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[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

$TBTC is my newest stock idea. Article is live on substack.

The company is trading at ~8x TTM P/E and has an under appreciated recurring revenue base with over 70% gross margins.

Downside is backed by more than 8m in cash and equivalents at 22m market cap.

Bull case requires them to sign new customers, perhaps $BUKS could use their services. If they signed a major casino deal, the sky is the limit.

My 12 month PT is: $12 as I expect new management to continue strong sales momentum and operating leverage to kick in.

[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

https://t.co/kQmqa1tdIS

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@user3737191 @BronsHoodi @LegionHoops @esidery Curry and dray are built for rings. You could give harden and mitchell prime lebron and they would still find a way to fuck it up

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@Dave113928Dude @BayAreaTrev Talking about 41 years old as if he didnt average 21/6/7 on his lowest usage ever. Its absolutely enough to make you competitive. Only sus part is can they make it through the season but i promise you spurs/thunder are not excited to match up with curry and bron come playoff time

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@Splashwhales @TheWarriorsTalk The only untouchable piece on the wizards is aj. If ad was off the table they would have extended him. They just want to drive up the price.

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@PayperRRoute @danb2125 @30Betterrrrr Dog 42yo bron is still an all star level player that you would get for like $10m. There is no bigger bargain on the market acting like we would be giving anything up for him.

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@Yonkoclips @TheDunkCentral @sam_amick Guard 1-5? I can tell you are a parody account.

[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

UPDATED $TRT vs $AEHR VALUATION MODEL

This includes both companies numbers from their latest quarters.

$TRT just grew semi revenues 141% YoY !

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@Zoidielicous @KlayForTrey Can you name me a single player kerr should’ve let shoot mid ranges. If you got a potential generational offensive talent like Peterson he gets to shoot whatever the hell he wants. When it’s podz or kuminga shooting 35% pull up midranges yea they probably shouldn’t.

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@grok @joeswanston69 @henryhasselliv @Balas_Wolverine @grok what is the live update

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@grok @joeswanston69 @henryhasselliv @Balas_Wolverine @grok what is the update on this

[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

$TMDX presented at the 45th Cannacord annual growth conference. Here are my notes after reading the transcript. Long story short is: management sounded even more bullish than they did during the Q2 earnings call.

Takeaways:

Current goal: 10k transplants by 2028 ($1B+ rev, ~30% op margin). With next-gen heart/lung trials + kidney launch, management now sees 20–30k transplants by 2030 which implies ~41.6% CAGR from 2024’s 3,715 OCS cases. This growth is not yet priced in. If they actually accomplish this we could see $TMDX nearing north of 3B rev in 2030. That’s a ~38.2% CAGR assuming 595m rev in 2025. That is WAY ahead of any analyst estimates.

Competition: Competition is far behind, OCS delivers 2.1% ischemic biliary complication rate vs competitor’s 11% (5× worse outcomes). $TMDX is expanding the entire transplant market with its OCS and NOP. The total number of transplants has grown ~20% from 2022 to 2024, but when excluding $TMDX the total growth is only 2%. This is a huge compliment to OCS technology and the breakthroughs achieved by this team.

Hub and logistics moat: 17 hubs, 21 jets, 100+ pilots, real-time NOP Connect tracking. 80–85% penetration target. Vertically integrated model lets them absorb 50% of transport costs on dry runs, further locking in centers. $TMDX logistics team is a major part of their moat. Hospitals trust the platform and the convenience of working with the entire $TMDX ecosystem makes it easy to lock in long-term partnerships.

Upcoming catalysts:
*Next-gen heart trial: Targets DBD hearts under 4h ischemic time, a massive segment currently unlabeled for OCS. Potential to extend preservation to 24 hours and stack cases like liver.
*Next-gen lung trial: Designed to materially boost lung adoption from today’s ~4% penetration.
*Kidney program: Late ’26/early ’27 start. Addresses 20k+ annual US cases where 30–35% of patients require dialysis post-transplant. Preclinical data is “extremely compelling” per Farhan Zapar, Chief of $TMDX Cardiothoracic Program.

2H 25 guide: expect at least 1H 25 volumes despite Q3 seasonality implies ~$620M FY25 vs midpoint $595M. Any trial-related revenue = upside. YoY growth is still massive even if QoQ slows down. CFO mentioned how current guidance is cautious and assumes the feared Q3 seasonality. They expect volume to bounce back during Q4. Basically every-time management goes on the record they mention how cautious guidance is. I fully expect guidance to be raised at least one more time this year. 620-640m is plausible and implies massive growth. What an amazing company, with an amazing future ahead.

$TMDX TO THE MOON 🚀🚀🚀

[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

$TMDX press release states trials will start during this upcoming Q4. Probably won’t affect this year’s projected revenue significantly, but analysts should start penciling in an extra 2-5% revenue to the 2026 estimates. Growth is going to be steady for a while. International expansion also right around the corner. Long $TMDX

[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

After the Q1 $TMDX earnings presentation, scorpion had made a big deal about the large number of accounts receivable featured in the $TMDX balance sheet. Scorpion mentioned how management was cooking the numbers. Guess what? $TMDX collected the shit out of those accounts and they are down ~40m QoQ. Try again shorts, clock is ticking.

[Matheus Lonning @mathlonning]

After blowout Q1 earnings $TMDX stock inched higher most days for over 3 weeks. It is possible we see a similar move higher, as shorts fight to close their positions. After an even more impressive Q2 and multiple catalysts in the next 6-12 months ATH seem inevitable. Not too late to get in the $TMDX train.

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@iamultramarine @KevonLooneyMuse Do you think steve kerr makes the trades 😭

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@kparks510 @kcleader @baby_face_goat No there wasnt. It would have been like 8 players for one. Also looney and gp2 are important depth pieces and their salary total is 17m and wiggins makes 26

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@vanman_1000 @anthonyVslater Podz has no trade value right now. Absolutely no point in trading him while he is clearly playing significantly below expectations

[f @FilipRajkovic66]

@EricLindquist Ben Simmons!