FinSightView

Making investing clear for everyone. Education on stocks, ETFs & general assets | Multi-asset insights | Finance simplified #SPX #NASDAQ #StockMarket #Invest

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows."

— Warren Buffett

#Fundamentals

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Market moves money from the impatient to the patient.

#SPX #QQQ

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

The US Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% in September from 4.1% in August. Remains well below the the historical average of 5.7%. Despite the weaker payroll report, another Fed rate hike is still likely before year-end
#USJobs #SPX #QQQ #FOMC

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Nvidia $NVDA hits new all-time high, surpassing a $5.72 trillion market cap.

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

The US jobs data is out and there are surprises:
Job creation was only 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% and monthly earnings growth moderating to only 0.1%. Add to that downward revisions to both July and August (about 60,000 jobs).
On the supply side, a more encouraging development with labor force participation increasing to 61.8%.
This will reinforce the impact of recent Fedspeak in calming expectations about an October rate hike.
#economy #markets #jobs #employment #earnings

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Guidance is too good

[App Economy Insights @EconomyApp]

$MU Micron Q4 FY26 (August quarter).

• Revenue +379% Y/Y to $54.2B ($2.8B beat).
☁️ Cloud Memory +258% Y/Y.
⚙️ Core Data Center +1,042% Y/Y.
📱 Mobile & Client +249% Y/Y.
🛞 Auto & Embedded +376% Y/Y.
• Non-GAAP EPS $33.42 ($1.60 beat).

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Still lot of data remaining to decide
#FOMC

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike fall to a new low 17% chance after the weaker than expected September jobs report.

Just days ago, markets saw a near 75% chance of an October rate hike.

We are seeing some insane volatility in the bond market.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Market expectations for an October rate hike fall to a new low 17% chance after the weaker than expected September jobs report.

Just days ago, markets saw a near 75% chance of an October rate hike.

We are seeing some insane volatility in the bond market.

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

“Stocks are a safe bet, but only if you stay invested long enough to ride out the corrections.”

— Peter Lynch

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

With yields edging higher again this morning, the entire US Treasury yield curve from 5- to 30-year maturities is now trading above 5%.
(Image from the @FT below.)
#economy #markets #bonds #yields

[Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm]

With yields edging higher again this morning, the entire US Treasury yield curve from 5- to 30-year maturities is now trading above 5%.
(Image from the @FT below.)
#economy #markets #bonds #yields

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

#QQQ #SPX

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Market expectations for an October interest rate hike are now up to a 64% chance.

The 10Y Note Yield is up +17 basis points today.

7.5%+ mortgages are on their way.

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Gold remains bullish in longterm #Gld

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Global physical gold-backed ETFs attracted +27.1 tonnes in inflows last week, the 3rd largest weekly inflow since January.

Demand was driven by the US, at +15.9 tonnes, followed by Europe and Asia, at +6.5 tonnes and +4.6 tonnes, respectively.

In Dollar terms, investors bought +$3.9 billion, the 4th-largest weekly inflow since February.

This also marks the 11th consecutive weekly inflow.

Over this period, global gold ETFs have attracted +208.3 tonnes in inflows, bringing total gold ETF holdings to a record 4,250 tonnes.

Demand for gold ETFs remains remarkably strong.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Global physical gold-backed ETFs attracted +27.1 tonnes in inflows last week, the 3rd largest weekly inflow since January.

Demand was driven by the US, at +15.9 tonnes, followed by Europe and Asia, at +6.5 tonnes and +4.6 tonnes, respectively.

In Dollar terms, investors bought +$3.9 billion, the 4th-largest weekly inflow since February.

This also marks the 11th consecutive weekly inflow.

Over this period, global gold ETFs have attracted +208.3 tonnes in inflows, bringing total gold ETF holdings to a record 4,250 tonnes.

Demand for gold ETFs remains remarkably strong.

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Summary:
1. Fed hikes interest rates by 25 bps for first time since July 2023
2. The decision was made in a 12-0 unanimous vote
3. Fed says the decision will support a "timelier" return to 2% inflation
4. Median Fed forecast shows one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2026
#FOMC

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

Data suggests that there will be at least 25bps increase. Let’s see

#FOMC

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's officially Fed day.

Markets now see a 93% chance that the Fed will announce its first rate hike since July 2023 today.

In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one.

If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994.

However, it's a particularly unusual time right now.

Fed Chair Warsh was appointed by President Trump just months ago with the expectation that he would CUT rates.

Now, markets expect Warsh's first change to the Fed Funds Rate to be a hike.

We expect a highly eventful day.

Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as the Fed decision is announced.

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

WALL STREET OVERWHELMINGLY EXPECTS FED HIKE

Nearly every major Wall Street bank now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates in September, according to a WSJ survey.

Market angle: expectations are shifting beyond this week’s hike toward another increase before year-end.

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HITS 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2023

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

The odds of a rate hike next week are increasing

#CPI #FOMC #USBonds #SPX #QQQ

[FinSightView @FinSightView]

@elerianm The upcoming FED decision will be interesting. Odds of a rate hike are increasing now.