU tariffs, fertilizer imports from Russia in Jul–Sep were down nearly 80% y/y to about 301kt. France was hit hardest: its imports of now-tariffed Russian fertilizers collapsed 97% y/y to just 4kt, all CAN. Europe's cheapest fertilizer supply has been walled off.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

US potash prices showing signs of weaking. NOLA barges are being offered in the $300/short ton range, down $20/st from prior assessments.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

In the first business day after President Trump announced the removal of most tariffs on fertilizer imports to the US, wholesale MAP/DAP prices declined by $40-$50/ton. Expect prices to drop $70-$100/ton over the next several weeks as cargoes get booked to the US.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

@CNC3TV Slight correction: anhydrous ammonia from T&T continues to have a 15% tariff in place. Urea and UAN are now tariff-free.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

President Trump removes reciprocal tariffs on many fertilizer products, including urea, UAN, MAP/DAP, and ammonium sulfate. In the near term, this should have a minimal impact on nitrogen pricing. Expect MAP/DAP pricing to come down over the next several weeks.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

@cattleNcrops83 UltraMate LQ (liquid humate)

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Warm, dry conditions in the US northern tier (Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin) are supportive of final pre-plant fertilizer applications. Those in the region will find continued tight supply, especially on products like urea, MAP, and AMS.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

The potash summer fill program is expected within the next two weeks. While the retail channel should end the season empty, basic producers should still have inventory on hand. Expect the MW wholesale potash price to start with a "3" by late June. $390/st is my predication.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

US Potash (MOP) prices have moved off of their spring season highs. Illinois River wholesale prices are down to $420/st, and prices are about $30/st higher in areas where spring demand is still occurring. As the spring season winds down, we should expect a further price reset.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

The June Tampa ammonia contract settles at $340/mt. Based upon historical pricing spreads, this implies a US Midwest ammonia summer fill value of around $370-$400/st. That’s an additional $60-$90/st reset over current values. Granted, lots could change in the next 3-4 weeks.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Today, the Tampa ammonia contract is at $380/mt. In other words, the market has already substantially discounted the price of ammonia to account for lower natural gas prices.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

European natural gas prices continue to slide. The front-month Dutch TTF contract is now at $8.86/MMBtu. You have to go back to May 2021 to see such a low value. While this might seem bearish to the global ammonia cost curve, the Tampa ammonia contract was $545/mt then.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

The International Fertilizer Association’s 2023 conference is underway in Prague. Seeing the diverse attendees reminds me that the United States only accounts for 10% of global fertilizer usage. While I tend to get focused on my home market, there’s so much more. #IFA2023

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Midwest wholesale ammonia prices now $475/st or below, driven by cheap nat gas, global oversupply, and a so-so pre-plant application. Nitrogen producers still seeing healthy margins, even at this price. Hand-to-mouth buying encouraged for the final purchases for side dress.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

NOLA urea barges hit $475/st today. That's the highest price of the calendar year. The urea futures market shows a wild inverse. The June futures contract has an indicative value of around $320/st, indicating market participants are expecting a massive price decline.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Prompt NOLA #urea barges traded for $450/st today. On March 28, NOLA urea barges traded for $295/st.
In less than a month, barge prices have increased >50%. Nothing has fundamentally changed. The only difference is demand has kicked in and buyers are scrambling to secure tons.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Product outages are becoming more common on dry phosphates (MAP & DAP) throughout the US Midwest. Limited carryover inventory from last fall, reduced domestic production, and deferred buying/risk averse behavior have all contributed to the current situation.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Prompt (April) NOLA urea barges trade today at $415/st. The June NOLA urea futures contract is indicated at $335/st. Basically, fertilizer market participants are expecting an $80/st price decline over the next 5-8 weeks.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

Cornbelt potash rose to the $450-$470/st range. That’s a $40/st increase. Product outages are becoming more prevalent.
Noticeably absent are ammonia and UAN prices. Ammonia continues to slide and UAN is unchanged.
Spring is here! Delayed purchasing is finally catching up.

[FertiTrend - Fertilizer Commentary @Fertitrend]

What a week in US Fertilizer.
The market started stirring last week, but it completely woke up this week.
NOLA urea surged to 12 week highs, going as high as $387/st.
NOLA MAP rose to $650/st, $70/st gain! MAP closed the gap with DAP.