Abhishek Jain

⚡ Macro | Systematic RV & HFT Market Making | AlphaGrep

[Ritesh Jain @riteshmjn]

This is probably my most important post.

The FED stole your future and there is no going back

"The system is rigged. The deep state does not want us to be free. The American dream is dead."

Statements like these conjure images of deep pessimism, a worldview where you have no agency, where you are merely a puppet dancing for malignant powers you cannot see or touch. We are not people who live in that camp. But sometimes, certain data points are so damning that they leave us no choice but to admit: something is seriously wrong, and it needs to be laid out in the open.

Every time I visit India now, I find people agitated. Even those in the top 10% of the income bracket, earning anywhere from ₹50 lakhs to a crore per year, feel like they are running on a treadmill that keeps accelerating. No matter how fast they move, it is never enough. At the ground level, the situation is far worse. It is the same story everywhere. In Canada, both partners in a household work full time and still fall short each month. In Australia, young professionals earn well and own nothing. In Germany, the middle class quietly shrinks. The geography changes. The exhaustion does not.

And the origins of this mess are not in New Delhi or Ottawa or Berlin. They are in Washington D.C. All of us are paying the price for a policy disaster handed down from ivory towers, by people most of us never elected and, frankly, never even saw.

Consider this: the U.S. money supply (M2) grew by 40% in just 2 years

*The Federal Reserve United States Money Supply M2*
January 1, 2020: $15.4 trillion
January 1, 2022: $21.6 trillion
A staggering ~40% increase
As of Mar-26, $ 22.6 Tn

( so they never reversed the increased money supply although Covid got over)

Unprecedented in the history of the Federal Reserve post-World War 2 era. (Source: FRED) This massive injection of liquidity created asset bubbles across the economy. Wages stayed stagnant. Those who owned capital benefited enormously. Everyone else got the inflation.

Most people have not yet identified the cause of their frustration, but they have begun to feel its effects viscerally. And that feeling, that the system simply cannot deliver on their aspirations, has become the quiet tailwind driving a very dangerous behavioural shift.

The more people sense that conventional paths are closed off, the more they reach for asymmetric bets, even knowing the odds are stacked heavily against them. The explosion of betting apps and prediction markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, Dream11 and their many cousins, are not trends. They are symptoms of a broken economy. The feverish rise in F&O trading and the massive uptick in exchange volumes are different expressions of the same underlying truth: when people stop trusting the system to reward honest effort, they start gambling on outcomes instead.

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@kingkhurana10 @WeekendInvestng There is a genuine supply shock right now with Middle East disruptions, but unless it becomes structural, it doesn’t justify a permanent shift to high triple-digit oil.

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@WeekendInvestng Extrapolating via inflation or CAGR misses that

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@WeekendInvestng Oil isn’t really an inflation story—it’s more about marginal cost and supply elasticity. Prices can fall back toward cost, but that cost curve itself keeps shifting.

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@Macrobysunil Are sharp move in yields and dollar index not coorelated historically with Oil prices (USD denominated)

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

we have more bad news

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

Indian retail demand is relentless, effectively draining 🇨🇳 China's SGE inventory to record lows. Data shows ~90% of Chinese silver exports are flowing to India (via HK).

Can't short until this physical squeeze eases. Physical > Paper.

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@Iamsamirarora @Flipkart Hope helios mutual fund investor and believer will get the copy 😃

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

360 One silver etf is more than 15% up today

Illiquid etfs can seriously cause tracking issues. @WeekendInvestng ?

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@WealthWatcherCo @grok @NoLimitGains Good luck

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

@NoLimitGains done

[Kevin Xu @kevinxu]

you’re not gonna believe this

[Rashad Hajiyev @hajiyev_rashad]

Silver broke out from a 9-day flag formation yesterday and likely headed towards $70 over the coming days. If one did not buy it a few days ago, good luck buying it now. I think silver is going to rally steeper and steeper...

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

China’s National University of Defence Technology has revealed a tiny bionic spy drone designed to look like a mosquito.

[📹 Business Bulls]

[Abhishek Jain @Fiddlly]

CME "glitches," #Gold pulls Houdini acts, and spot #Silver gets mugged while futures sleep?

In thin markets, these halts massively distort price discovery. The timing is... impeccable, as always.
Paper games vs. Physical.

#Silver #Gold #CME #Economy

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

First CME “glitches” when Silver was about to break out.
Later #Gold prints a $40 liquidation wick twice and instantly recovers both times.
That’s not real selling.
That’s market plumbing under maximum stress.

[VBL’s Ghost @Sorenthek]

This is optically very bad.
Spot getting knocked down while futures are closed. This is extremely bad. This is straight up how things get manipulated.

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: CME Futures Halted

Incredibly just as Silver and Gold were about ready to launch 🚀

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Silver on the move again.
 
I could stare at this chart all day.
 
This time we’re looking at a historic breakout from a 50-plus–year cup-and-handle formation — one that 
can proceed with an explosive move beyond previous highs.
 
Game on.