As someone who has worked in IT for 30 years, I’d take that gentlemen’s bet against you.
I built some apps internally for my company in a few weeks that are far better than SaaS, more customized, and both combined cost me about $15 a month to operate.
If I worked for a SaaS right now, I’d be kind of scared.
I was also able to do all kinds of videos for educational usage. Easy to make. You don’t need a production team. No costly training materials. Even creating logos are inexpensive and may decimate an entire industry of graphic designers.
I got hooked on some ‘vertical dramas’ which are low grade stupid videos on Facebook. Some secret billionaire stuff. All of them are now made in AI and while you can tell it’s AI, it’s getting really close to the real thing. This can completely decimate actors, camera men, directors, editors. Done for a few dollars instead of the normal $300,000 budget. This may take commercials over. It may eventually take over movies as some 4 minute movie clips I saw hooked me into wanting to see a full movie.
I made an investor presentation and used PowerPoint. Something that could have taken me a month I was able to do high quality in 2-3 days.
I think where you do have a point is there will be a cost benefit analysis that is going to destroy some AI companies, which could lead to a domino effect with jack’s round tripping reporting. But I rely on it now all the time.
Once the masses start getting involved - this is where the game is a big deal. Customer support centers are now all AI. Most IT people may be out of the industry in 5 years. Programmers en masse may have no home. Or, perhaps, they all start to produce more rapidly. Speed to market could improve.
The big issue in the 1980s was that ‘all of these clerks are going to be out of a job, the country is doomed!’ No, people adapt. And with this, many people could lose their jobs with this, but maybe they use AI to build a web page for a company they always had an idea for. AI now tells them how to make an LLC. It advises on marketing. Builds your logo. Basically - AI now has the ability to help anyone in a few hours create a company from scratch.
So. Is there downside risks in the stocks? Yes! Is there a risk of some of these companies running out of money? Yes! But many may just issue more shares and endlessly dilute shareholders for 5 years. But yes, I feel it will be a productivity boom.
Most importantly, I feel our manufacturing is coming back here with AI and automation. Where a plant in Detroit may have had 10,000 employees who were auto line workers that left for Vietnam in 1997, those jobs may come back with a factory 6 times the size that needs 1500 techies to design the automation and maintain the machinery and inventory. Human labor for many things is going away. But you still need to build the skill. Program the CNC machine. Feed the hopper. Direct the robots. Audit. Purchase.
I love where the future is going and I am on the other side of the doom trade on this for American productivity. It doesn’t mean the numbers can sustain it.
The real danger? Half the country adapts to AI in everything. But the costs to do this go vertical and the AI companies go out of business. It then leads to many companies having a company that may be ill equipped to support the company without AI. Which is a whole other set of scary.